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New Utility Business
Models
European Utility Week
Barcelona 2016
@TomRaftery
• Global Technology Evangelist, SAP
• tomraftery.com
• twitter.com/tomraftery
• tom@tomraftery.com
• +34 677 695 468
• SlideShare.net/TomRaftery
2
Tom Raftery
@TomRaftery
@TomRaftery3
“The future is already here – it's just
not evenly distributed”
William Gibson
@TomRaftery4
• Good news
• Bad news
@TomRaftery5
Bad news
@TomRaftery6
@TomRaftery7
Climate
@TomRaftery8
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/
@TomRaftery9
https://weather.com/news/climate/news/warmest-year-on-record-earth-2016
@TomRaftery10
Weather events
@TomRaftery11
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/south-australian-storm-outage-wreak-havoc-on-steelworks-mines/news-story/fcac47d28f0ee0382bf96bb50927c825
@TomRaftery12
Regulations
@TomRaftery13
"a long-term goal of keeping the increase in
global average temperature to well below
2°C above pre-industrial levels"
2015 Paris Climate Accord
http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/paris/index_en.htm
@TomRaftery14
Generation
@TomRaftery15
Solar
@TomRaftery16
@TomRaftery
http://www.treehugger.com/renewable-energy/striking-chart-showing-solar-power-will-take-over-world.html
17
@TomRaftery18
http://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/uae-beats-renewables-cost-hurdle-with-worlds-cheapest-price-for-solar-energy
@TomRaftery19
https://cleantechnica.com/2016/05/02/lowest-solar-price-dubai-800-mw-solar-project/
@TomRaftery20
http://cleantechnica.com/2016/08/18/new-low-solar-price-record-set-chile-2-91¢-per-kwh/
@TomRaftery21
http://cleantechnica.com/2016/08/18/new-low-solar-price-record-set-chile-2-91¢-per-kwh/
@TomRaftery22
Wind
@TomRaftery23
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-windpower-idUSKCN0XG1UA
@TomRaftery24
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/wind-experts-think-prices-will-fall-faster-than-official-models-predict
@TomRaftery25
Storage
@TomRaftery26
@TomRaftery27
@TomRaftery28
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/us-energy-storage-market-grew-243-in-2015-largest-year-on-record
@TomRaftery29
• Digital transformation
Market liberalisation
Customer empowerment
Falling revenues
Other Disruptors
@TomRaftery30
Good news
@TomRaftery31
@TomRaftery32
Evolutionary & Revolutionary
Business Models
@TomRaftery33
Evolutionary Business Models
@TomRaftery34
Distributors
@TomRaftery35
After sales service
@TomRaftery36
Lead Generator
@TomRaftery37
Aggregator
@TomRaftery38
Energy Efficiency Consultancy
@TomRaftery39
Financial Products
@TomRaftery40
Water
@TomRaftery41
Revolutionary Business Models
@TomRaftery42
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2079334-blockchain-based-microgrid-gives-power-to-consumers-in-new-york/
@TomRaftery
Internet of Things
- LV
43
http://www.metering.com/epris-automated-dr-software-tells-appliances-when-its-cheapest-to-run/
@TomRaftery44
http://www.flexiblepower.org
@TomRaftery45
https://www.alliander.com/en/our-activities/new-markets/energy-exchange-enablers
@TomRaftery46
http://www.zown.eu/en/
@TomRaftery
Smart Appliances
47
@TomRaftery48
http://www.smartusys.com
@TomRaftery49
https://ring.com/
@TomRaftery50
https://www.flickr.com/photos/traftery/14795809968/
@TomRaftery51
http://www.coindesk.com/german-utility-company-turns-to-blockchain-amid-shifting-energy-landscape/
@TomRaftery52
https://www.allego.eu/
@TomRaftery53
V2G
@TomRaftery54
http://techcrunch.com/2016/05/04/tesla-ramps-up-its-ambitions-expecting-to-produce-500000-cars-annually-by-2018/
@TomRaftery
Photo http://www.teslamotors.com/
55
80kW x 250,000 connected cars
= 20 GWh p.a.
@TomRaftery56
https://www.tesla.com/energy
@TomRaftery57
https://www.tesla.com/powerwall
@TomRaftery58
@TomRaftery59
@TomRaftery
Conclusion
60
• The times they are a changin'
• The tech is there to meet the changes
• Utilities need to grasp the nettle or they
risk being disrupted
@TomRaftery
Thanks
61
@TomRaftery
?’s
62

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New Business Models for utilities

Editor's Notes

  1. Analyst/Futurist Typically looking 5-10 years out
  2. Climate Distributed generation Storage Digital transformation Market Liberalisation Customer empowerment
  3. Last 800,000 years Atmospheric CO2 levels Measure of incoming ocean breeze above the thermal inversion layer to minimise local contamination On May 9, 2013 passed 400 ppm for the first time In 2014 stayed above 400ppm for 3 months For 6 months in 2015, and now permanently above 400ppm
  4. 2015 was hottest year on record. 2016 will beat that record According to NASA, global average surface temperatures during July were 0.84 degrees Celsius, or 1.51 degrees Fahrenheit, above average
  5. Many more headlines like this
  6. 195 of the world’s countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal Governments agreed - a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels; - to aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change; - on the need for global emissions to peak as soon as possible, recognising that this will take longer for developing countries; - to undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with the best available science.
  7. Price for last 40 years Swanson effect - price of PV falls 20% for every doubling of installed capacity
  8. Price falls -> more attractive -> more installed -> price falls => Virtuous circle
  9. Riyadh-based Acwa Power had lowest bid And offered to go to 5.4c if they got the whole 1,000MW The solar power will be sold to Dewa for 5.84c/kWh over 25 years Natural gas – which generates 99% of the UAE’s electricity – costs 9c
  10. From 2013, price has approx halved Trend likely to continue
  11. Disruption coming from here too
  12. Data from University of Technology Eindhoven
  13. Data from University of Technology Eindhoven
  14. Disruption = Opportunity
  15. Distributors of energy efficient goods ESB shops
  16. Keeping appliances in energy efficient state Maintenance and repairs
  17. Act as a lead generator for approved vendors of energy efficient goods and services
  18. Of moving services, for example - bundling packages for telco, gas, upselling other products
  19. Design/construction/retrofit of more energy efficient/water efficient homes – could also include energy storage
  20. Financial options – end to end financial products from partnerships with financial institutions (finance storage products, geothermal, solar, energy efficient appliances)
  21. Water utilities on grey water systems – tankless water systems
  22. Community micro-grids using blockchain solution from Transactive Grid to manage transactions
  23. EPRI ADR software
  24. Open source software for flexible energy demand
  25. Alliander has created energy marketplaces for realtime supply and demand synchronisation
  26. Zown advises organisations/communities on micro grids, and has a Microgrid platform to manage & maintain local energy supplies
  27. Business models offering smart home/DR services Whirlpool dryer Appliances subscribe to realtime pricing info & adjust their behaviour accordingly Water heating Fridges & freezers Aircon
  28. Smart home systems Smart Utility Systems - apps for controlling the home Ppl want more intelligent devices - set & forget
  29. Smart home systems Insurance, security, all the smart home stuff
  30. Data based energy services The world’s 65-and-older population is projected to triple by midcentury, from 516 million in 2009 to 1.53 billion in 2050.
  31. PoC - RWE partnered with slock.it
  32. EV charging platform across Netherlands, Belgium and Germany
  33. V2G
  34. V2G Partnership opportunities? Freq regulation, flexible demand, DR
  35. Prices falling for home solar Lease customer roof space Or help finance solar installations
  36. 14kWh & inverter & installation $6.5k Tesla have demonstrated demand exists Subsidise purchase, use for freq reg, demand flex, & dr
  37. Sorek produces 627,000 cubic meters daily Sells for $0.58 per cubic meter (1,000 liters) Profitable rev of $133m pa
  38. Flexiciency - EU platform for sharing DSO data