Augur is a Decentralized Prediction Market Platform that utilizes Blockchaintechnologyto solvemany ofthe
problems that haveplagued past predictionmarkets. Augur’s groundbreaking decentralized oracle solution
enables anyone around theworld to create a market that has automated payouts,eliminatescounterparty
risk and uses no centralized servers to host the platform. The Augur Betais live at Augur.net.
In thesummer of2015, Augur raised $5.2 MillionDollarsin our ReputationToken Crowdsale, making the
project one of the20 most successful crowdfunding campaigns in history(according to Wikipedia’slist).
Predictionmarkets allowusers to buy and sell shares in theoutcome of an event. Thecurrent market priceof
a share is an estimate of theprobabilityofanevent occurring. The accuracy of a large predictionmarket and
theconsensus ofvarious individual models has been discussed byFiveThirtyEight.com’sNateSilver:
“it would beuseful to havea dozenFiveThirtyEight-likemodelsinthepublicsphere. The
consensus of models or forecasts is very often betterthan even thebest-performing members
In 2015, Augur hadan incrediblysuccessful year, including being selected to participateinCNBC and
SingularityUniversity’s ExponentialFinance XCS Challenge.The conference’s influential judges were given
thevery first lookat our Alpha software. Those on thejudging panel represented Forbes, Barclays, Deloitte,
Wells Fargo and Credit Suisse. This exclusive audience selected Augur as a Breakthrough Technologyfinalist!
Augur was theonly Blockchainrelated project to makeit to thefinals withinthe Breakthrough field;thisfield
is reserved for what is deemed to bethe most innovative projectsand technologiesin theworld. One of the
most exclusive audiences ofany technologyorFinTech conference was introduced to Augur and the
momentum hasn’t stopped since.
Coinbase, a market-leader in theBitcoin&Blockchainspace included Augur as one ofit’s “5 Most Exciting
BitcoinProjects of 2015” in theirQ2 2015 BitcoinTrend Report. Augur was placed in a very exclusive and
high-profilegroup featuring industry heavyweightsAbra, 21, and Blockstream.
Our “How Augur Works” animated explainer video has received over 200,000 views since it’s release in May,
becoming themost viewed predictionmarket video in thehistoryof YouTubewithin it’sfirst 2 months.
Narration byCountry Music singer ShooterJennings and animations by animationpowerhouse JBC Motion
led to many viewers being exposed to predictionmarkets for thevery first time.
Included in this packet are biographiesoftheAugur teamand advisors, select coverage from press and media
outlets, examples of theforecasting accuracy of predictionmarkets, quotes by influentialindividuals about
Augur and predictionmarkets as well as some other additionalresources. For any additionalmaterials,press
inquiries or otherinformation please contact firstname.lastname@example.org.
Table Of Contents
Page 1: About theAugurTeam
Page 2: AugurAdvisory Board
Page 3: AugurPress & Media
Page 4: Prediction Market Accuracy Examples
Page 5: Additional Augur Resources
Page 6: Quotes On Augur
Pages 7-9: FAQ
Pages 10+: AugurReputation CrowdsaleInformation
Other Important Information
In addition to theinformation presentedin this press kit, there are many
additional documents, blog posts andimportant technical information that we
wantedtoshare. Most of this will not be relevant tomost outlets but it’s
important tous tobe transparent in all instances:
About The Augur Team:
Joey Krug – Co-Founder & Core Developer
Joey took a leave of absence from Pomona College to focus full time on Augur. He conducted the first Bitcoin transaction via sound
as well as the first Bitcoin transaction via iOS-Android Bluetooth LE. As a prelude to Augur, Joey and Jack completed Sidecoin,
which allows new cryptocurrency distributions based on "snapshots" of Bitcoin account balances. He works on Augur’s backend
codebase which interfaces with Chris's math functions. He is currently making Augur’s consensus implementation faster and more
accurate. Joey worked on bitcoin merchant solutions and enjoys hardware tinkering and game development.
Dr. Jack Peterson, Ph.D. – Co-Founder & Core Developer
Jack is a physicist, entrepreneur, and software developer whose work spans startups, academia, and government. He worked with
distributed networks and cryptocurrency while finishing his PhD at UCSF. He’s delved into scientific computing, blockchain coding
(1, 2, 3), computer vision, neural networks, peer-to-peer networks, GIS, and fullstack web development. As a National Defense
Science and Engineering graduate fellow, he published peer-reviewed articles on networks and information theory, including
modeling and simulation involving protein-protein interaction networks, kinetic model extraction from single molecule
experiments and "heavy-tailed" distributions observed in biology and society.
Tony Sakich – Directorof Marketing
Tony managed the first, bitcoin-related national TV ad campaign, the most successful social media campaign in the cryptocurrency
space to date, as the Marketing Manager for BitPay. That capped 10+ years of work on digital campaigns with Microsoft, PayPal,
ESPN, Warner Bros. and other tech and entertainment groups. He is obsessed with decentralization and bayesian probability,
making him a perfect fit for Augur. Tony's philosophy on marketing focuses on transparency, customer interaction and making the
project as easy to understand as possible. To check out his other projects and more go to his website at TonySakich.com. He can
also be found at Twitter @TonySwish and on LinkedIn here.
Ryan Garner – Back-End Developer
Ryan is a programmer skilled in Basic and C++. Before joining Augur he designed an improved quadratic fee structure, created a
routine for automatically distributing the labor of judges to achieve a target accuracy, and designed a way to calculate re-
adjudication bonds based on opportunity cost. In Ryan's spare time he enjoys researching and discussing futurology,
decentralization, concepts derived from quantum nature, and use cases of DAOs. Ryan lightly uses social media but can still be
found on Twitter, GitHub and is constantly on /r/Augur using the handle imkharn.
Tomas Priecinsky – Front-End Developer
Tomas joined Intrade back in 2011, where he gained experience on how to build various UIs - simplified for basic users, advanced for
real-time traders and compact for mobile devices. Then he went to work for Barclays in 2013 before coming back to the
development team that previously created Intrade. Tomas was a core developer of the Tradesports fantasy sports platform. He yet
again worked on real-time UIs and building multi-platform hybrid mobile applications while gaining exposure to bitcoin. He's skilled
at JS, CSS, Java, SQL and various JS frameworks. He spent a few years at The University of Economics, Prague (Vysoká škola
ekonomická v Praze) before moving on early to a career in programming.
Peronet Despeignes – Director of SpecialOps
Perry worked as a data-driven economics correspondent for the Financial Times, Fortune Magazine and Investors Business Daily
after majoring in economics at Harvard. Before the 2007 financial crash, he uncovered heavy insider selling by US homebuilder
executives, used futures markets to gauge the surprising extent of Wall Street's dependence on the Federal Reserve and ran
regressions to assess which nations might outperform or underperform going forward based on which were currently "underpriced"
or "overpriced." He manages various research and multimedia projects for information services group Serenity.
Baz Karam – Front-End Developer
Baz has been engineering web applications for over 17 years. He has built systems that generate $100M+ annually. Has worked on
databases that crunch tens of billions of records. Developed 3D interactive web-based systems. Led the architecture and
engineering at startups. Worked in finance, pharmaceuticals, telecom, consumer products, large enterprises, small businesses and
Carl Wolfenden – Head of Product& Design
Carl has over a decade’s experience with online prediction markets. Most recently, he was Head of Product for Tradesports.com -
managing the design and launch of their web and mobile products. Prior to that, he served as Head of Operations for Intrade during
the 2008 and 2012 US Presidential elections - and many of the other global events that put Intrade on the map as the leading
prediction market platform in the world. His role at Augur is to get the front-end of the platform designed, built and launched.
Augur Advisory Board
Vitalik is best known as the founder of Ethereum, a decentralized Blockchain platform that can be summarized as a “decentralized
mining network and software development platform rolled into one”. Augur will be the very first decentralized application (Dapp)
to be released on Ethereum, followed by many others including IBM’s “Internet of Things” application.
Creator of Ethereum Winner of 2014 World Technology Award for IT
Software & $100,000 Peter Thiel Fellowship Award
Dr. Robin Hanson
Dr. Hanson is considered a pioneer and the most influential figure in the history of prediction markets. Hanson has been involved in
a variety of prediction market projects from Xanadu, the first internal corporate prediction market to working with powerhouses
like DARPA, Lockheed and NASA. His publications have become extraordinarily influential, including a heavy influence on the work
of FiveThirtyEight.com’s Nate Silver as stated in his 2012 book “The Signal and the Noise”. Dr. Hanson has been one of our most
active advisors, providing incredible knowledge, guidance and insight whenever he is asked. He even recorded a short video with
Augur’s Tony Sakich that accompanied an analysis of some of his most notable work.
Chief Scientist, Consensus Point
Economist, George Mason University
Research Associate, Future of Humanity Institute at
Ron Bernstein is best known as the Founder & CEO of InTrade.com, widely regarded as one of the most commercially successful
prediction markets in history. His is currently the CEO of Tradesports, a very popular fantasy sports prediction market platform.
Ron’s guidance and advice has been invaluable to the Augur team as there isn’t anyone who has been as successful as he has in
building a prediction market platform.
Founder & CEO, InTrade Founder & CEO, Tradesports
Houman B. Shadab is a prolific and influential expert in financial law and regulation. His research focuses on financial technology,
hedge funds, derivatives, securitization, commercial transactions, and blockchains such as Bitcoin. He has provided our team great
general insight regarding the legal framework around Blockchain technology.
Professor of Law, New York Law School Director, Center for Business and Financial Law
Joe has been a CEO for 25years and has been an innovator in the electronic design automation (EDA) space where he has been the
recipient of the Phil Kaufman Award, the highest accolade in the EDA Industry. He has served on the board of companies like
Oracle, Macromedia, Clarify and Mercury Interactive. Joe’s longevity, leadership and business savvy have benefitted the Augur
team in numerous ways that all have led to positive outcomes.
Dr. Abe Othman
Dr. Othman is a visiting scholar in the Operations and Information Management Department of The Wharton School of the University
of Pennsylvania. Dr. Othman’s received his PhD in Computer Science from Carnegie Mellon in 2012 and was named to Forbes “30 for
30” in the field of Energy. Dr. Othman’s contributions to the project are rather large and he has even written a guest blog post
expanding on Augur’s use of Automated Market Makers.
Researcher, Wharton University
Augur wants to revolutionize forecasting (2016 MAX Award Finalist) – Atlanta Business Chronicle
Ethereum-powered Augur brings its beta to Microsoft Azure - International Business Times
Blockchain Prediction Market Enters Beta – Coindesk
Bitcoin Is Growing up - an Infographic of the Bitcoin Ecosystem – Bitcoin Magazine
The Art of Forecasting: Augur’s Decentralized Prediction Market - Inside Bitcoins
Next-gen prediction market to test limits in D.C. - Zachary Warmbrodt, Politico
New tech promises government-proof prediction markets (article & video) - Maxim Lott, Fox News
Augur May Become the Greatest Gambling Platform in History -Jim Epstein, Reason
Augur’s crowdsale raises $1.3 million in 26 hours - Kyt Dotson, SiliconANGLE
Augur stakes its reputation on the wisdom of the crowd – Ian Allison, International Business Times
BitBeat: Ethereum Opens Its ‘Frontier’ for Business – Paul Vigna, The Wall Street Journal
Vapor No More: Ethereum Has Launched – Jon Evans, TechCrunch
Bitcoin Trends In 2015 (Named Top 5 Most Exciting Projects of 2015) – Coinbase.com Blog
Augur a ‘Breakthrough’ Finalist at Exponential Finance 2015– Giulio Prisco, Bitcoin Magazine
Augur Creates First Contract With Ethereum – Alyssa Hertig, CoinTelegraph
Augur Bets on Bright Futurefor Blockchain Prediction Markets – Pete Rizzo, Coindesk
Augur Audio & Video:
How Augur Works Video (Narrated by Shooter Jennings)
Augur: An Introduction To A Decentralized Prediction Market
Marketing Blockchain & Ethereum dApps: Tony Sakich of Augur
Reputation 101: How Augur's Reputation Tokens Work
Let’s Talk Bitcoin Podcast #222: Understanding Augur (Interview with Joey Krug & Tony Sakich)
TWiT: Floss Weekly 342: Augur (Interview with Joey Krug & Dr. Jack Peterson)
Additional Augur Resources:
OfficialReputationToken Crowdsale Site
Augur WhitepaperbyDr. Jack Peterson &Joey Krug
Augur Code on GitHub
Augur on Twitter
Augur on Facebook
Augur on YouTube:
Notable Quotes on Augur & Prediction Markets
“Thought: Dorian Nakamoto saga illustrates pressing need for Bitcoin-based prediction market. That’s something we’d
love to fund.”
"Augur looks pretty interesting. (A) Decentralized Prediction market. This could produce some incredibly useful
BrianArmstrong, CEO & Co-Founder of Coinbase
"Augur offers the promise of prediction markets that are decentralized and hard for any one person to censor or stop or
prevent. That would allow a wider range of possibilities."
Dr. RobinHanson,Chief Scientist,ConsensusPoint
"I think Augur is one of the most promising applications of blockchain technology out there; prediction markets have the
potential to serve a very valuable purpose in society, and be a key ingredient in a very wide array of applications, and
Augur is well-positioned to take that niche."
Vitalik Buterin,Founder of Ethereum - 2014 World Technology Award & 2014 Thiel Fellowship Winner
"Prediction markets are a powerful tool for crowdsourcing information from the free market. Augur's decentralized
design makes that technology - and information - widely available, a transformative and positive event."
Jeff Garzik,Bitcoin Core Developer & Founderof DunveganSpace SystemsInc.
"Augur now sets the standard in prediction markets. Polling and consumer research are just two industries that will be
completely disrupted by this technology. Any industry that benefits by having accurate forecasting will cometo
Max Keiser,Host of Keiser Report & AwardedFirst Patentin Prediction MarketSpacefor HSX.com
“The prediction market that I always wish existed.”
Dr. Abe Othman, ResearcheratWharton
"The potential for Augur is really about the distributed participation from the exchange operators as well as from the
exchange users & the ability to distribute that in the way that they propose has never been done"
"Prediction markets, to the extent that they have a central point of failure, are necessarily limited in their usefulness,
staying power, and authenticity. Augur finally brings decentralization to prediction markets, and if you're not scared
and fascinated by the potential therein, then you're not paying attention."
ErikVoorhees, Founder, SatoshiDice, Coinapult
“A world of economic productivity & free exchange is going to require disintermediation, which is a movement toward
peer-to-peer technological engagement. Augur is an important and progressive step in that direction.”
JeffreyTucker, CLO, Liberty.me
"Augur is poised to revolutionize not only the way future events are analyzed, but, by combining the wisdom of crowds
with monetary incentives for individuals, how information is reported as well. It's made possible by the team's brilliant
implementation of blockchain technology."
Houman Shadab,Professorof BusinessandFinancialLaw, New York LawSchool
Frequently Asked Questions:
What’s a predictionmarket(PM)?
Similar to a stock market, a PM is a market where individuals can buy and sell shares. But unlike a stockmarket,
which speculates on thefuture value of a company, a predictionmarket exists to determine thelikelihoodofan
outcomeof a future event. For a example, a predictionmarket couldask, “Will Jeb Bush be elected president in
2016?” If “Yes” shares cost $0.43, that can be understoodas thelikelihoodofBush being elected (43%). Repeated
economic and academicstudies have found predictionmarkets to be one of theworld’s most accurate forecasting
tools,especiallywhen seeded with real money, and enough liquidityandtrading volume (a problemthat has
traditionallyexisted with PMs.)
What makesAugur differentfromInTrade?
Many elements separate Augur from traditionalpredictionmarkets,but most important,is the fact that our
software is globalanddecentralized;anyone, anywhere in the worldcan access and use Augur, potentiallybringing
unprecedented liquidity,volume, and a diversity of perspectives and topicsunseen in prior iterationsof prediction
Thereare a bunch of competitors to Augur, right?
Actually,no. There are none. “Truthcoin”, which provided theintellectualandeconomic skeleton for Augur, was an
academicexercise by Yalestatistician,Paul Sztorc,who sits on our advisory board.However, he has no intentions
of actuallydeveloping theproject,nor does anyone else (although therehavebeen previous light-hearted
attempts.)There are a few bitcoin-based predictionmarkets, but they’vehardlyachieved volume due to theirtotal
centralization(and lackof reliabilitydueto bitcoin’svolatility.)Onthat note…
How do you plan to manage the massive volatility issues that exist in most cryptocurrencies?
Obviously,a predictionmarket must reward its participantsforbeing right,and not for buying bitcoinat the right
time. Thus, bitcoinonlyserves as an intermediaryin our system. We will use a “stablecoin” tacked to thepriceof
theU.S. dollar(so long as BTC is significantlymore volatile)withinAugur. An example of stablecoinsalreadyexists
There are two manners in which we can implement this system. Our initialplan was to harness Blockstream’stwo-
way-pegged sidechainsto move BTC to the stablecoinin our system. However, Vitalik(@Ethereum)enlightened
us to the possibilityofusing a crosschain into a decentralized exchange withinAugur, to convert allincoming
cryptocurrencies into thestablecoinwe use. Eitherwill likelywork, and whatever proves most practical/reliablewill
be our choice.
Why a nonprofit? Don’t you wantto makemoney?
A few core misunderstandings engender thisquestion:
1 Just because theForecast Foundation(thelegalentitybehindAugur) is a not-for-profit corporation,that does
not mean we cannot receive salaries for our work that are commensurate to our effort (although wedo pay
ourselves less than market rates.)
2 A nonprofit does not mean we are tax-exempt (we are not.) However, we believe that because theFoundation’s
stated and intended purposeis to build“open-source, publicforecasting tools”, we could easilyfall under
501(c)(3) tax-exempt status.
3 We are a fullydecentralized organization/application.Just likeBitcoin.We have zero control over Augur or what
is done on it. That being said, like Bitcoin,thereare core developersthat have theabilityto push out
updates, patches,and changes, upon theagreement of theAugur community.
Because Augur is fully decentralized,we actuallyhave zero reason to be a for-profit entity.There is no ownership of
thesoftware. There is ownership of Reputation(REP), but Reputation shouldbe seen more as a maintenance tool
than any sort of investment token.This leads to thenext question…
So HOW do you makemoney?
The money raised in our Reputationtokenoffering, will be used to paytheForecast Foundation’semployees,
mostlycore developers,salaries for theforeseeable future (until a toollike Lighthousecan providea community-
based crowdfunding toolforAugur’s sustained development.)
A small percentageof allReputation(which will be entirely distributed at theend of thetoken offering)will be
allocated to theAugur team and to some of our key advisors. Because halfof alltrading fees are allocated to
responsible Reputationholdersafter each reporting cycle, thisgives us a strong incentive to maintain and buildthis
software over thelong term, as REP only becomes valuableas volume and usage grows over the course oftime.
How doesReputation (REP) work?
Reputationcan bethought ofas a sort of“score” attached to anindividual’s public &private address & is both
divisibleand exchangeablelikebitcoin.However, that is where thesimilaritiesto cryptocurrency end.
REP is fully distributed beforethefull launch of Augur, based on theamount of responsibility(and money)
individuals decideto put into thesoftware. We emphasize responsibility,because that is what holding REP
requires. Augur can only be decentralized so long as thereis a decentralized oraclesolution to our software. That is
what Reputationprovides. Thosewho holdREP are expected, every eight weeks, to report on theoutcomeof a
random selection of closed events/predictions in thesystem. This is done bysimply selecting three options: Yes
(event occurred), No (it didnot), or Ambiguous /Unethical (which,if this optionachievesa consensus, pushes the
reporting back to thenext period,beforeeventually being closed without resolution.) Reporters have a periodin
which to do this.
Reporting should bea fairly intuitiveprocess, as most markets will have hadtime beforethe voting periodto auto-
resolve themselves (as rational actors willbe incentivized to sell their losing shares before a market reaches zero
value, leading most markets to have 99-to-1 odds at closing time.) If markets have not resolved themselves, this
may require Reputationholders to do some Googling;but more likelyit is that thedecision in question willhave
been poorlyworded, undeterminable, or unethical, and thus reporters shouldmark the decisionas such.
If Reputationholders failto report on theoutcome of events assigned to them during thetwo-week voting period,
or report dishonestly,principlecomponent analysis, PCA (to be explained at length in our blog),redistributesthe
lazy or dishonest Reputationholders’ REP to thosewho have reported both regularlyand honestly.Also, only such
REP holderswill collect thetrading fees from each voting cycle. This makes Augur themost meritocratic system in
What about thelegal / regulatory aspect of this?
We have been in active, constructive communications with past and current members of keyregulatoryagencies,
This legalanalysis was written by one of our advisors (andtwo otherfriends of theproject).Page 67 section b
"Decentralized Applications,"pg.70 2. "PredictionsMarkets," and pg.73 section c "Law and Decentralization"are
theparts that relateto us. We thinkit captures our views on how regulatorswill approach this.
The law doesnot prohibit thecreationof open-source, decentralized predictionmarket software, nor the
distributionof ofcryptocurrency tokens. In fact, writing source-code is a protected activityunderthe First
Amendment as demonstrated in Junger v. Daly.
We have examined legalprecedents and case law, our legal advisoryis world-class and we are being entirely
transparent about what we are building.
Augur’s Tony Sakich quoted
alongside Tyler Winklevoss of
Gemini and TigerDirect,
Coinbase and BItPay
executives in Bitcoin
Magazine’s “Bitcoin Is Growing
Up” Ecosystem Infographic.
MAX Awards Finalist
Named Finalist by Atlanta Business Chronicle & Georgia State with Coca-
Cola, Atlanta Hawks, Cricket Wireless & Fortune 500 companies.
The Augur Reputation Token
The First 48 Hours
Total USD: $1.7 million
Ether Raised: 548763.32048363
Number of Accounts: 2180
Total USD: $5.3 Million
Bitcoin Raised: 18813.02498
Ether Raised: 1176816.436 ETH
Number of Accounts: 4550
In Top 25 Highest-Funded Crowdfunding Campaigns in