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Influencers On Online
Marketing 2009 Predictions
O
          eMarketer's Predictions for 2009                                         N
                                                                                   L
                                                                                   I
    Online Ad Spending: Still Solid Choice


       45
                                                                                   N
                                                                                   E
                 % rise in video ads in 2009 to reach $850 million


       14.9                                                                        M
                       % growth in search marketing to reach $12.3 billion
                                                                                   A
       8.9                                                                         R
                   % growth in US internet ad spending to reach $25.7 billion.
                                                                                   K
    2009 - the lowest year-over-year increase for online advertising ever. Yet a
    robust increase compared with other media.                                     E
                                                                                   T
    Retail E-Commerce: Record-Setting Declines                                     I
2
          4
                                                                                   N
0              % growth in retail sales (excluding travel)                         G
0
9
O
    Consumer Internet Predictions for 2009                                                N
                                                                                          L
                                                                                          I
             Jeremy Liew
                                                                                          N
             Lightspeed Venture Partners
             http://lsvp.wordpress.com
                                                                                          E
         Consumers seek cheap thrills
     1
         Consumers seeking today's lowest cost methods to entertain themselves: Free
                                                                                          M
         entertainment provided by the social media
                                                                                          A
     2   “Trading real money for virtual goods” business model
                                                                                          R
         in the US
         People will pay to allow extra powers in the game or customize their character   K
         looks: see also - prepaid game cards, incentive marketing.
                                                                                          E
         Web 2.0 leaders pull further away from the pack
     3
                                                                                          T
         Advertisers will want to buy advertising on big, well known websites (Yahoo,
         AOL). Web 2.0 - Facebook + Digg - strong revenue growth .
                                                                                          I
2        Online ad prices continue to fall
     4                                                                                    N
0                                                                                         G
         Getting serious about monetizing non U.S. traffic
     5
0
9
O
    Bullish On Online Search, Bearish On Newspapers
                                                                             N
                                                                             L
                                                                             I
                                                                             N
                                                                             E

                                                                             M
                                                                             A
                                                                             R
                                                                             K
                                                                             E
                                                                             T
                                                                             I
        2009 total U.S. advertising will decrease 10.0% to $252.1 billion
2                                                                            N
        U.S. Internet advertising revenue will grow 6.1% to $28.3 billion,
0       4% growth in Display, 20% growth in Search                           G
0
9
Online advertising demonstrates it isn't                                   O
                immune to gravity                                                N
                                                                                 L
                                                                                 I
             John Fine
                                                                                 N
             BusinessWeek
             www.businessweek.com
                                                                                 E

                                                                                 M
          Online advertising demonstrates it isn't immune to gravity.            A
     Online display ad spending underperforms (low) expectations for '09.
                                                                                 R
    Those predicting an explosion in advertising on social networks are sorely
                                                                                 K
                                 disappointed .
                                                                                 E
                                                                                 T
                                                                                 I
2                                                                                N
0                                                                                G
0
9
O
    Everyone who doesn’t see misery next year is delusional
                                                                       N
                                                                       L
                                                                       I
              Nick Denton
                                                                       N
              Head of Gawker Media
              mediamemo.allthingsd.com
                                                                       E

                                                                       M
                                                                       A
         “Everyone who doesn’t see misery next year is delusional “    R
                                                                       K
        “Anyone who isn’t prepared for ads to go down 40 % is crazy”
                                                                       E
                                                                       T
                                                                       I
2                                                                      N
0                                                                      G
0
9
O
                     2009 Web Predictions                                  N
                                                                           L
                                                                           I
             Richard Macmanus
                                                                           N
             ReadWriteWeb
             www.readwriteweb.com
                                                                           E

                                                                           M
        Media properties prominently experiment with different and         A
    innovative types of online advertising; the move beyond CPM starts     R
     to actually happen, after years of CPA type predictions. Related, a
                                                                           K
      stunning new metric will emerge that accurately determines the
                                                                           E
           success of media properties beyond mere page views.
                                                                           T
                                                                           I
2                                                                          N
0                                                                          G
0
9
O
    Nearly all drivers of consumer spending are all moving in a
     direction to drive spending lower over the near-term ..                N
                                                                            L
                                                                            I
                                                                            N
                                             Decline in online display ad
         Non-travel e-commerce
                                             revenue
                 spending down
                                                                            E
                            10%                12%
                                                                            M
                                                                            A
       Total US online ad
                            2%               2010                           R
                  growth
                                                                            K
                                             All segments to shrink in
                                                                            E
                                             09 from 08, but with
                                             growth in 2010
                                                                            T
                                                                            I
2                                                                           N
0                                                                           G
0
9
Let's Be Serious: Online Display Ads Will Fall                                     O
                  Sharply In 2009                                                      N
                                                                                       L
                                                                                       I
                Henry Blodget
                                                                                       N
                Silicon Alley Insider
                www.alleyinsider.com
                                                                                       E

                                                                                       M
    “It's time we woke up and faced reality. Online display-ad spending will fall in   A
        2009, probably sharply. It will probably fall again in 2010. Hundreds of
                                                                                       R
    startups counting on advertising as a business model will be flattened. Yahoo,
                                                                                       K
          CNET, AOL, and other big display-ad properties will get hammered.
     At this point, we would estimate at least a 10% drop next year and probably
                                                                                       E
                          more. (20% is not inconceivable)”.
                                                                                       T
                                                                                       I
2                                                                                      N
0                                                                                      G
0
9
Online media space is going to blow up after                                      O
                     February                                                         N
                                                                                      L
                                                                                      I
                Ashkan Karbasfrooshan
                                                                                      N
                Founder & CEO – Mojo Supreme
                www.mojosupreme.com
                                                                                      E

                                                                                      M
       While Fortune 500 marketers will reduce their ad budgets too, they will
    continue to shift dollars away from untracked, offline media to online, tracked   A
    media….. this means a shift to display banners and video advertising, not paid
                                                                                      R
      search.. Only display banners, rich media and video advertising will really
                                 increase brand equity.                               K
                                                                                      E
    When you consider the size of TV advertising you realize just how big video-
    related online advertising will be. the sum of all video related advertising is   T
                 much, much larger than we anticipate and expect.
                                                                                      I
2                                                                                     N
0                                                                                     G
0
9
O
    Online media space is going to blow up after February
                                                                                   N
                                                                                   L
                                                                                   I
    Internet ad spending - the only significant growth area, but despite a
    projected 5 % increase in 2009, spending is still down compared to an          N
    expected 16 % growth this year. The world’s other leading internet economy,
                                                                                   E
    the U.K., mirrored U.S. projections with rates of 4 % in 2009 compared to 22
    % in 2008.
                                                                                   M
                                                                                   A
                                                                                   R
                                                                                   K
                                                                                   E
                                                                                   T
                                                                                   I
     Worldwide, internet ad growth to slow from 22 % in 2008 to 10 % in
2                                                                                  N
     2009, representing $5 billion growth to reach $59 billion or 13 % of
0    measured media investment.“
                                                                                   G
0
9
O
      In the face of overall economic turmoil, online ad
    spending holding up a little better than in other media                       N
                                                                                  L
                                                                                  I
                                                                                  N
        2009 US spending on online display advertising will slow to an 8 %        E
        rate in 2009 to reach $8.9 billion (down from 12 % in 2008 )

                                                                                  M
        Financial services spending on display ads will decline for the next 2
        years, while auto and lead generation will remain essentially flat.       A
                                                                                  R
        Paid search spending would slow to 20% growth (down from 26 %
                                                                                  K
        growth, to $11.4 billion ).
                                                                                  E
        Adding in Classifieds, Display, and Search, US online spending in total
        will finish 2008 up 18 %, at $23.6 billion, then slow to 15 % growth in   T
        2009, and 11 % in 2010.
                                                                                  I
2                                                                                 N
0                                                                                 G
0
9
O
      Overall ad budgets continue to weaken                                   N
                                                                              L
                                                                              I
             Imran Kahn
                                                                              N
             Internet Analyst
             J.P.Morgan
                                                                              E
       Total online global advertising growth of 25% in F’08 and 13% in
                                                                              M
    F’09 (prior estimates: 28%, 19% respectively).
                                                                              A
      Deterioration of display advertising is more pronounced than            R
    expected. CPMs will remain depressed and sell-through rates will
                                                                              K
    worsen.
                                                                              E
      Performance-based ads holding up better than banner ads. Long tail
                                                                              T
    advertisers continue to allocate additional dollars to search. However,
    keyword price inflation is moderating.                                    I
2                                                                             N
      Marketing spend pullback in some segments including travel, telecom,
0   autos, and retail is worsening.                                           G
0
9
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Influencers On Online Marketing 2009 Predictions By Trendsspotting

  • 2. O eMarketer's Predictions for 2009 N L I Online Ad Spending: Still Solid Choice 45 N E % rise in video ads in 2009 to reach $850 million 14.9 M % growth in search marketing to reach $12.3 billion A 8.9 R % growth in US internet ad spending to reach $25.7 billion. K 2009 - the lowest year-over-year increase for online advertising ever. Yet a robust increase compared with other media. E T Retail E-Commerce: Record-Setting Declines I 2 4 N 0 % growth in retail sales (excluding travel) G 0 9
  • 3. O Consumer Internet Predictions for 2009 N L I Jeremy Liew N Lightspeed Venture Partners http://lsvp.wordpress.com E Consumers seek cheap thrills 1 Consumers seeking today's lowest cost methods to entertain themselves: Free M entertainment provided by the social media A 2 “Trading real money for virtual goods” business model R in the US People will pay to allow extra powers in the game or customize their character K looks: see also - prepaid game cards, incentive marketing. E Web 2.0 leaders pull further away from the pack 3 T Advertisers will want to buy advertising on big, well known websites (Yahoo, AOL). Web 2.0 - Facebook + Digg - strong revenue growth . I 2 Online ad prices continue to fall 4 N 0 G Getting serious about monetizing non U.S. traffic 5 0 9
  • 4. O Bullish On Online Search, Bearish On Newspapers N L I N E M A R K E T I 2009 total U.S. advertising will decrease 10.0% to $252.1 billion 2 N U.S. Internet advertising revenue will grow 6.1% to $28.3 billion, 0 4% growth in Display, 20% growth in Search G 0 9
  • 5. Online advertising demonstrates it isn't O immune to gravity N L I John Fine N BusinessWeek www.businessweek.com E M Online advertising demonstrates it isn't immune to gravity. A Online display ad spending underperforms (low) expectations for '09. R Those predicting an explosion in advertising on social networks are sorely K disappointed . E T I 2 N 0 G 0 9
  • 6. O Everyone who doesn’t see misery next year is delusional N L I Nick Denton N Head of Gawker Media mediamemo.allthingsd.com E M A “Everyone who doesn’t see misery next year is delusional “ R K “Anyone who isn’t prepared for ads to go down 40 % is crazy” E T I 2 N 0 G 0 9
  • 7. O 2009 Web Predictions N L I Richard Macmanus N ReadWriteWeb www.readwriteweb.com E M Media properties prominently experiment with different and A innovative types of online advertising; the move beyond CPM starts R to actually happen, after years of CPA type predictions. Related, a K stunning new metric will emerge that accurately determines the E success of media properties beyond mere page views. T I 2 N 0 G 0 9
  • 8. O Nearly all drivers of consumer spending are all moving in a direction to drive spending lower over the near-term .. N L I N Decline in online display ad Non-travel e-commerce revenue spending down E 10% 12% M A Total US online ad 2% 2010 R growth K All segments to shrink in E 09 from 08, but with growth in 2010 T I 2 N 0 G 0 9
  • 9. Let's Be Serious: Online Display Ads Will Fall O Sharply In 2009 N L I Henry Blodget N Silicon Alley Insider www.alleyinsider.com E M “It's time we woke up and faced reality. Online display-ad spending will fall in A 2009, probably sharply. It will probably fall again in 2010. Hundreds of R startups counting on advertising as a business model will be flattened. Yahoo, K CNET, AOL, and other big display-ad properties will get hammered. At this point, we would estimate at least a 10% drop next year and probably E more. (20% is not inconceivable)”. T I 2 N 0 G 0 9
  • 10. Online media space is going to blow up after O February N L I Ashkan Karbasfrooshan N Founder & CEO – Mojo Supreme www.mojosupreme.com E M While Fortune 500 marketers will reduce their ad budgets too, they will continue to shift dollars away from untracked, offline media to online, tracked A media….. this means a shift to display banners and video advertising, not paid R search.. Only display banners, rich media and video advertising will really increase brand equity. K E When you consider the size of TV advertising you realize just how big video- related online advertising will be. the sum of all video related advertising is T much, much larger than we anticipate and expect. I 2 N 0 G 0 9
  • 11. O Online media space is going to blow up after February N L I Internet ad spending - the only significant growth area, but despite a projected 5 % increase in 2009, spending is still down compared to an N expected 16 % growth this year. The world’s other leading internet economy, E the U.K., mirrored U.S. projections with rates of 4 % in 2009 compared to 22 % in 2008. M A R K E T I Worldwide, internet ad growth to slow from 22 % in 2008 to 10 % in 2 N 2009, representing $5 billion growth to reach $59 billion or 13 % of 0 measured media investment.“ G 0 9
  • 12. O In the face of overall economic turmoil, online ad spending holding up a little better than in other media N L I N 2009 US spending on online display advertising will slow to an 8 % E rate in 2009 to reach $8.9 billion (down from 12 % in 2008 ) M Financial services spending on display ads will decline for the next 2 years, while auto and lead generation will remain essentially flat. A R Paid search spending would slow to 20% growth (down from 26 % K growth, to $11.4 billion ). E Adding in Classifieds, Display, and Search, US online spending in total will finish 2008 up 18 %, at $23.6 billion, then slow to 15 % growth in T 2009, and 11 % in 2010. I 2 N 0 G 0 9
  • 13. O Overall ad budgets continue to weaken N L I Imran Kahn N Internet Analyst J.P.Morgan E Total online global advertising growth of 25% in F’08 and 13% in M F’09 (prior estimates: 28%, 19% respectively). A Deterioration of display advertising is more pronounced than R expected. CPMs will remain depressed and sell-through rates will K worsen. E Performance-based ads holding up better than banner ads. Long tail T advertisers continue to allocate additional dollars to search. However, keyword price inflation is moderating. I 2 N Marketing spend pullback in some segments including travel, telecom, 0 autos, and retail is worsening. G 0 9
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