Elaine wong a race to the finish

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2012 Women Leaders Conference

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Elaine wong a race to the finish

  1. 1. A Race to the Finish:Decision Making in Groups and Teams Elaine M. Wong Department of Communication UW-Milwaukee
  2. 2. Overview• Decision making (DM) models• DM in teams: Carter racing exercise• Debrief and discuss problems team DM © Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee
  3. 3. Rational Decision Making Models Select the Define best alternative the problem Evaluate Identify the the alternatives decision criteria Develop the Allocate weights alternatives to the criteria © Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee
  4. 4. What kinds of assumptions do rationaltheorists make?• People are “rational”• Use information optimally• Driven by outcomes, consumption• Framing does not matter• People know their preferences, preferences do not change• Probabilities can be calculated © Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee
  5. 5. Factors affecting decisions in organizations Organizational Level •System complexity •Time pressure •Politics Uncertainty Decision Individual Level •Decision making Group Level styles •Group effectiveness •Cognitive limitations •Group composition •Past experience •Group processes © Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee
  6. 6. March & Simon’s Administrative Model • Based on observations that people – have limited skills – are subject to cognitive biases – rarely have accurate and complete information – in short, assumes bounded rationality • Satisficing decisions – Select an acceptable solution © Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee
  7. 7. Carter Racing• Your dilemma: Should Carter Racing take part in the Pocono race? – Read case – Write down individual decision to race or not (provide justification- 5 min.) – Get into groups and reach a group decision to race or not (provide justification- 20-25 min.) © Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee
  8. 8. Carter Racing: push and pull factors Pros Cons-prize money from race -if race and fail: -lose tire sponsorship-gain a new sponsor -need to replace $20K(Goodstone tires) engine-have the money to put out -lose oil contract another car to their racing -wasted entry fees team -if withdraw without racing -lose $7,500 of entry fee -lose potential sponsorship with Goodstone and need to return money -end season with $ 50K deficit © Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee
  9. 9. Relationship between temperature andgasket failures 3.5 3 2.5 Head Gasket Failures 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 Am bient Air Tem perature (in degrees) © Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee
  10. 10. Ambient temperature for races withoutblown gaskets 3.5 3 2.5 Number of Races 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 Am bient Air Tem perature (in degrees)
  11. 11. Races with and without gasket failures 3.5 3 Number of incidents 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Am bient air tem perature (in degrees) gasket failures no gasket failures
  12. 12. Why your decision matters… © Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee
  13. 13. Cognitive biases in DM groups• Confirmation bias – Tendency to search for information that substantiates currently-held beliefs/goals.• Availability bias – Overestimating the frequency of vivid, extreme or recent events and causes• Representative bias – Failure to take into account base rates and overestimating the likelihood of rare events © Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee
  14. 14. More cognitive biases!• Anchoring and adjustment – Inappropriate decisions when initial amounts are too high or low• Groupshift – Tendency to exaggerate one’s initial position• Groupthink – When a group’s norm for consensus overrides the realistic appraisal of alternatives © Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee
  15. 15. Social problems in DM groups• Production blocking – Having to wait your turn to voice your ideas• Evaluation apprehension – Worried about how others will evaluate your ideas• Free riding/social loafing – The larger the group, the less individual effort exerted.• Conflict – Task: regarding how to approach the task – Emotional: typically based on value differences © Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee
  16. 16. Improving group DM• Generate more alternatives – Brainstorming • 1) Dont allow criticism; • 2) Encourage wild ideas; • 3) Go for quantity; • 4) Combine and/or improve on others ideas. – Nominal group technique • Go it alone first! © Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee
  17. 17. More on improving group DM• Generate task conflict – Minority dissent • Alternative perspective to majority views enhances divergent thinking at the subconscious level. – Devil’s advocate • Force the group to consider alternative solutions. © Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee

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