South Lincoln County Rural Tourism StudioDavid Beurle & Juliet FoxFuture iQ Partners       info@future-iq.com
The Future Ahead for tourism  in South Lincoln County
Commi ed groups
Commi ed groups
A tool best used to            embrace an uncertain            future What is            Explores a range ofScenario    pl...
Strategic planning optimistic linear projections
Develop   Explore                             Implications               ‘Drivers’    Develop                    Preferred...
Importance / Uncertainty matrix         Rate each driver on a 1 – 10 scale                (1=low; 10=high)Driver          ...
Program for the Evening•  Develop detailed narratives for four   plausible scenarios for the future of   South Lincoln Cou...
Regional scenario shaping clusters of driversAbility to leverage our human capacityValues and lifestylesLand use planningL...
Regional Scenarios based on two                      scenario shaping clusters                          Effective planning...
Scenario name and brief descriptionSocial CharacteristicsEconomic CharacteristicsEnvironmental Characteristics
Scenario Timeline       Social             Economic     Environmental2012               2012              20122020        ...
•  Population makeup/                       characteristics   Regional         •  Distribution of                       po...
Timeline for scenario              formulationSuggested Scenario Group timeline6:30   Group meet and scope-out scenario (1...
Regional Scenarios based on two                      scenario shaping clusters                          Effective planning...
Resilience and vulnerability of             scenariosHow would we respond under ‘shocks’?•  What would happen to our commu...
Context   Content
Ultimate Tourism Action Plan:•    Tourism Planning / Action•    Regional Promotion•    Waldport & individual communities• ...
Tourism Planning / Action•  Planning events – cooperation and collaboration•  Teamwork – working together toward goals•  A...
Regional Promotion•  Advertising and promotional vacation packages•  Promote as a region – with limited dollars•  Lack of ...
Scenario A – IsolatedCommunity / social                   Intelligence•  Well educated - Highly skilled•  All out here by ...
Scenario B – Wal-hats, Ya-port, Good for                                All Social•  Sustainable jobs & businesses•  One s...
Scenario C – Nice place to visit, wouldn’t            want to live there  Social •  A lot of second homes; owners don’t co...
Scenario D – Bring it on Social•  Loosing population; Aging population•  Absentee owners•  Brain drain; youth are not comi...
South Lincoln county, Workshop Presentation (Feb 28, 2012)
South Lincoln county, Workshop Presentation (Feb 28, 2012)
South Lincoln county, Workshop Presentation (Feb 28, 2012)
South Lincoln county, Workshop Presentation (Feb 28, 2012)
South Lincoln county, Workshop Presentation (Feb 28, 2012)
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

South Lincoln county, Workshop Presentation (Feb 28, 2012)

348 views

Published on

  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

South Lincoln county, Workshop Presentation (Feb 28, 2012)

  1. 1. South Lincoln County Rural Tourism StudioDavid Beurle & Juliet FoxFuture iQ Partners info@future-iq.com
  2. 2. The Future Ahead for tourism in South Lincoln County
  3. 3. Commi ed groups
  4. 4. Commi ed groups
  5. 5. A tool best used to embrace an uncertain future What is Explores a range ofScenario plausible futuresPlanning? Allows for the consideration of complex and interrelated forces
  6. 6. Strategic planning optimistic linear projections
  7. 7. Develop Explore Implications ‘Drivers’ Develop PreferredTrends and for the Shaping four Future andImplications South South plausible action for tourism Lincoln Lincoln scenarios planning industry County County
  8. 8. Importance / Uncertainty matrix Rate each driver on a 1 – 10 scale (1=low; 10=high)Driver Importance Uncertainty
  9. 9. Program for the Evening•  Develop detailed narratives for four plausible scenarios for the future of South Lincoln County (based on clusters of key drivers).•  Explore the possible futures before and the consequences for South Lincoln County
  10. 10. Regional scenario shaping clusters of driversAbility to leverage our human capacityValues and lifestylesLand use planningLocal aspirationsEducationCommunity collaboration and engagementLocal economic developmentTrained workforceTourism and economic infrastructureTransportation infrastructureInfrastructureEnergy costsCost of livingLodging developmentAccess to information and communication technology
  11. 11. Regional Scenarios based on two scenario shaping clusters Effective planning. collaboration and actions that are anchored in local values, aspirations and skills.Lack of critical Well resourcedinfrastructures local tourism to support and economic viable tourism infrastructures industry Fragmented and disjointed efforts with conflicting priorities.
  12. 12. Scenario name and brief descriptionSocial CharacteristicsEconomic CharacteristicsEnvironmental Characteristics
  13. 13. Scenario Timeline Social Economic Environmental2012 2012 20122020 2020 20202030 2030 2030
  14. 14. •  Population makeup/ characteristics Regional •  Distribution of population dimensions to consider •  Landscape and visual impacts •  ‘Liveability’ and (What would quality of life featurestourism in South Lincoln County •  Skills and educational profilesbe like in 2030?) •  Industry and economic profiles
  15. 15. Timeline for scenario formulationSuggested Scenario Group timeline6:30 Group meet and scope-out scenario (15m)6:45 Break into 3 groups – develop characteristics (30m)7:15 Small group report back (10m)7:25 Short scenario name (5m)7:30 Return to main room ready to present
  16. 16. Regional Scenarios based on two scenario shaping clusters Effective planning. collaboration and actions that are anchored in local values, aspirations and skills.Lack of critical Well resourcedinfrastructures local tourism to support and economic viable tourism infrastructures industry Fragmented and disjointed efforts with conflicting priorities.
  17. 17. Resilience and vulnerability of scenariosHow would we respond under ‘shocks’?•  What would happen to our communities and people?•  What would our economy do?•  Impacts on the environment?Shocks?•  There is an economic double dip..•  Price of oil jumps dramatically
  18. 18. Context Content
  19. 19. Ultimate Tourism Action Plan:•  Tourism Planning / Action•  Regional Promotion•  Waldport & individual communities•  Focus areas for tourism development –  Recreational –  Cultural –  Eco-friendly –  Natural resource –  Off season options
  20. 20. Tourism Planning / Action•  Planning events – cooperation and collaboration•  Teamwork – working together toward goals•  A plan would help define where limited dollars should be spent. ..help define roles and illuminate the ‘big picture”.•  Systemic processes for action – embedded in daily work.•  As a region – highlighting strengths of each community to create a regional package•  Tax options – regional infrastructure improvements
  21. 21. Regional Promotion•  Advertising and promotional vacation packages•  Promote as a region – with limited dollars•  Lack of cohesive branding•  Identify strengthen, and better promote our assets and work together as a broader community for the greater success of everyone.•  With the values of the region – of preservation and as a part of the Oregon coast.
  22. 22. Scenario A – IsolatedCommunity / social Intelligence•  Well educated - Highly skilled•  All out here by ourselves•  No facilities, the restaurants are gone, hotels are gone – and no toilets•  Back to the future scenario – people were camping and hiking here a long time ago•  No one will be living here•  Isolated pockets of money and poverty index will go up•  Have to be a survivalist since no one’s coming to get youEnvironmental•  Enviro research would be strong here•  People could see how the environment is being impacted•  Well preserved; not a lot of degradation•  Sometimes we don’t really understand the relations between publicEconomy•  Would have guides•  Bush pilots would take people into this isolated, remote area•  Very green facilities with composting toilets•  High number of PhDs
  23. 23. Scenario B – Wal-hats, Ya-port, Good for All Social•  Sustainable jobs & businesses•  One single Chamber for the entire region – or three working close together•  Health services have been increased; easier to get what you need locally•  Education & training is widely available•  A shared regional vision that everyone agrees to and uses•  We see ourselves entirely responsible and we drive the entire thing.Economic•  Selling awareness of enjoyment of the resources that are here•  Natural resources have been preserved•  Activities are nature-based and diverse•  Businesses are historically and culturally basedEnvironmental•  Setting today is preserved; isn’t changed – looks•  USFS is an active partner instead of an agency that just shows up once in a while and sits on a tower•  Physical connection between Waldport & Yachats – business districts are connected•  We involve and educate the tourist on our local ethic of environmental stewardship
  24. 24. Scenario C – Nice place to visit, wouldn’t want to live there Social •  A lot of second homes; owners don’t contribute to community •  Aging communities •  Lack of health care; Lack of skilled people •  More hotels/more restaurants – but not one to take care of you •  Will have conflicting priorities – communities are still fighting one another, •  Regional health clinic – nurses are the only ones who will •  More independent and migratory -- every unit will have its own electricity and grow their own food Economic / Tourism •  No economies of scale; No one working together •  Opportunities – lots of land, no one to compete with •  Heliports for people to fly in •  Outsiders would own all of the tourism infrastructure ; locals would lose their entrepreneurial spirit Environment •  More trails, more opportunities to enjoy the nature since no one is here •  Energy – go back to the Old West, have to shoot the meat off the hoof, warm up your house through firewood
  25. 25. Scenario D – Bring it on Social•  Loosing population; Aging population•  Absentee owners•  Brain drain; youth are not coming back•  Haves and have nots are separate•  Lack of law enforcement; high crime•  Low paying jobs; Schools go away•  Decision from bottom up goes away; Inflexible; hard to recover from problems•  Loss of critical mass to support servicesEnvironment•  As you lose human capital; decision making moves to the county or higher up•  Hard for locals to make change•  Look at resources who are managed by folks who aren’t here •  At some point you wish for the tsunami•  More accidentsTourism economy•  Fragmented or non-existent•  Lack of a skilled workforce; lack of jobs•  Empty buildings•  Islands of prosperity in a sea of poverty

×