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Research + Private Sector Partnerships - Climate information for social and economic good

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Alicia Karspeck, Climate Scientist and Associate Director of Research Partnerships, Jupiter Technology Systems, Inc.

UCAR Congressional Briefing - April 2018

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Research + Private Sector Partnerships - Climate information for social and economic good

  1. 1. RESEARCH AND PRIVATE SECTOR PARTNERSHIPS: WORKING TOGETHER TO PROVIDE CLIMATE-INFORMATION FOR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC GOOD Hosted by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research • April 24, 2018 Alicia R. Karspeck, PhD, Jupiter Climate Scientist and Associate Director of Research Partnerships
  2. 2. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018 About Jupiter Well-funded, early stage company based in Silicon Valley, Boulder, CO and NYC. Focused on providing climate and weather risk analytics at time-horizons of weeks-to-decades Jupiter views S2S as part of the spectrum of future-condition information that we can provide to clients
  3. 3. Proprietary & Confidential ENTERPRISE • Site selection • Design requirements • Mitigation strategy • Ongoing assessment • Operational risks • Shareholder disclosures GOVERNMENT • Redevelopment • Public health • Building guidelines • Flood prevention • Citizen communication • Emergency planning FINANCE • Investing • New insurance • Catastrophe bonds • Underwriting decisions • Energy markets • Asset allocation Climate-information has utility within many broad sectors (e.g.) 3 The potential economic value of weather-information in the U.S: $13B …Still discovering how much additional value there is in climate-information. Sources: DOC 2014: Value of Govn’t data; NWS Enterprise Analysis Report (2017)
  4. 4. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018 FloodScore provides clients information on how their risk of flooding may change in the context of future environmental conditions (e.g. sea level rise) Note: This product relies on open-source models, simulation sets, observations, and basic research funded by federal agencies: ● CMIP climate-model simulations (NSF, NASA, NOAA) ● special-project climate-simulations (NCAR-NSF/GEO) ● surge models (NOAA, NSF) ● hydrologic/hydraulic models (USACE) ● storm track research (NSF-GEO) ● sea level rise research (NSF-GEO, NOAA, EPA) ● regional NWP modeling (NSF, DoE, DoD) ● atmosphere and ocean observations (NOAA) Example product: Mapping future flood-risk in Charleston, SC
  5. 5. Private sector creation of commercially-viable, tailored products forecasts of physical climate-variables climate science climate-product development User-focused climate information Climate research sector creation of commercially-viable, tailored products climate-information for social/economic good discovery/invention decision making that considers future conditions
  6. 6. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018 Engagement of the Earth Science community for mutual benefit ● Direct sponsorship of cutting-edge climate science research Jupiter Community Science Program ! Foster collaborative R&D ! Connect private/philanthropic funders to promising research programs Jupiter’s engages with the climate-science community
  7. 7. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018 What makes climate forecast data VIABLE for commercial development? Jupiter supports federal funding into programs that promote these outcomes Quality of climate-forecast data Accessibility of climate-forecast data Continuity of climate-forecast data
  8. 8. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018 The higher the quality climate- forecasts the easier it is to serve and expand the market for climate information Key focal areas for federal funding: ● Climate variability research ● Sustained climate observations (for process study/model validation/forecast initialization) ● Coupled model development ● Engagement in prediction activities (realtime forecasting, retrospective forecasting, analysis of forecasts) Quality older version of forecast system betterworse Courtesy of B. Kirtman newer version of forecast system
  9. 9. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018 The “paradoxical crisis” for the use- ability of climate-science data: The more sophisticated models become, the harder it is to use them Earth System Models and their output are increasing in complexity and size ○ more components (land, ocean, atm, ice) ○ more processes ○ higher resolution ○ larger ensemble sets Storage, distribution and analysis practices should be anticipating these trends … Accessibility low-res ocean simulation (100 km) high-res ocean simulation (10 km) observations sea surface temperatures
  10. 10. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018 Accessibility (cont…) Managing the data tsunami: …data-management and distribution should not be an afterthought. 75 sec/calc 375 sec/calc 250 days saved Changes in data-storage patterns can lead to profound savings in analysis time. Key focal areas for federal funding to ease data-access bottlenecks: ● Use-case directed storage/distribution ● Software for faster access/subsetting/analysis of large data- sets ● More personnel funded to manage data, respond to data requests. Rule of thumb: datasets > 1TB require concerted attention
  11. 11. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018 Open and dependable relationships with climate-forecast providers ● Communication by federal agencies about their plans for supporting/extending the climate prediction research ● Private sector input into funding priorities ● Consistency and timeliness of data- delivery ● Continuity/longevity of data-streams (it takes time to develop products and markets) Continuity of data and relationships
  12. 12. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018 Contact us to hear more about Jupiter, our views on research/public/private partnerships, and how the federal government can support S2S prediction Alicia R. Karspeck, PhD alicia.karspeck@jupiterintel.com Quality of climate-forecast data Accessibility of climate-forecast data Continuity of climate-forecast data
  13. 13. THE OCEANS & FORECASTING • 2018 EXTRA SLIDES

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