Presentation ISCRAM 2012


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Presentation ISCRAM 2012

  1. 1. SLIDESLIDE >WWW.FLOODCONTROL2015.COM Towards realtime Twitter analysis ISCRAM 2012 23 april 2012 Arnout de Vries (TNO), Teun Terpstra (HKV), Geerte Paradies (TNO), Richard Stronkman (Twitcident)
  2. 2. Social sensors and citizen journalism 1 minute ago Analysis (Pukkelpop) and research method (Twitcident) 5 minutes ago Results: early warning, facts and feelings, resilience 10 minutes ago 20 minutes ago Goal: “Monitor and analyze Twitter during incidents in real-time to improve crisis management” 15 minutes ago Discussion and future work
  3. 3. SLIDESLIDESLIDE 10 januari 2011 M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 3
  4. 4. SLIDESLIDESLIDE Social media & emergency management 4 Red river floods
  5. 5. 6 Pukkelpop Storm incident 2011 August 18th 2011, 6.15 PM
  6. 6. 7 Finding and filtering: keywords, syntactical, context and semantic features. More info:
  7. 7. SLIDESLIDESLIDE Pukkelpop Twitter visual analysis Tweets /min 156.157 tweets total in 2 days 8 576 tweets/min
  8. 8. SLIDESLIDESLIDE Pukkelpop Twitter visual analysis Tweets /minSelection of 96.957 tweets between noon and midnight 9 12 AM 12 PM
  9. 9. SLIDESLIDESLIDE Geographical spread of Tweets Total spread afterwards: 10
  10. 10. SLIDESLIDESLIDE Pukkelpop Twitter: filter messages Messages about (rumours on) casualties and deaths 1. Early warning 2. Damage and casualties 3. ‘Community resilience’ ‘Dangerous weather’ messages as early indicators People offering help in various ways (e.g. twitterlists) 11
  11. 11. SLIDESLIDESLIDE Early warnings? WWW.FLOODCONTROL2015.COM 12 Words used 25 minutes before impact 1. Weather: storm, thunder, cloud bursts, hail, …. 2. Locations: Brussel, Gent, Hasselt, … 3. Severity: intense, enormous, drama, ‘hell’, !… Impact stormIndication? “ ”
  12. 12. SLIDESLIDESLIDE Pukkelpop Twitter: early warning 1. Early warning I pity those on #pukkelpop ! It was pitch dark here for over 15 minutes! And hail storm, lightning, thunder, …OMG! 13
  13. 13. 14 Damage: photo’s from eye witnesses
  14. 14. SLIDESLIDESLIDE Pukkelpop Twitter: damage & casualties 2. Damage and casualties SMS from the Standard: according to fireman of Sint-Truiden 6 deaths on #pp11 because of storm #shitman 15 • Retweets expressing doubts • Some messages reach 10k users in 3 minutes • Hyperlinks (news or photo websites) high propagation
  15. 15. SLIDESLIDESLIDE Pukkelpop Twitter: community resilience 3. ‘Community resilience’ #Hasselthelpt 2 beds, shower and breakfast, ask @Daffybal - pick up at church possible, we live behind the festival grounds 16 • #Hasselthelpt, #Genthelpt, #Brusselhelpt, … • Creation of Twitterlists (e.g. PatriceF) • Sharing of phone numbers • Creation of Twitter accounts
  16. 16. SLIDESLIDESLIDE Festival goers were taken by surprise, so it seems. But (weak) signals were there. Retweets accounted for large amounts of tweets on damage and casualties and only occurred when pictures (in case of damage) or links to official news sites (i case of casualties) were available. This suggests social norms on twitter prevent propagation of unverified information about delicate topics. Solidarity is important in coping with disasters (Starbird et al). Within 2 hours the #hasselthelpt initiative was followed massively. This suggests social media can facilitate community resilience that originate from nearby people. Twitter monitoring could enable crisis managers to confirm or refute rumors and take emotional responses into account in crisis communications. Discussion WWW.FLOODCONTROL2015.COM 17
  17. 17. SLIDESLIDESLIDE Early detection and early warning: Examples: Queensday, (death) threats and weather conditions Filters for damage and casualties need to be verified for other incidents. New topic filters such as resilience need more research. Retweets and source credibility are indeed related. Images and links, besides the author, play an important role in assessing credibility. Indicators for assessing real-time credibility seem possible and are valuable for crisis response teams. Future research WWW.FLOODCONTROL2015.COM 18
  18. 18. SLIDESLIDESLIDE Visual analysis provide a good start to identify abnormalities Filtering on damage could have provided pictorial 'evidence' # of retweets attract attention and point toward a hot topic from a 'trusted' source, and news about damage or casualties mostly have high propagation Not just about technology: organizational solutions needed for embedding social media usage in crisis communications, such as more experience, knowledge and policies. Implications for crisis management WWW.FLOODCONTROL2015.COM 19
  19. 19. Questions? #daretoask
  20. 20. SLIDESLIDESLIDE Thank you! WWW.FLOODCONTROL2015.COM 21 Demonstration: TUESDAY afternoon 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM at Concourse level
  21. 21. SLIDESLIDESLIDE TIMELINE WWW.FLOODCONTROL2015.COM 22 August 19thAugust 18th 2011 Indications of heaviness of storm heading to Pukkelpop from citizens Start incident: heavy rainfall 16:22 18:15 Reports about deaths 19:03 Reports about damage and casualties 18:30 First relevant pictures showing damage (collapse of tent) 18:35 First pictures showing panic Dutch press starts reporting 18:24 19:19 Belgian press started reporting (individual accounts) 19:12 Large amounts of rumour spread about #deaths 19:15 Deaths semi- confirmed by individual journalist 19:38 20:19 Initiation of #Hasselthelpt @Pukkelpop first message since incident 19:53 @Pukkelpop message with “ handelingsper spectief” (phone number and URL) 21:56 Press conference (TV): 2 deaths and 40 injured 20:50 Announcement that festival is cancelled for the night 19:40 Fire depts Sint Truiden say 6 deaths and Hasselt says 1 death 7 injured 20:06 GSM network is fixed “SMS use only” is asked for ~21:00 Official news: 5 deaths, tens injured, festival cancelled 19thaug12:00AM
  22. 22. SLIDESLIDESLIDE Pukkelpop Twitter: damage & casualties Tweets/min on ‘Damage’ topic Tweets/min on 'Casualty' topic 23 News media rumors
  23. 23. SLIDESLIDESLIDE Pukkelpop Twitter visual analysis Tweets /minOf which 94.109 were created from the start of the disaster (6:15 PM) 24
  24. 24. SLIDESLIDESLIDE Flood control 2015 programme: Stimulates the development of (IT) innovations in order to promote smarter protection against floods and other water related hazards. Social media and crisis management project Gathering information from technical sensors e.g. weather, dikes, waterlevels -> But also from the HUMAN sensor which information could humans provide? Flood control 2015 WWW.FLOODCONTROL2015.COM 25