Session 46 Helena Kyster-Hansen

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Session 46 Helena Kyster-Hansen

  1. 1. Helena Kyster-Hansen,Seniorkonsult, transport & utvecklingTetraplan A/S, Köpenhamn
  2. 2. FP7 Project for DG TREN18 months (Sept. 2008-Feb. 2010)
  3. 3. road rail long-distance Inland navigation GHG/CO2 Fossil Fuel ShareFORESIGHT 2050 shaping sustainability Congestion Accidents Transport policy Action plan 2020-2035-2050 Technology policy Demonstration projects Vision Targets
  4. 4. Progress Final Conference 4. Forum Step 4 Vision and Action Plan 3. Forum Step 3 Measures‘ Assessment & Action Scenario 2. Forum Step 2 BAU Forecasts & Preliminary Vision 1. ForumStep 1 Policy Technology Mega Trends
  5. 5. Policy , Technology& Mega-Trends Propulsion Systems & Energy Technology Demonstration Projects ITS Logistics Technologies Policy European PolicyNational Policies Freight Transport Demand Logistics Trends Mega-Trends Energy Emissions
  6. 6. BAU Forecast3 Business as usual forecasts:• A trend forecast consisting of the most likely development• A low forecast, which combines positive developments that result in easier mitigation (lower limit)• A high forecast that describes a future, which is more difficult to mitigate than the other two (upper limit)
  7. 7. PreliminaryVisionWhat progress will be socially and politically expected from long distance freight transport until 2020, 2035 and 2050? 2020 2035 2050 Reduction of GHG emissions -20% -70% -80% Fossil Fuel Share 80% 60% 40% Reduction of accidents -40% -65% -80% Reduction of congestion -17% -33% -50%
  8. 8. BAU Forecast &Preliminary Vision (1) GHG – emissions Total CO2 equivalents (in tonnes) that are caused by LDFT by road, rail and IWW within the EU27 (including upstream). Input: GHG emissions (Mt CO2 equ) •Freight transport demand 350 •Modal split 300 •Average load 250 High Forecast •Bio-fuels 200 Trend Forecast •Non-convent. foss. Fuels Low Forecast 150 Preliminary Vision •Carbon capture and storage 100 •Electricity production 50 0 2005 2020 2035 2050
  9. 9. BAU Forecast &Preliminary Vision (2) Fossil Fuel Share Fossil fuel energy input (primary energy) for LDFT by road, rail and IWW within the EU27 divided by Total energy input (primary energy) for LDFT by road, rail and IWW within the EU27. Input (same as GHG): Fossil fuel dependency (in %) •Freight transport demand 100,00% 90,00% •Modal split 80,00% •Average load 70,00% High Forecast •Biofuels 60,00% 50,00% Trend Forecast •Non-convent. foss. Fuels Low Forecast 40,00% Preliminary Vision •Carbon capture and storage 30,00% 20,00% •Electricity production 10,00% 0,00% 2005 2020 2035 2050
  10. 10. BAU Forecast &Preliminary Vision (3) Congestion Delay time measured as the difference between travel time in a loaded network and an unloaded network multiplied with the number of trucks affected for an average day. Input: Congestion (in mio h) •Transport demand 2,50 •Infrastructure 2,00 •Total cost/veh.km 1,50 Trend Forecast Preliminary Vision 1,00 0,50 0,00 2005 2020 2035 2050
  11. 11. BAU Forecast &Preliminary Vision (4) Accidents The number of road fatalities within EU27 attributable to HGV. Input: Accidents (Number of Fatalities) •Deployment of techn. Develop. 8000 •Veh.km 7000 6000 5000 High Forecast Trend Forecast 4000 Low Forecast 3000 Preliminary Vision 2000 1000 0 2005 2020 2035 2050
  12. 12. Measures Assessment(1)• After the 2nd Forum 35 measures have been identified• These 35 measures have been evaluated (desk research) by the project partners
  13. 13. Measures Assessment (2)Road transport related measures: Supply chain related measures • Investment in ITS • Training for eco-driving • Investment in TEN-road • Automated platooning • Internalisation of external costs • Standardized Loading Units • HGV weights and dimensions • E-freight • Liberalisation of cabotage • Network optimisation – cargo owner • Progressive distance pricing • Network optimisation – • Different pricing type of freight logistics service provider • Harmonised speed limits • CO2 labels • Congestion charge • Intermodal transport • Enforcement of regulations • Transport consolidation & cooperation • Transport route planning & controlRail transport related measures • Investment in new railway lines Energy suppliers related measures • Freight prioritisation • Taxation of fossil fuels • Funding for ERTMS/ETCS • Hydrogen Infrastructure • Electrification of rail corridors • Improved Batteries (energy storage) • Longer trains • Vehicle Supplier related measures • Heavier trains • Including CO2 standards into HGV regulationIWW & maritime transport related measures • Best available technology – BAT • Investment in IWT infrastructure vehicle certification for HGVs • Develop new technologies in IWW • Clean vehicle technologies • Investment in maritime port infrastructure. Aerodynamics – Alt. engines/fuels
  14. 14. Measures Assessment(3) - Methodology
  15. 15. Measures Assessment(4) – ABC Analysis• GHG As: Internalisation of external costs, Network optimisation logistics service providers, CO2 labels, Intermodal transport, Taxation of fossil fuels, Improved batteries, BAT certification for HGV, Clean vehicle technologies• GHG Bs: Liberalisation of cabotage, congestion charge, ....• GHG Cs ...
  16. 16. Scenario (1)• Goal: One realistic scenario where the preliminary vision is reached• It is impossible to estimate the impact of a certain measure.• What development of the models input parameters is necessary and possible?• Assumptions for transport demand are unchanged)
  17. 17. Scenario (2)• GHG & Fossil Fuel – Model Input parameters • Engine efficiency (42% → 60%) • Vehicle energy demand (-50%) • Low carbon electricity (-88%) • Bio-fuels (2% → 33%, emissions -93%) • Efficient usage of vehicle (-45%) • Electric engines in road transport (25%) • Modal shift (road 75% → 65%, rail 19% → 25%, IWW 6% → 10%) • Vehicle split/Larger Trucks (10%) • Electrification of rail (63% → 80%)
  18. 18. Scenario (3)
  19. 19. Scenario (4) Ceteris Paribus Analysis •Impact if one parameter fails (and all other reach their goal)
  20. 20. Scenario (5)• Congestion – Model Input Parameters • transport costs (toll costs pass. veh. 15 ct, 30 ct HGV) • logistics efficiency (+20%) • infrastructure availability (20%)
  21. 21. Scenario (6)•Until 2035•Truck vehicle km TRANSTOOLS based•Ratio of Fatality per vehicle km to 1/3
  22. 22. Scenario (7)• These input parameters have been discussed.• The conclusion of the discussion was • That some assumptions seem to be very optimistic and have to be looked in detail, but in general • the preliminary vision seems to be possible to achieve
  23. 23. Final Step• Elaborate for each measure • Market perspective • Demand for RTD actions (demonstration projects, Basic & Applied Research) • Demand for Transport Policy actions • Demand for actions in Related policy areas • MilestonesVision • What progress should be achieved by 2020, 2035 and 2050?
  24. 24. Final Conference: 24th Feb. 2010, Brussels Thanks for your attention! www.freightvision.euHelena Kyster-Hansenhkh@tetraplan.dk

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