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Space Weather Prediction - Next Steps: An industry and military perspective

Vice Admiral (Retired) Conrad Lautenbacher, CEO, GeoOptics Inc., Pasadena, CA
June 2016 - UCAR Congressional Briefing on Space Weather Prediction

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Space Weather Prediction - Next Steps: An industry and military perspective

  1. 1. Space&Weather&Predic.on&Next&Steps:& An&industry&and&military&perspec.ve GeoOptics, Inc. Pasadena, CA June 14, 2016 Dr. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr. CEO Vice Admiral, ret. USN
  2. 2. Slide Title National Space Weather Strategy* “The Nation must continue to leverage existing public and private network of expertise and capabilities and pursue targeted enhancements to improve the ability to manage risks associated with space weather.” “The Strategy and Action Plan build on recent efforts to reduce risks associated with natural hazards and reduce risks associated with natural hazards and improve resilience of essential facilities and systems, aiming to foster a collaborative environment in which government, industry, and the American people can better understand and prepare for the effects of space weather.” . Introduction *https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/ final_nationalspaceweatherstrategy_20151028.pdf
  3. 3. Industry & Military Perspective National Space Weather Strategy* 1.  Establish+Benchmarks+for+Space+Weather+Events+ 2.  Enhance+Response+and+Recovery+Capabili>es+ 3.  Improve+Protec>on+and+Mi>ga>on+Efforts+Public+Good+&+ Government+Control+ 4.  Improve+Assessment,+Modeling,+and+Predic>on+of+Impacts+on+ Cri>cal+Infrastructure+ 5.  Improve+Space+Weather+Services+through+Advancing+ Understanding+and+Forecas>ng+ 6.  Increase+Interna>onal+Coopera>on+ Strategic Goals *https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/ final_nationalspaceweatherstrategy_20151028.pdf
  4. 4. Industry & Military Perspective American Commercial Space Weather Association •  Algorithm development •  Automatic event detections (flares, solar energetic particles, geoeffective CMEs) •  Calibration/validation •  Data assimilation •  GPS modeling and services •  HF propagation •  Numerical modeling and simulation •  Sun, interplanetary medium •  magnetosphere, ionosphere •  thermosphere, lower atmosphere •  Operational implementations / Research to Operations (R2O) •  Risk and threat analyses for infrastructure and space resources •  Satellite data analysis & data product development •  Sensor hardware & modeling •  Software tools •  Application development (web-based and smart phone) •  Data hosting / data product delivery •  Data / model visualization •  Space Situational Awareness (SSA) •  Spacecraft anomaly prediction and assessment •  Space weather data product and service distribution •  Space weather now-casting/forecasting Capabilities* *http://www.acswa.us/capabilities.html
  5. 5. Industry & Military Perspective Dilemma ? Federal+ Budget+ National needs To Meet
  6. 6. Industry & Military Perspective Partnership Federal+ Budget+ National needs Gov’tGov’t Space Weax Academia Space Weax Commercial Space Weax Academia Commercial To Meet Filled by: Coordinated National Public Private Effort Essential
  7. 7. Industry & Military Perspective U.S. Government Space Policy* •  Purchase+commercial+space+services+to+the+maximum+extent++ •  Modify+commercial+space+services+when+cost+effec>ve+&+>mely+ •  Explore+nontradi>onal+arrangements+for+acquiring+commercial+space+services+ •  Develop&USG&space&systems&only&when&no&US&commercial&service&available& •  Refrain&from&ac.vi.es&that&compete&with&US&commercial&space&ac.vi.es& •  Pursue&opportuni.es&for&transferring&rou.ne&space&func.ons&to&the& commercial&space&sector& •  Cul>vate+entrepreneurship+in+the+commercial+space+sector+through+ incen>ves++ •  Ensure+USG+space+technology+available+for+commercial+use+ To promote a robust domestic commercial space industry, agencies shall: *http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/national_space_policy_6-28-10.pdf
  8. 8. Industry & Military Perspective Space Weather Industry Products and Services Upstream Mid-Stream Downstream •  Research •  Observations •  Instrumentation •  Data •  Data Processing •  Computation •  Algorithms •  Models •  Forecasts •  Warnings •  Services •  Emergency Mgt Value Chain www.acswa.us
  9. 9. Industry & Military Perspective Military Perspective •  Solar+Storms+will+affect+military+opera>ons+and+readiness+ –  White+House+emergency+ac>on+will+be+ini>ated+based+on+current+plans+ –  Assets+may+have+to+be+moved+to+cover+areas+without+power+or+communica>on+ –  Reac>ons+are+>me+sensi>ve++ –  Military+forces+rou>nely+train+for+defense+against+nuclear+warfare+scenarios+ •  Nuclear+ElectroTmagne>c+Pulse+(EMP)+or+High+al>tude+EMP+(HEMP)+ –  Caused+by+nuclear+bomb+detona>on+ –  Effects+vary+based+of+al>tude+and+bomb+size+ –  Effects+(E3)+similar+to+a+geomagne>c+storm+caused+by+a+solar+flare+ –  Major+effects+include+communica>ons+disrup>ons+ –  Detona>on+in+outer+space+could+affect+long+term+viability+of+mul>ple+satellites+ •  2013,+House+considered+"Secure+HighTvoltage+Infrastructure+for+Electricity+from+ Lethal+Damage+Act"+++(surge+protec>on+~300+large+transformers.)+

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