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Taking a Hypothesis Driven Approach

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Hypothesis Driven Development is an approach that helps organisations to implement ideas that have a higher probability of success when fully formed and in the market. Through testing our assumptions and measuring whether the expected outcome of our idea has the potential to be achieved, we begin down the path of building the right thing. We also begin to dismantle the myth that people with the most experience have the best ideas, and instead we start to create an environment where all ideas are equal until backed up by data.

This presentation discusses the value of dismantling assumed knowledge within your organisation and look at how Hypothesis Driven Development can increase your likelihood of building feasible, valuable, usable and delightful products and services.

Published in: Business

Taking a Hypothesis Driven Approach

  1. 1. TAKING A HYPOTHESIS DRIVEN APPROACH Nicola Boyle & Rob Harrison 1
  2. 2. 2 Assumptions Assumptions Assumptions Assumptions Assumptions Assumptions Assumptions Assumptions Assumptions Assumptions Assumptions Assumptions Assumptions Assumptions Assumptions Assumptions Assumptions
  3. 3. 3 Us.
  4. 4. 4 You.
  5. 5. RETWEET I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo
  6. 6. CREATING A HYPOTHESIS 6 We believe that <this change> Will result in <this outcome>. We will know we have succeeded when <we see change in X metric>. Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
  7. 7. SKYPE FOR STAFF 7 We believe that enabling Skype functionality to staff Will result in less staff travel and quicker turnaround times on decision making. We will know we have succeeded when we see that the flights taken by staff, for face to face meetings, have been reduced by 5%. Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
  8. 8. MVP - THE HYPOTHESIS’S BEST FRIEND 8 Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
  9. 9. METRICS THAT MATTER 9 Acquisition Activation Retention Revenue Referral AARRR “PIRATE”
 FUNNEL METRICS Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo” - Dave McClure Acquisition - Number of people who visit your service Activation - Number of people who have a good initial response Retention - Number of people who come back for more Revenue - Number of people from the cohort who engage in revenue-creating activity Referral - Number of people from the cohort who refers other users
  10. 10. ITERATE TO VALIDATE 10 THE VALIDATED LEARNING LOOP • REDUCED RISK & UNCERTAINTY • MORE VALUE SOONER
 • LAYER-IN COMPLEXITY Create hypothesis Design and run experiment Study results Evolve model and implement changes Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
  11. 11. RETWEET I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo
  12. 12. CREATE AN INNOVATION CULTURE 12 Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
  13. 13. DISRUPTS 13 Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo” ACCEPT OR CANCELPHONE, TEXT, EMAIL OR NOTIFICATION MANAGE BOOKING ONLINE
  14. 14. FROM REQUIREMENTS TO HYPOTHESES 14 We believe allowing passengers to change their flight within a seven day period Will result in a better customer experience as passengers will not have to call to manage their booking. We will know we have succeeded when 10% of customers select a new flight within the seven day period. Create hypothesis Design and run experiment Study results Evolve model and implement changes SEVEN DAY CHANGE Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
  15. 15. BUILD AN MVP 15 Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo” THREE DAY CHANGE Create hypothesis Design and run experiment Study results Evolve model and implement changes
  16. 16. CHECK THE RESULTS 16 • Most passengers accepted new flight. • Some passengers changed on day or cancelled. • Very few passengers changed to next day and fewer changed on the third day. Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo” Create hypothesis Design and run experiment Study results Evolve model and implement changes
  17. 17. CONTINUE, PIVOT, STOP 17 • Cost to build seven day change deemed not worth the ROI. • Seven day change feature stopped. • Team able to pick up more valuable feature. Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo” Create hypothesis Design and run experiment Study results Evolve model and implement changes
  18. 18. FROM DONE TO MONITORING 18 Team walls and portfolio wall now have Monitoring instead of Done. Definition of done to move out of monitoring column is ‘Measure outcome’ Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
  19. 19. 19 BECOME A DATA-LED BUSINESS Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
  20. 20. BUILD MEASUREMENT IN 20 “Without data you’re just another person with an opinion” - W. Edwards Deming - • Agreed before development. • An acceptance criteria for every story. • Part of the way of working - it’s not done until you’ve studied the results and acted on them. Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
  21. 21. ISOLATE CHANGE 21 We believe providing the ability to add an extra bag prior to payment only Will result in increased customer satisfaction and speed to complete bookings. We will know we have succeeded when: • There is reduction in complaints from customers related to overloading of information; • Decrease in time to complete a booking (from search to payment); • There is no statistically significant drop-off in customers adding extra bags. Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo” ADD EXTRA BAGS
  22. 22. RETWEET I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo
  23. 23. TRANSFORM YOUR ORGANISATION 23 Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
  24. 24. GUILD WORKSHOP 24 Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo” TRAINING BUSINESS ANALYSTS ON HYPOTHESIS DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT We believe running a one hour session where we introduce the concept, core theory and have participants build a hypothesis based on their existing project Will result in an increase in attendees applying a hypothesis driven approach in their teams. We will know we have succeeded when the average score for attendees is at least a three on a self- assessment scale.
  25. 25. MEASURING SUCCESS 25 Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo” 1. I know nothing about hypothesis driven development. 2. I know a little, but not how to apply it. 3. I could work in a team using it. 4. I could apply the concepts and explain it to others. 5. Move over, I will be presenting this session. SELF-ASSESSMENT
  26. 26. SECOND TIME RUNNING THE SESSION PIVOT 26 Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo” We believe running a ninety minute session where we introduce the concept, core theory and have participants build a hypothesis based on a fictional project Will result in an increase in attendees applying a hypothesis driven approach in their teams. We will know we have succeeded when the average score for attendees is at least a three on a self- assessment scale.
  27. 27. 27 I have not failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that don’t work. — Thomas A. Edison
  28. 28. RESOURCES 28 The Lean Startup - Eric Ries Entrepreneur/Author - Barry O’Reilly The Lean Enterprise - Jez Humble, Joanne Molesky and Barry O’Reilly Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
  29. 29. THANK YOU nboyle@thoughtworks.com robert.harrison@airnz.co.nz “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @Remoterobbo”

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