LEADERS MAKE THE FUTUREThinking Globally—10 Years Ahead<br />Bob Johansen<br />The University of Texas at Austin<br />McCo...
2<br />
VIRTUAL LAYER ON THE PHYSICAL WORLD<br />
4<br />
video will be the medium of choice<br />5<br />
video will be a part of almost every brand strategy<br />
video technologies will transform the inert surfaces to interactive venues…anything can be a display <br />
9<br />
10<br />
amateur videos will mix (even more) with broadcast media<br />
griefing will be (much more) a part of everyday life<br />
 from passive individual viewing to interactive engagement<br />
if you are 25 or less, the definition of a “generation” is about 6 years…the younger you are, the better your video litera...
Jump to Prezi Future of Video Presentation Here?<br />
To be successful in the future, here are some qualities and skills that leaders will need to learn…<br />18<br />
The VUCA World of LeadershipVolatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous<br />19<br />
20<br />
21<br />
22<br />
23<br />
THE BOOK OF PROVOCATION|faith in the future|conversations<br />
1964 World’s Fair Futurama<br />1939 World’s Fair Futurama<br />25<br />
26<br />The word “consumer” is obsolete…<br />
27<br />How do you turn attention into participation?<br />
28<br />
29<br />Power Laws and the Pyramid of Participation<br />ENGAGEMENT ECONOMY<br />“The most active participant is generally...
30<br />Behavior Change Framework<br />ENGAGEMENT ECONOMY<br />
31<br />CONVERSATIONAL MARKETING<br />• think of products <br />as stories<br />• engage and react, <br />but don’t exploi...
INSTRUCTABLES: a brand that is a community of prototypers<br />
33<br />CONVERSATIONAL MARKETING<br />
34<br />CONVERSATIONAL MARKETING<br />
35<br />CONVERSATIONAL MARKETING<br />
36<br />
Dilemmas…Leaders LIKE the space betweenjudging too soonanddeciding too late<br />
38<br />
SENSORS AND WIRELESS WILL BE EVERYWHERE<br />
Foundations:universally available mobile computing devices<br />2009: voice and text<br />&lt; 2019: smartphone world comp...
41<br />PROGRAMMABLE SOCIAL NETWORKS<br />
42<br />PROGRAMMABLE SOCIAL NETWORKS<br />
Superstruct<br />Su`per*struct&quot;, v. t. [L. superstructus, p. p. of superstruere to build upon; super over + struere t...
Anything that’s happening somewhere else on the net—beyond your device. <br />“The network is the computer” will finally c...
Networks that get better the more people who use them.<br />“If you try for just the cream, you will get nothing.” <br />C...
Recognition (patterns)<br />Mining (matching and curating patterns)<br />Synthesis (new models, simulations, renderings)<b...
The leading organizations will be highly interconnected thru global cloud computing. The more connections and combinations...
Superstructing tends to reject traditional forms of security and boundary-based protections…reciprocity is the currency of...
Superstructing is an inherently creative endeavor that emphasizes design, connections, and combinations.<br />“Combinatori...
HYPOTHESIS:<br />Superstructing the cloud will be the biggest innovation opportunity in history.<br />hypothesis: <br />
CHINESE LANGUAGE INTERNET<br />Tuangous will challenge traditional models of marketing, advertising, and selling<br />
54<br />
Extreme groups tend to be very skilled users of digital media<br />Extreme uncertainty will lead to more extreme groups<br...
The Global Health Economy <br />Cosmetics<br />Fashion<br />TraditionalHealthcare<br />Food andsupplements<br />Retail<br ...
personal health ecology<br />Source: Institute for the Future<br />
65<br />Signal:mobile health tools, anytime anyplace… <br />
66<br />
69<br />
70<br />
The Global Health Economy Includes Sustainability<br />Cosmetics<br />Fashion<br />TraditionalHealthcare<br />Food andsupp...
Fast Cycles of Innovation Through SHOPPER PROTOTPYING<br />
74<br />
75<br />
76<br />
77<br />
78<br />
79<br />
80<br />
commons<br />
commons: <br />a resource held and managed bythose who use it<br />
traditional commons: <br />geographically bounded<br />
traditional commons: <br />subject to depletion<br />
from traditional commons<br />to new commons<br />
87<br />
New commons:<br />Leverage small resources in the wider world<br />More people means more value<br />Build relationships w...
New commons example:<br />
New commons example:<br />A resource created and maintainedby those who use it<br />
New commons example:<br />Intangible plus material value<br />
What if you wanted to …<br />… rethink the debate of public vs. private funding of health care?<br />
What if you wanted to…<br />… transform unhealthy behaviors into healthy behaviors?<br />
Waiting for image from Kelly Traver<br />
New Commons: checklist for success<br />Evolvability: give everyone freedom to make improvements<br />Scale: take advantag...
Live long by looking long.<br />—Tao Te Ching<br />98<br />
99<br />
LEADERS MAKE THE FUTUREThinking Globally—10 Years Ahead<br />Bob Johansen<br />The University of Texas at Austin<br />McCo...
New commons:<br />Geographically agnostic, but community still counts<br />
New commons:<br />Not depletable, but ratherincreasing returns<br />
What if you wanted to …<br />… accelerate the growth of medical knowledge?<br />
IBM Corporate Service Corps<br />Immersion in strategic emerging markets<br />Work at the intersection of business, techno...
106<br />
Innovating innovation <br />INNOVATION STRUCTURE:<br /><ul><li>From closed IP to open innovation
From innovation centers to innovation non-centers
From siloed expertsto transdisciplinarians</li></ul>INNOVATION STRATEGY:<br /><ul><li>From competition to coopetition
From secrecy to quiet transparency
From big breakthroughs to combinatorial innovations</li></ul>107<br />
108<br />The VUCA World<br />Training and education = success<br />
109<br />
110<br />
2009 Ten-Year Forecast<br />Superstructing the Decade<br />Kathi VianDirector, Ten-Year Forecast <br />Institute for the F...
112<br />
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Dr. Bob Johansen at UT Austin 11 05 09

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Dr. Bob Johansen, author of Leaders Make the Future, spoke to members of the Supply Chain Management Center and the Center for Customer Insight and Marketing Solutions at the McCombs School of Business at The University of Texas at Austin. Johansen is affiliated with the Institute for the Future (IFTF).

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  • Numerous social scientists, including Clay Shirky, have shown that “there is a steep decline from a few wildly active participants to a large group of barely active participants … this is the general pattern in social media. The most active participant is gener- ally much more active than the participant in the number two slot, and far more active than average. A common power-law distribution across all emerging participatory systems.”17 To the uninitiated, a large number of people barely doing anything could seem like a mark of failure. But systems can effectively account for, and capitalize on, this variation. Are there micro- tasks or one-off tasks requiring minimal effort that individuals at the bottom of the distribution curve can successfully complete? Are there large-scale, more ambitious tasks that the top users can tackle to more effectively channel their extreme enthusiasm for the project? Crucially, all levels of participants are needed, not just the peak users. Those all-stars are performing for the barely active users, and enjoying the experience of leading the moderately active users. In this way, the community resembles a pyramid of participation, which is a term first coined by game company 42 Entertainment and now frequently used by many online game designers to describe their participation models.18 Emotionally, the base of the pyramid actively supports the top, even if they are making far fewer concrete contributions. But effectively, the peak supports the entire community and the larger goals of the project, by accepting the weight of the majority of contributions.
  • Numerous social scientists, including Clay Shirky, have shown that “there is a steep decline from a few wildly active participants to a large group of barely active participants … this is the general pattern in social media. The most active participant is gener- ally much more active than the participant in the number two slot, and far more active than average. A common power-law distribution across all emerging participatory systems.”17 To the uninitiated, a large number of people barely doing anything could seem like a mark of failure. But systems can effectively account for, and capitalize on, this variation. Are there micro- tasks or one-off tasks requiring minimal effort that individuals at the bottom of the distribution curve can successfully complete? Are there large-scale, more ambitious tasks that the top users can tackle to more effectively channel their extreme enthusiasm for the project? Crucially, all levels of participants are needed, not just the peak users. Those all-stars are performing for the barely active users, and enjoying the experience of leading the moderately active users. In this way, the community resembles a pyramid of participation, which is a term first coined by game company 42 Entertainment and now frequently used by many online game designers to describe their participation models.18 Emotionally, the base of the pyramid actively supports the top, even if they are making far fewer concrete contributions. But effectively, the peak supports the entire community and the larger goals of the project, by accepting the weight of the majority of contributions.
  • One clear lesson for developers of participatory systems, of course, is to design feel-good tasks that can be accomplished quickly and easily. It is less important at the onset to make some- thing interesting or challenging than it is to make something easy. Stanford researcher BJ Fogg backs this theory up in his work on a “Behavior Change Framework,” a theoretical framework that is designed to explain how to use technologies to get someone to actually do or contribute something. “You can either give people more ability by training, education, or tools—but none of these is easy. Or you can make the target behavior simpler—the right first step.”14 In the economy of engagement, the fastest way to turn attention to action may be to provide the user with a single, simple, feel-good task. Similarly, as Castranova notes, participation mechanics should be “minimally conceived and exquisitely polished.”15
  • Numerous social scientists, including Clay Shirky, have shown that “there is a steep decline from a few wildly active participants to a large group of barely active participants … this is the general pattern in social media. The most active participant is gener- ally much more active than the participant in the number two slot, and far more active than average. A common power-law distribution across all emerging participatory systems.”17 To the uninitiated, a large number of people barely doing anything could seem like a mark of failure. But systems can effectively account for, and capitalize on, this variation. Are there micro- tasks or one-off tasks requiring minimal effort that individuals at the bottom of the distribution curve can successfully complete? Are there large-scale, more ambitious tasks that the top users can tackle to more effectively channel their extreme enthusiasm for the project? Crucially, all levels of participants are needed, not just the peak users. Those all-stars are performing for the barely active users, and enjoying the experience of leading the moderately active users. In this way, the community resembles a pyramid of participation, which is a term first coined by game company 42 Entertainment and now frequently used by many online game designers to describe their participation models.18 Emotionally, the base of the pyramid actively supports the top, even if they are making far fewer concrete contributions. But effectively, the peak supports the entire community and the larger goals of the project, by accepting the weight of the majority of contributions.
  • Dr. Bob Johansen at UT Austin 11 05 09

    1. 1. LEADERS MAKE THE FUTUREThinking Globally—10 Years Ahead<br />Bob Johansen<br />The University of Texas at Austin<br />McCombs School of Business<br />November, 2009<br />© 2009 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. | SR-1235<br />
    2. 2. 2<br />
    3. 3. VIRTUAL LAYER ON THE PHYSICAL WORLD<br />
    4. 4. 4<br />
    5. 5. video will be the medium of choice<br />5<br />
    6. 6.
    7. 7. video will be a part of almost every brand strategy<br />
    8. 8. video technologies will transform the inert surfaces to interactive venues…anything can be a display <br />
    9. 9. 9<br />
    10. 10. 10<br />
    11. 11.
    12. 12.
    13. 13. amateur videos will mix (even more) with broadcast media<br />
    14. 14. griefing will be (much more) a part of everyday life<br />
    15. 15. from passive individual viewing to interactive engagement<br />
    16. 16. if you are 25 or less, the definition of a “generation” is about 6 years…the younger you are, the better your video literacy<br />
    17. 17. Jump to Prezi Future of Video Presentation Here?<br />
    18. 18. To be successful in the future, here are some qualities and skills that leaders will need to learn…<br />18<br />
    19. 19. The VUCA World of LeadershipVolatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous<br />19<br />
    20. 20. 20<br />
    21. 21. 21<br />
    22. 22. 22<br />
    23. 23. 23<br />
    24. 24. THE BOOK OF PROVOCATION|faith in the future|conversations<br />
    25. 25. 1964 World’s Fair Futurama<br />1939 World’s Fair Futurama<br />25<br />
    26. 26. 26<br />The word “consumer” is obsolete…<br />
    27. 27. 27<br />How do you turn attention into participation?<br />
    28. 28. 28<br />
    29. 29. 29<br />Power Laws and the Pyramid of Participation<br />ENGAGEMENT ECONOMY<br />“The most active participant is generally much more active than the participant in the number two slot, and far more active than average. A common power-law distribution across all emerging participatory systems.”-Clay Shirky, NYU<br />
    30. 30. 30<br />Behavior Change Framework<br />ENGAGEMENT ECONOMY<br />
    31. 31. 31<br />CONVERSATIONAL MARKETING<br />• think of products <br />as stories<br />• engage and react, <br />but don’t exploit<br />• become quietly<br /> transparent<br />• you can’t control <br />the conversation <br />31<br />
    32. 32. INSTRUCTABLES: a brand that is a community of prototypers<br />
    33. 33. 33<br />CONVERSATIONAL MARKETING<br />
    34. 34. 34<br />CONVERSATIONAL MARKETING<br />
    35. 35. 35<br />CONVERSATIONAL MARKETING<br />
    36. 36. 36<br />
    37. 37. Dilemmas…Leaders LIKE the space betweenjudging too soonanddeciding too late<br />
    38. 38. 38<br />
    39. 39. SENSORS AND WIRELESS WILL BE EVERYWHERE<br />
    40. 40. Foundations:universally available mobile computing devices<br />2009: voice and text<br />&lt; 2019: smartphone world computer<br />voice, video, web, GPS, sensors<br />
    41. 41. 41<br />PROGRAMMABLE SOCIAL NETWORKS<br />
    42. 42. 42<br />PROGRAMMABLE SOCIAL NETWORKS<br />
    43. 43. Superstruct<br />Su`per*struct&quot;, v. t. [L. superstructus, p. p. of superstruere to build upon; super over + struere to build. See Super-, and Structure.] To build (grow) over or upon another structure (life form); to erect (plant) upon a foundation (ecology)…<br />Challenge for leaders: <br /> to superstruct in the clouds…<br />43<br />
    44. 44. Anything that’s happening somewhere else on the net—beyond your device. <br />“The network is the computer” will finally come true within the next 10 years.<br />Cloud Computing:<br />
    45. 45. Networks that get better the more people who use them.<br />“If you try for just the cream, you will get nothing.” <br />Cloud Computing:<br />
    46. 46. Recognition (patterns)<br />Mining (matching and curating patterns)<br />Synthesis (new models, simulations, renderings)<br />Cloud Computing:<br />
    47. 47. The leading organizations will be highly interconnected thru global cloud computing. The more connections and combinations, the more innovation and the more potential value.<br />HYPOTHESIS:<br />
    48. 48. Superstructing tends to reject traditional forms of security and boundary-based protections…reciprocity is the currency of the cloud.<br />HYPOTHESIS:<br />
    49. 49. Superstructing is an inherently creative endeavor that emphasizes design, connections, and combinations.<br />“Combinatorial innovation” <br />Will Dunbar’s Number increase?<br />hypothesis: <br />HYPOTHESIS:<br />
    50. 50. HYPOTHESIS:<br />Superstructing the cloud will be the biggest innovation opportunity in history.<br />hypothesis: <br />
    51. 51.
    52. 52.
    53. 53. CHINESE LANGUAGE INTERNET<br />Tuangous will challenge traditional models of marketing, advertising, and selling<br />
    54. 54. 54<br />
    55. 55.
    56. 56.
    57. 57.
    58. 58. Extreme groups tend to be very skilled users of digital media<br />Extreme uncertainty will lead to more extreme groups<br />Dilemma: the more a brand tries to look and feel trustworthy, the more suspicious some consumers will become <br />Some will say about brands: “the nicer they are, the worse they are”<br />
    59. 59.
    60. 60.
    61. 61. The Global Health Economy <br />Cosmetics<br />Fashion<br />TraditionalHealthcare<br />Food andsupplements<br />Retail<br />Security<br />Buildingsupplies<br />Wellness<br />Financialservices<br />Consumerelectronics<br />Information<br />
    62. 62.
    63. 63.
    64. 64. personal health ecology<br />Source: Institute for the Future<br />
    65. 65. 65<br />Signal:mobile health tools, anytime anyplace… <br />
    66. 66. 66<br />
    67. 67.
    68. 68.
    69. 69. 69<br />
    70. 70. 70<br />
    71. 71. The Global Health Economy Includes Sustainability<br />Cosmetics<br />Fashion<br />TraditionalHealthcare<br />Food andsupplements<br />Retail<br />Security<br />Buildingsupplies<br />Wellness<br />Financialservices<br />Consumerelectronics<br />Information<br />
    72. 72.
    73. 73. Fast Cycles of Innovation Through SHOPPER PROTOTPYING<br />
    74. 74. 74<br />
    75. 75. 75<br />
    76. 76. 76<br />
    77. 77. 77<br />
    78. 78. 78<br />
    79. 79. 79<br />
    80. 80. 80<br />
    81. 81.
    82. 82. commons<br />
    83. 83. commons: <br />a resource held and managed bythose who use it<br />
    84. 84. traditional commons: <br />geographically bounded<br />
    85. 85. traditional commons: <br />subject to depletion<br />
    86. 86. from traditional commons<br />to new commons<br />
    87. 87. 87<br />
    88. 88. New commons:<br />Leverage small resources in the wider world<br />More people means more value<br />Build relationships with stakeholders in good times—not just in response to crises.<br />
    89. 89. New commons example:<br />
    90. 90. New commons example:<br />A resource created and maintainedby those who use it<br />
    91. 91. New commons example:<br />Intangible plus material value<br />
    92. 92. What if you wanted to …<br />… rethink the debate of public vs. private funding of health care?<br />
    93. 93.
    94. 94. What if you wanted to…<br />… transform unhealthy behaviors into healthy behaviors?<br />
    95. 95. Waiting for image from Kelly Traver<br />
    96. 96. New Commons: checklist for success<br />Evolvability: give everyone freedom to make improvements<br />Scale: take advantage of everyone’s contribution<br />Relevance: offer ambient information to visitors<br />Abundance: reverse scarcity through use of social capital<br />Adaptive emotions: harness awe and wonder<br />Optimism: amplify hope<br />… and make it FUN!<br />
    97. 97.
    98. 98. Live long by looking long.<br />—Tao Te Ching<br />98<br />
    99. 99. 99<br />
    100. 100. LEADERS MAKE THE FUTUREThinking Globally—10 Years Ahead<br />Bob Johansen<br />The University of Texas at Austin<br />McCombs School of Business<br />November, 2009<br />© 2009 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. | SR-1235<br />
    101. 101. New commons:<br />Geographically agnostic, but community still counts<br />
    102. 102. New commons:<br />Not depletable, but ratherincreasing returns<br />
    103. 103. What if you wanted to …<br />… accelerate the growth of medical knowledge?<br />
    104. 104.
    105. 105. IBM Corporate Service Corps<br />Immersion in strategic emerging markets<br />Work at the intersection of business, technology and society<br />Global teaming and leadership development<br />Exposure to diverse cultures<br />Outside the traditional office<br />Problem-solving in a challenging, ambiguous environment<br />Members of IBM CSC Ghana Team 1 in Kumasi, Ghana <br />(July–Aug 2008) <br />
    106. 106. 106<br />
    107. 107. Innovating innovation <br />INNOVATION STRUCTURE:<br /><ul><li>From closed IP to open innovation
    108. 108. From innovation centers to innovation non-centers
    109. 109. From siloed expertsto transdisciplinarians</li></ul>INNOVATION STRATEGY:<br /><ul><li>From competition to coopetition
    110. 110. From secrecy to quiet transparency
    111. 111. From big breakthroughs to combinatorial innovations</li></ul>107<br />
    112. 112. 108<br />The VUCA World<br />Training and education = success<br />
    113. 113. 109<br />
    114. 114. 110<br />
    115. 115. 2009 Ten-Year Forecast<br />Superstructing the Decade<br />Kathi VianDirector, Ten-Year Forecast <br />Institute for the Future<br />Ten-Year Forecast Annual Retreat<br />April 20–21, 2009<br />© 2009 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. | SR-1229<br />
    116. 116. 112<br />
    117. 117. 113<br />
    118. 118. 114<br />
    119. 119. 115<br />
    120. 120. 116<br />PROGRAMMABLE SOCIAL NETWORKS<br />

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