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@FORTRESS_EUhttp://fortress-project.eu
Kim Hagen, Hayley Watson & Tom Ritchey
27 May 2015, ISCRAM
Experiencing GMA as a me...
@FORTRESS_EU
http://fortress-project.eu
CASCADING EFFECTS
Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant
Supply of power cut off
Co...
@FORTRESS_EU
http://fortress-project.eu
THE FORTRESS CHALLENGE
• Understanding the web of interdependent
infrastructures, ...
@FORTRESS_EU
http://fortress-project.eu
GETTING ON THE ‘SAME PAGE’
The solution to ‘getting on the same page’ in
FORTRESS ...
@FORTRESS_EU
http://fortress-project.eu
GENERAL MORPHOLOGICAL
ANALYSIS (GMA)
• Non-quantified modeling method
• Can enable...
@FORTRESS_EU
http://fortress-project.eu
GMA IN FORTRESS
• 3 workshops: academics, industry, end users.
• Aim: generating a...
@FORTRESS_EU
http://fortress-project.eu
@FORTRESS_EU
http://fortress-project.eu
THE PROBLEM SPACE
• A visual overview in table form, in which the
parameters of re...
@FORTRESS_EU
http://fortress-project.eu
PROBLEM SPACE
Case Types of hazard Principal nature(s) of
impact
Scope of impact O...
@FORTRESS_EU
http://fortress-project.eu
WEIGHTED INFLUENCE DIAGRAM
@FORTRESS_EU
http://fortress-project.eu
OUR EXPERIENCE OF GMA
• Frustration regarding not knowing what was expected
• Chal...
@FORTRESS_EU
http://fortress-project.eu
BENEFITS
• Gaining a comprehensive overview of the
concepts and associated variabl...
@FORTRESS_EU
http://fortress-project.eu
@FORTRESS_EU
http://fortress-project.eu
@FORTRESS_EU
http://fortress-project.eu
OBSTACLES
• For those participating in GMA in FORTRESS
a key lesson learnt was the...
@FORTRESS_EUhttp://fortress-project.eu
THANK YOU
kim.hagen@trilateralresearch.com /@hag_kim
@Trilateral_UK
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FORTRESS General Morphological Analysis presentation - ISCRAM 2015

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Presentation on FORTRESS project's use of General Morphological Analysis. ISCRAM Conference 2015.

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FORTRESS General Morphological Analysis presentation - ISCRAM 2015

  1. 1. @FORTRESS_EUhttp://fortress-project.eu Kim Hagen, Hayley Watson & Tom Ritchey 27 May 2015, ISCRAM Experiencing GMA as a means of developing a conceptual model of the problem space involving understanding cascading effects in crises
  2. 2. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu CASCADING EFFECTS Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Supply of power cut off Cooling systems stopped working Overheating fuel rods Release of radioactive material • ‘Situations where a disruption of one element, such as infrastructure, causes a sequence of disruptive events, which can cause deleterious impacts far beyond the initial impacts of the crisis (Little, 2010)’
  3. 3. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu THE FORTRESS CHALLENGE • Understanding the web of interdependent infrastructures, systems and stakeholders involved in managing a crisis
  4. 4. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu GETTING ON THE ‘SAME PAGE’ The solution to ‘getting on the same page’ in FORTRESS was General Morphological Analysis (GMA)
  5. 5. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu GENERAL MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS (GMA) • Non-quantified modeling method • Can enable a shared understanding of the various interdependencies involved in cascading crises, by creating a conceptual model of a problem space
  6. 6. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu GMA IN FORTRESS • 3 workshops: academics, industry, end users. • Aim: generating a common understanding (problem space) of important parameters/elements to be considered in the analysis of cascading effects in crises, and how these elements relate to one another
  7. 7. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu
  8. 8. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu THE PROBLEM SPACE • A visual overview in table form, in which the parameters of relevance, as identified by workshop participants, were listed in cells in the top row, along with the range of their options in the column below the cell. • A total of twenty parameters were identified in the first workshop. These parameters and their ranges were adjusted and refined in two subsequent workshops.
  9. 9. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu PROBLEM SPACE Case Types of hazard Principal nature(s) of impact Scope of impact Onset of crisis Scop Tsunami-Fukushima, Japan, 2011 Natural Physical Global Sudden Glob Firework factory explosion (2000) - Netherlands Social Social / Psychological International & cross border Rapid (Hours/days) Inte London attacks (2005) Technological Economic National Slow (Weeks) Nati Heat wave 2003 (France) Antagonistic Political Regional Creeping (months/years) Reg Malaysia MH17 plane crash (2014) Local Loca Avalanche Disaster of Galtür, AT (1999)
  10. 10. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu WEIGHTED INFLUENCE DIAGRAM
  11. 11. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu OUR EXPERIENCE OF GMA • Frustration regarding not knowing what was expected • Challenging in combining perspectives • Experience facilitator- invaluable
  12. 12. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu BENEFITS • Gaining a comprehensive overview of the concepts and associated variables requiring our attention within the analysis of historical case studies of cascading effects in the project, • Helping to build relationships and a shared understanding of concepts among a multidisciplinary team, which is commonly an obstacle in multidisciplinary research. • Provided a computerised model for subsequent steps in FORTRESS
  13. 13. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu
  14. 14. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu
  15. 15. @FORTRESS_EU http://fortress-project.eu OBSTACLES • For those participating in GMA in FORTRESS a key lesson learnt was the need for adequate time to fully explore and develop the problem space in the first workshop. More time could have enhanced efficiency and saved time in later stages of the project.
  16. 16. @FORTRESS_EUhttp://fortress-project.eu THANK YOU kim.hagen@trilateralresearch.com /@hag_kim @Trilateral_UK

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