TECHNOLOGY What’s THE NEW NEXT?TrendsSpotting
4th annual digital prediction series is featuring the predictions of digital andmarketing experts on the big changes awaiting us in the coming year.Looking at 2010 and observing the trends we’ve seen that year – we aim at figuring out what willbe new in 2011.THE NEW NEXT initiative is focused not in what will happen in 2011 (as most predictions youfind) but rather on the new trends emerging out of what we have seen earlier.What we have learned from working with different consumer domains is that one consumerbehavior can develop into another behavior. People are looking for ways to display thesebehaviors. Technologies offer them such solutions.Influenced by consumer preferences as well as by external circumstances, new industries areopening up to answer consumer needs.We are interested in finding out how such future developments may unfold next year.On the basis of the new trends identified we have updated our prediction model (featured onthe last slide).
Internet:of Things “ Internet of
Cars will be the surprise hit of the year. In 2011, I predict that cars (not smart homes, smart grids, etc.) will beRichard MacManus where the most innovation and mainstreamFounder and Editor at ReadWriteWeb. attention happens for Internet of Things “ technologies. Apps like AutoBot will gain traction over 2011. The Internet “ Computer programs that can predict the time and place of traffic jams; “ Environmental information generated by of cars sensors in cars and phones.Brian David Johnson “ In 2011 we’ll see the continued growth of the car as a mobile device that carries you. Cars will only get smarter, more connected,Futurist at Intel easier to use and just generally much more awesome, as computational devices make “ our days easier and our rides to work or the supermarket more safe.
Internet:of Things“ Smart homes with
Web-connected automation will slip into mainstream conversation, but near- field communications will still be confusing to Kevin Tofel “ most people, due to a lack of mobile payment GigaOm standards. Smart Homes Screens Everywhere“ Consumers are beginning to simply see all of The Bed our devices as just screens. It’s not about what device will win over all the other devices; it’s about the device and screen that you have handy — it’s the screen that best fits what we “ Brian David Johnson Futurist at Intel want to do and where we are. The next computing environment: The bed
Internet:of Things “ Internet of
things innovations will generate smart notifications and alerts systems based on information on users’ Notifications activities and whereabouts. We will see medical innovations Alerts informing physicians about their clients Accuracy in Real Time medical status. This year accuracy and “ credibility in real time will be tested.Dr. Taly WeissCEO and Head of ResearchTrendsSpotting Market Research
APPS Marketplace “ In 2011
the AppStore and the equivalent Windows software marketplace will significantly change the way software is Paul Matthews marketed and distributed. Combining the CEO at New Zealand Computer Society ease of finding, purchasing, installing and updating software with an across-the- board re-calibration downwards of software pricing, it’s inevitable that SaaSShift in distribution traditional software distribution channels. “ adoption will take a hit in 2011 as will more of software App Stores Klint Finley Writer for ReadWriteEnterprise Read Write Web “ By the end of 2011 almost all the big “ social enterprise players will have some sort of "app store" offering.
TABLETS “ Tablets tend to
live in the living room. They lend themselves more to leisure than PCs, and to more protracted content consumption than Jeremy Liew Lightspeed Venture Partners phones. Killer apps might include, video, music, “ games, and ―reading‖, broadly defined. disruption. Entertainment Focus “ At the moment, consumers questions about whether to buy a tablet or laptop THE IMPACT OF TABLETS could reduce the “ Tablets to replace total amount of laptop units sold by as much asTim Bajarin Laptops?Futuristic Analyst 10 to 12 % over the next 1 to 2 years. “ Gartner forecasts that media tablets (such “ as the Apple iPad) will reach 54.8 million units in 2011.
TABLETS “ We expect sales
to more than double in 2011 to 24.1 million units. US consumers will buy more PCs in 2015 than they do in 2010. Growth will come from new form factors like tablets, but laptop sales will increase steadily also. Tablets replace desktops? Tablets will cannibalize netbooks, outselling netbooks starting in 2012. In 2015, 23% of all PCs sold to consumers in the US will be tablets.Sarah Rotman Epps Desktops aren’t dead. Fewer desktops will beConsumer Product Strategyat Forrester sold in 2015 than in 2010, but in 2015, they’ll “ still be used by more consumers than any other type of PC.
GAMING PLATFORMS“ Microsoft’s Kinect product
will keep the Xbox a leading platform and the device will continue to be used for various interface hacks. No Kevin Tofel GigaOm other gaming platform will have a similar “ peripheral that unseats the Kinect as a top- seller. Kinetic the leading gaming platform Gamification“ In 2011, we’ll start to see the first successful examples of game mechanics used for health — largely around big Health Monitoring data streams and mobile, building off Gabe Zichermann “ Fitbit, Nike+ GPS and other monitoring and measurement ecosystems. Author, CEO at BeaME
GAMING PLATFORMS “ Since gaming
is no longer limited to "gamers" -- traditionally younger men -- that the opportunity in that sector is enormous. "Gaming is pervasive: from home consoles to mobile phones to social networks, New target clock." “ more people are gaming around the audiences everywhereAaron Greenberg,Chief of staff of Microsoft Interactive Entertainment,
Ebooks“ Growth to rocket in
2011, thanks to a plentiful supply of cheap eReaders and a long overdue price war on eBooks between Amazon, Barnes&Noble and others. I predict it will reach Richard MacManus Founder and Editor at ReadWriteWeb. “ 20%, in other words one in five books in 2011 will be sold as an eBook.“ Price war Ebooks sales will approach 20% of trade book revenues on a monthly basis by the end of 2011 in the US, yet ebooks will account for one third or Indie author stars more of unit consumption as Ebooks (will) cost less and early ebook adopters read more. Agents write the next chapter of the ebook revolution Self publishing goes from option of last resort “ to option of first resort among unpublished Mark Coker Founder of Smashwords authors
Business Analytics“ Simulations to predict
future outcome in real- time. Social Analytics and Context-Aware Computing.- 2013, more than half of Fortune 500 companies will have context-aware computing initiatives and by 2016, one-third of “ worldwide mobile consumer marketing will be context-awareness-based. Future Predictions Social and Context“ Aware Next-gen BI takes shape, combining real-time access with pervasiveness, agility, and self-service Business rules processing and policy-based SOA move to the mainstream: -Analytics target text and social networks, “ -IT embraces planning and analysis tools to manage the future.
TV VIDEO “ Connected TV
Platform Wars Google vs. Apple vs. the dominant TV brands. These platforms will largely be based on a similar architecture, offering app and content publishers a common model for creating device-oriented applications and WebJeremy AllaireCEO at Brightcove experiences. Over-The-Top TV Subscriptions will emerge, but TV Apps largely fail Facebook and Twitter will become larger sources of Social Traffic video traffic than Google search Video Ubiquity—Every Company is a Media CompanyBranded Video Battle Over Video Delivery Standards Heats Up “ “Liz Shannon MillerCo-editor at NewTeeVee In 2011, it seems inevitable that the notion of ―viral video‖GigaOm as a core element of the industry will fade away. Focus will be on the creation of recognizable brands, producing “ sustainable content that can be connected with advertisers.
Cloud computing“You will build a
private cloud, and it will fail ...Hosted private clouds will outnumber internalclouds 3:1 - empowered employees go to publiccloud services for speed. Most enterprises aren’tready, but service providers will be ready in 2011making it your fast path to private cloud.Community clouds will arrive, due to Private Cloudscompliance. Community CloudsCloud economics gets switched on. Being “ Cloud Economicscheap is good.Cloud standards still won’t be here James Staten VP, Principal Analyst at Gartner
Cloud computing “ Cloud printing
to become the next big thing in the printing industry – companies will begin to realise that the underlying theme is the mobility of the knowledge worker and that business processes, ofZac Butcher which the majority still involve paper somewhereDirector at InfoTrends along the line, will need to adapt, evolve and maybe be totally reinvented for the next computing age. “Cloud Printing Cloud Slows “ Down The cloud will burst –cloud will show some of the issues – latency, service levels, lack ofClive Longbottom predictability – (this will bring to) a strong drive forFounder of Quocirca an agreed means of standardising technical contracts on the fly and for monitoring and managing performance across private, and to a lesser extent, public clouds. “
• Slide 3: Read Write
Web, December 2010 , SFGate, December 2010, Mashable, December 2010 • Slide 4: GigaOm, December 2010 • Slide 5: TrendsSpotting Market Research • Slide 6: Computer World, January 2011, Read Write Web, December 2010References • Slide 7: LightSpeed, December 2010, Gartner, November 2010, PcMag, December 2010 • Slide 8: Forrester Market Research, June 2010, January 2011 • Slide 9: GigaOm, December 2010, Mashable, December 2010 • Slide 10: GigaOm, December 2010, AdAge, January 2011 • Slide 11: Read Write Web, December 2010, The Huffington Post, December 2010 • Slide 12: Gartner, October 2010, Forrester Research October2010 • Slide 13: TechCrunch, December 2010, GigaOm, December 2010 • Slide 14: Forrester Market Research, November 2010 • Slide 15: Technobable 2.0, December 2010 • Slide 16: Trendsspotting Prediction Model, December 2010
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