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The Role of the Oceans in Seamless Prediction, from Days to Seasons

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Ben Kirtman, Director, Cooperative Institute for Marine & Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Rosentiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science

UCAR Congressional Briefing - April 2018

Published in: Science
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The Role of the Oceans in Seamless Prediction, from Days to Seasons

  1. 1. The Role of the Oceans in Seamless Prediction from Days to Seasons: DISCOVERING CLUES THAT STRENGTHEN SUBSEASONAL TO SEASONAL PREDICTION Hosted by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research • April 24, 2018 Ben Kirtman, University of Miami - RSMAS
  2. 2. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018 Role of the Ocean in S2S Prediction v Ocean Memory – Ocean Evolution Below the Surface v Air-Sea Interactions – Exchange of Heat, Moisture and Momentum v Both are Essential for S2S Prediction (and Even for Weather)
  3. 3. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018 Evolution of the 1997-98 El Niño Event Warm Sub-Surface Temperature (Deeper Thermocline) Anomaly is the Precursor of the Coming Warm Event – Why We Can Predict
  4. 4. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018
  5. 5. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018
  6. 6. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018
  7. 7. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018 Mature Warm Event The Precursor of the Coming Cold Event
  8. 8. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018
  9. 9. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018
  10. 10. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018
  11. 11. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018 Importance of Air-Sea Interactions: Heat Exchange 0 0.5 -0.5 a b cObservations With Fine Structure Currents Without Fine Structure Currents
  12. 12. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018 SST: Without Fine Structure Currents SST: Observations 12 Importance of Air-Sea Interactions
  13. 13. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018 SST: Observational Estimate 13 Importance of Air-Sea Interactions SST: With Fine Structure Currents
  14. 14. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018 Rainfall: With and Without Fine Structure Currents Rainfall: Observational Estimate 14 Importance of Air-Sea Interactions
  15. 15. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018 Importance of Air-Sea Interaction: Sub-Seasonal Predictability FIG. 4. Time–lon diagrams of equatorial (10°S–10°N) precipitation anomalies (mm dayϪ1 ) averaged over the 10 events for (a) the coupled expts, (b) the Perfect SST expts, (c) the Fcst SST expts, (d) the Persisted SSTA expts, (e) the Monthly SST expts, and (f) the Clim SST expts. FIG. 4. Time–lon diagrams of equatorial (10°S–10°N) precipitation anomalies (mm dayϪ1 ) averaged over the 10 events for (a) the coupled expts, (b) the Perfect SST expts, (c) the Fcst SST expts, (d) the Persisted SSTA expts, (e) the Monthly SST expts, and (f) the Clim SST expts. 15 NOVEMBER 2008 PEGION AND KIRTMAN 5879 “Observations” “Forecast” with Air-Sea Interaction “Forecast” without Air-Sea Interactions
  16. 16. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018 25 26 26 26 28 03 25 52 27 27 29 29 0°N 0°N 120°E 140°E 20°N 120°E 140°E 2 24.5 25 25.5 26 26.5 27 27.5 28 28.5 29 29.5 30 30.5 31 31.5 40 Sea-surface temperature (°C) 20°N 120°E 140°E 120°E 140°E c TC Neoguri, uncoupled d TC Neoguri, coupled Best track Best track (starting d Novembe using the model, (b) using the model, (c) (starting d 2014) usin uncoupled and (d) TC using the model, wi observatio valid at 00 Novembe 00 UTC on 2014, resp ECMWF Newsletter No. 154 – Winter 2017/18 METEOROLOG 880 900 920 940 960 980 1000 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 4 Nov 2013 6 Nov 8 Nov 10 Nov 12 Nov 4 Nov 2013 6 Nov 8 Nov 10 Nov 12 Nov 4 Jul 2014 6 Jul 8 Jul 10 Jul 12 Jul 4 Jul 2014 6 Jul 8 Jul 10 Jul 12 Jul 880 900 920 940 960 980 1000 a TC Haiyan, surface heat flux b TC Haiyan, central pressure c TC Neoguri, surface heat flux d TC Neoguri, central pressure Netsurfaceheatflux(W/m2 ) Centralmeansea-levelpressure(hPa)Centralmeansea-levelpressure(hPa) Netsurfaceheatflux(W/m2 ) Coupled Uncoupled ‘Best track’ a TC Haiyan, uncoupled b TC Haiyan, coupled Figure 2 The plots show HRES forecasts of (a) net (sensible + latent) surface heat flux for TC Haiyan, (b) central pressure for TC Haiyan, (c) n surface heat flux for TC Neoguri, and (d) central pressure for TC Neoguri.‘Best track’estimates for central pressure are also shown. Hurricane Prediction: Tropical Cyclone Neoguri Without Air-Sea Interactions With Air-Sea Interactions Air-Sea Heat Exchange Intensity
  17. 17. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018 Role of the Ocean in S2S Prediction v Ocean Memory – Ocean Evolution Below the Surface v Air-Sea Interactions – Exchange of Heat, Moisture and Momentum v Both are Essential for S2S Prediction (and Even for Weather)

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