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New Business Models for utilities

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New Business Models for utilities

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It is a time of radical changes in the utility world. A time of disrupt, or be disrupted. In this talk I go through some evolutionary, and several revolutionary business opportunities that utilities have to help stem their falling revenues from generation.

It is a time of radical changes in the utility world. A time of disrupt, or be disrupted. In this talk I go through some evolutionary, and several revolutionary business opportunities that utilities have to help stem their falling revenues from generation.

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New Business Models for utilities

  1. 1. New Utility Business Models European Utility Week Barcelona 2016 @TomRaftery
  2. 2. • Global Technology Evangelist, SAP • tomraftery.com • twitter.com/tomraftery • tom@tomraftery.com • +34 677 695 468 • SlideShare.net/TomRaftery 2 Tom Raftery @TomRaftery
  3. 3. @TomRaftery3 “The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed” William Gibson
  4. 4. @TomRaftery4 • Good news • Bad news
  5. 5. @TomRaftery5 Bad news
  6. 6. @TomRaftery6
  7. 7. @TomRaftery7 Climate
  8. 8. @TomRaftery8 https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/
  9. 9. @TomRaftery9 https://weather.com/news/climate/news/warmest-year-on-record-earth-2016
  10. 10. @TomRaftery10 Weather events
  11. 11. @TomRaftery11 http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/south-australian-storm-outage-wreak-havoc-on-steelworks-mines/news-story/fcac47d28f0ee0382bf96bb50927c825
  12. 12. @TomRaftery12 Regulations
  13. 13. @TomRaftery13 "a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels" 2015 Paris Climate Accord http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/paris/index_en.htm
  14. 14. @TomRaftery14 Generation
  15. 15. @TomRaftery15 Solar
  16. 16. @TomRaftery16
  17. 17. @TomRaftery http://www.treehugger.com/renewable-energy/striking-chart-showing-solar-power-will-take-over-world.html 17
  18. 18. @TomRaftery18 http://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/uae-beats-renewables-cost-hurdle-with-worlds-cheapest-price-for-solar-energy
  19. 19. @TomRaftery19 https://cleantechnica.com/2016/05/02/lowest-solar-price-dubai-800-mw-solar-project/
  20. 20. @TomRaftery20 http://cleantechnica.com/2016/08/18/new-low-solar-price-record-set-chile-2-91¢-per-kwh/
  21. 21. @TomRaftery21 http://cleantechnica.com/2016/08/18/new-low-solar-price-record-set-chile-2-91¢-per-kwh/
  22. 22. @TomRaftery22 Wind
  23. 23. @TomRaftery23 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-windpower-idUSKCN0XG1UA
  24. 24. @TomRaftery24 https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/wind-experts-think-prices-will-fall-faster-than-official-models-predict
  25. 25. @TomRaftery25 Storage
  26. 26. @TomRaftery26
  27. 27. @TomRaftery27
  28. 28. @TomRaftery28 http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/us-energy-storage-market-grew-243-in-2015-largest-year-on-record
  29. 29. @TomRaftery29 • Digital transformation Market liberalisation Customer empowerment Falling revenues Other Disruptors
  30. 30. @TomRaftery30 Good news
  31. 31. @TomRaftery31
  32. 32. @TomRaftery32 Evolutionary & Revolutionary Business Models
  33. 33. @TomRaftery33 Evolutionary Business Models
  34. 34. @TomRaftery34 Distributors
  35. 35. @TomRaftery35 After sales service
  36. 36. @TomRaftery36 Lead Generator
  37. 37. @TomRaftery37 Aggregator
  38. 38. @TomRaftery38 Energy Efficiency Consultancy
  39. 39. @TomRaftery39 Financial Products
  40. 40. @TomRaftery40 Water
  41. 41. @TomRaftery41 Revolutionary Business Models
  42. 42. @TomRaftery42 https://www.newscientist.com/article/2079334-blockchain-based-microgrid-gives-power-to-consumers-in-new-york/
  43. 43. @TomRaftery Internet of Things - LV 43 http://www.metering.com/epris-automated-dr-software-tells-appliances-when-its-cheapest-to-run/
  44. 44. @TomRaftery44 http://www.flexiblepower.org
  45. 45. @TomRaftery45 https://www.alliander.com/en/our-activities/new-markets/energy-exchange-enablers
  46. 46. @TomRaftery46 http://www.zown.eu/en/
  47. 47. @TomRaftery Smart Appliances 47
  48. 48. @TomRaftery48 http://www.smartusys.com
  49. 49. @TomRaftery49 https://ring.com/
  50. 50. @TomRaftery50 https://www.flickr.com/photos/traftery/14795809968/
  51. 51. @TomRaftery51 http://www.coindesk.com/german-utility-company-turns-to-blockchain-amid-shifting-energy-landscape/
  52. 52. @TomRaftery52 https://www.allego.eu/
  53. 53. @TomRaftery53 V2G
  54. 54. @TomRaftery54 http://techcrunch.com/2016/05/04/tesla-ramps-up-its-ambitions-expecting-to-produce-500000-cars-annually-by-2018/
  55. 55. @TomRaftery Photo http://www.teslamotors.com/ 55 80kW x 250,000 connected cars = 20 GWh p.a.
  56. 56. @TomRaftery56 https://www.tesla.com/energy
  57. 57. @TomRaftery57 https://www.tesla.com/powerwall
  58. 58. @TomRaftery58
  59. 59. @TomRaftery59
  60. 60. @TomRaftery Conclusion 60 • The times they are a changin' • The tech is there to meet the changes • Utilities need to grasp the nettle or they risk being disrupted
  61. 61. @TomRaftery Thanks 61
  62. 62. @TomRaftery ?’s 62

Editor's Notes

  • Analyst/Futurist
    Typically looking 5-10 years out
  • Climate
    Distributed generation
    Storage
    Digital transformation
    Market Liberalisation
    Customer empowerment
  • Last 800,000 years Atmospheric CO2 levels
    Measure of incoming ocean breeze above the thermal inversion layer to minimise local contamination
    On May 9, 2013 passed 400 ppm for the first time
    In 2014 stayed above 400ppm for 3 months
    For 6 months in 2015, and now permanently above 400ppm
  • 2015 was hottest year on record. 2016 will beat that record
    According to NASA, global average surface temperatures during July were 0.84 degrees Celsius, or 1.51 degrees Fahrenheit, above average
  • Many more headlines like this
  • 195 of the world’s countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal
    Governments agreed
    - a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels;
    - to aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change;
    - on the need for global emissions to peak as soon as possible, recognising that this will take longer for developing countries;
    - to undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with the best available science.
  • Price for last 40 years
    Swanson effect - price of PV falls 20% for every doubling of installed capacity
  • Price falls -> more attractive -> more installed -> price falls
    => Virtuous circle
  • Riyadh-based Acwa Power had lowest bid
    And offered to go to 5.4c if they got the whole 1,000MW
    The solar power will be sold to Dewa for 5.84c/kWh over 25 years
    Natural gas – which generates 99% of the UAE’s electricity – costs 9c
  • From 2013, price has approx halved
    Trend likely to continue
  • Disruption coming from here too
  • Data from University of Technology Eindhoven
  • Data from University of Technology Eindhoven
  • Disruption = Opportunity
  • Distributors of energy efficient goods
    ESB shops
  • Keeping appliances in energy efficient state
    Maintenance and repairs
  • Act as a lead generator for approved vendors of energy efficient goods and services
  • Of moving services, for example - bundling packages for telco, gas, upselling other products
  • Design/construction/retrofit of more energy efficient/water efficient homes – could also include energy storage
  • Financial options – end to end financial products from partnerships with financial institutions (finance storage products, geothermal, solar, energy efficient appliances)
  • Water utilities on grey water systems – tankless water systems
  • Community micro-grids using blockchain solution from Transactive Grid to manage transactions
  • EPRI ADR software
  • Open source software for flexible energy demand
  • Alliander has created energy marketplaces for realtime supply and demand synchronisation
  • Zown advises organisations/communities on micro grids, and has a Microgrid platform to manage & maintain local energy supplies
  • Business models offering smart home/DR services
    Whirlpool dryer
    Appliances subscribe to realtime pricing info & adjust their behaviour accordingly
    Water heating
    Fridges & freezers
    Aircon
  • Smart home systems
    Smart Utility Systems - apps for controlling the home
    Ppl want more intelligent devices - set & forget
  • Smart home systems
    Insurance, security, all the smart home stuff
  • Data based energy services
    The world’s 65-and-older population is projected to triple by midcentury, from 516 million in 2009 to 1.53 billion in 2050.
  • PoC - RWE partnered with slock.it
  • EV charging platform across Netherlands, Belgium and Germany
  • V2G
  • V2G Partnership opportunities?
    Freq regulation, flexible demand, DR
  • Prices falling for home solar
    Lease customer roof space
    Or help finance solar installations
  • 14kWh & inverter & installation $6.5k
    Tesla have demonstrated demand exists
    Subsidise purchase, use for freq reg, demand flex, & dr
  • Sorek produces 627,000 cubic meters daily
    Sells for $0.58 per cubic meter (1,000 liters)
    Profitable rev of $133m pa
  • Flexiciency - EU platform for sharing DSO data

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