1.
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REL. TO UA/ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Measurement in Defence
Communications.
Estonian Experience.

2.
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REL. TO UA/ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Communications cycle
Mission
Analysis
Formulating
Communications
Objectices
Identification of
Target Audiences
Target
Audience
Analysis
Planning and preparing themes,
messages, actions, products, senders
Pretesting
Adjusting
the plan
Executing
the plan
Evaluating
the effects
Modulating
evolving
situation

3.
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REL. TO UA/ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Case study 1. Background.
Independence Day Parade in Narva 2009
• Border-town to Russia, appx. 60000
inhabitants, 5% Estonians
• Regional economic backwardness
• Perceived local corruption
• Regular polling – the President, the
Defence Forces, the Defence League
are less trusted than in average in
Narva
• Russian diaspora votes for Putin
• High impact of Russian TV media
• Media research – Estonian national
broadcasting ETV only sports and
military parade are watched by
Russians

4.
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REL. TO UA/ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Background 2.
Independence Day Parade in Narva 2009
• 1993 – enclave attempt
• 2007 – Bronze soldier crisis
• 2008 – Russian aggression in Georgia
• RISC-research – concept of liberty is not well rooted in Ida-Virumaa

5.
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REL. TO UA/ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Independence Day Parade in Narva 2009
Analytic steps.
• Risk assessment, incl. communication risks
• Announcement of parade in Narva by the President of Republic
• Initial feedback from journalists from Ida-Viru briefings
• Field visits of communicators for atmospherical knowledge and visual planning
• Detailed TAA – demographics, psychographics, opinion leaders, interrelationships
of subgroups, symbols:
• Meta-analysis of former databases
• Interviews with well-networked locals
• Testing the messages
• Adjustment of messaging and PPP
• Pre-event communication
• The parade
• Measurement on venue, media analysis, add-on interviews

6.
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REL. TO UA/ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Independence Day Parade in Narva 2009.
How the measurement process helped
• Several high risks initially assessed were downplayed by analysis and
communication itself
• Instead of justifing military show of force, highlighting local patriotism
• Key TA – children; desired behaviour – come and see (with families)
• Identification of Estonians from other places as TA for participation
• No allied troops
• Careful selection of symbols and words, presence of people all over
Estonia led locals to be highly hospitable and to get rid of
troublemakers
• Due to solid knowledge politicians maintained message discipline
• Experience helped on preparation of parade in Narva 2015

7.
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REL. TO UA/ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
„Estonia begins from Narva“

8.
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REL. TO UA/ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Case study 2. Why in Afghanistan?
• Acceptance and resistance numbers coming close
• Diversification on reasoning support among different demographic groups
• Main themes:
• ALLIES HELP EACH OTHER
• NATO FUTURE IS AT STAKE
• BEST SOLDIERS
• ALL WORLD PARTICIPATES (50 states)
• BETTER LIFE IN AFGHANISTAN
• WE CARE OUR SOLDIERS
• JOB DONE, BACK HOME
• USSR-AFG BAD, WE GOOD
• PREVENT TALIBAN RETURN
• WE ARE SUCCESFUL IN AFG
• STOP INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM
• KEY TO COUNTER-NARCOTICS IS AFG
• Some skipped, some used only by visual, some reworded

9.
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REL. TO UA/ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Regular polling on national defence.
• Since 2001. Gives baseline.
• Initially quarterly, since 2008 twice a year
• Backbone questions:
• Trust towards different national institutions
• NATO membership
• Readiness to participate in defence operations
• Support to defence spending
• Currently more extensive:
• Security situation
• Justification of ongoing military operations
• Measurement of communication initiatives (veterans policy, defence education in schools,
popular military publications etc)
• Tool for communication per se, measurement of (percieved) performance, guide
for PPP, branding, messaging and countering hostile disinformation

10.
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REL. TO UA/ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Regular polling on national defence.
Key Lessons Learned.
• Regularily publicized polling data normalizes certain attitudes
• Beware of biases
• There are situational attitudes (beware the confoundings)
• Journalists do not read full reports
• In analysis don’t be self-centric (e.g. power structures)
• Media does not reflect public opinion
• Twitter does not reflect what counts for people
• New abstract concepts should not be põlled
• Cross-tables do not aggregate, use sophisticated analysis
• Don’t let politicians insert pet questions
• Don’t change your polling partner often
• Be clear and specific in wordings
• People are not rational

11.
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REL. TO UA/ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Reasoned action approach

12.
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REL. TO UA/ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Questions