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"The Disruptive Future of Retail 2019" - Excerpt

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A peek into the future of the industry from a retail executive presentation in October at the Retall Loss Prevention Council at the University of Florida. Full version to be delivered later this year at another executive conference.

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"The Disruptive Future of Retail 2019" - Excerpt

  1. 1. www.tonydonofrio.com© 2019 TD Insights 2019 . All Rights Reserved. 1 USA Retail Apocalypse or Renaissance
  2. 2. © 2019 TD Insights 2019 . All Rights Reserved. Global Retail Maintains its Growth Groove 2Source The Economist August 2018 Retail Sales 2012-2022 ($ Trillion) Retail sales growth, 2019-2020 forecasts (real % change per year) Source The Economist Intelligence Unit 2019
  3. 3. © 2019 TD Insights 2019 . All Rights Reserved. For Each Company Closing Stores, 5.2 Are Opening Stores Source: IHL Group, 2019 Convenience Superstores / WH Clubs Ratio of Banners Net Stores Open vs Close 1.0 = breakeven number of openings vs closings Dept & Specialty Net Stores Opening or Closing Food/ Supermarkets Fast Food Bar/ Restaurants Specialty Hardgoods Mass Merch. Drug Stores Specialty Softgoods Dept. Stores 3 This year, all segments have a ratio >1.0 of companies opening vs closing 30+ 30+ 9.8 6.8 5.9 5.9 4.5 3.6 2.7 1.4 2019 2018 2017 Dept. Stores -301 -653 -320 Hardgoods 2019 2018 2017 18 1,668 1,007 2019 2018 2017 Softgoods -3,728 -1,541 -3,108
  4. 4. © 2019 TD Insights 2019 . All Rights Reserved. The Digital Omnishopper 4 Sources: RIS Shopper Megatrends 2019, WeareSocial.com, 2019 ACTIVE SOCIAL MEDIA USERS 3.5BILLION 45% PENETRATION 71% will allow location-based alerts while in stores 67% do click-and-collect 70% use a retailer’s app while in their stores Today vs. 5 Years Ago CONSUMERS SHOP LESS In Malls 54% In Stores 31% Online 73% On Smartphones 61% CONSUMERS SHOP MORE Local 32% 90% who click-and- collect make an additional purchase on pickup in store
  5. 5. © 2019 TD Insights 2019 . All Rights Reserved. What Shoppers Want…Will Keep Changing Voice assistant 43% 36% 64% 34% 29% 78% 33% 56% 89% 27% 60% 86% 21% 54% 82% 21% 54% 86% 19% 54% 83% 15% 57% 88% Source: NRF 2019, RIS Shopper Megatrends 2019 Percent aware Have not tried, but Would like to Social shopping In-app store navigation Visual search Virtual reality Augmented reality Virtual fit Smart dressing room Have tried, and are Interested in trying again TOP 5 TECH-DRIVEN RETAIL EXPERIENCES SHOPPERS WANT 1. Order-only stores (products shipped to homes) 73% 2. Grad-and-go stores (self-checkout from own phone) 69% 3. Interactive shoppable screens 58% 4. Digital order buttons for specific products 49% 5. Virtual try-on for glasses, clothing, etc. 47% TOP 3 TECH-DRIVEN RETAIL SERVICES SHOPPERS WANT 1. Curbside pickup 69% 2. Pickup lockers or kiosks 69% 3. Subscription orders regularly delivered 58%
  6. 6. © 2019 TD Insights 2019 . All Rights Reserved. Retail Loss Prevention Disrupted 6 RETAIL THEFT OPPORTUNITIES DIGITALLY EMPOWERED CONSUMER Shrink Brand Value Differentiation Real-Time Consumer Loyalty Immersive Unified Customer Experiences Smart Supply Chains Brand Integrated Security / Video Analytics / Machine Learning Data / Visual Zone Deterrence Prescriptive Data Analytics
  7. 7. © 2019 TD Insights 2019 . All Rights Reserved. Innovation SPEED 7Sources: Economist 2019, GSMA Mobile Economy 2019, Interactive Schools 2018 Consumer IoT Connections, by type, bn MOBILE INTERNET USERS 3.6bn2018 2025 5.0bn 47% 61% PENETRATION RATE (% of population) 4.8% SMARTPHONES % of connections* 60% 79% 2018 2025 CAGR
  8. 8. © 2019 TD Insights 2019 . All Rights Reserved. 8 LPRC INNOVATE Execute at SPEED of New RETAIL

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