G L A S S E F F E C T 1
G L A S S E F F E C T
may 2014
raimo van der klein
what mobile technology
is becoming

G L A S S E F F E C T 2
NOSHEMA NOKIA KPN MOBILE MONDAY LAYAR
raimo van der klein

G L A S S E F F E C T
this presentation represents my
personal vision on mobile technology
3

G L A S S E F F E C T 4
in this presentation I divided
mobile technology in 4 fundamental layers
of technological innovation

G L A S S E F F E C T 5
this presentation is also divided
in 4 periods of eight years

G L A S S E F F E C T 6
2000 2008 2016 20241992
START
this story start in 1992 when GSM networks rolled out.
also the year that the first SMS was sent

G L A S S E F F E C T 7
2000 2008 2016 20241992
START
in this same year Nokia decided to solely
focus on telecommunications

G L A S S E F F E C T 8
2000 2008 2016 20241992
START
in this same year Nokia introduced
the slogan Connecting People in an advertisement.
The slogan was written by Ove Strandberg

G L A S S E F F E C T 9
PEOPLE
2000 2008 2016 20241992
START
Analog to Digital
and that is what they did exactly..
PEOPLE

G L A S S E F F E C T 10
PEOPLE
2000 2008 2016 20241992
START
Analog to Digital
Nokia had a phone for every „niche”
PEOPLE

G L A S S E F F E C T 11
PEOPLE
2000 2008 2016 20241992
START
Analog to Digital
Nokia had the most sophisticated
logistical infrastructure to deliver billions of phones all
over the world
PEOPLE

G L A S S E F F E C T 12
PEOPLE
2000 2008 2016 20241992
START
Analog to Digital
PEOPLE
in 2000 we connected the mobile phone to
the internet.

G L A S S E F F E C T 13
PEOPLE
2000 2008 2016 20241992
START
Analog to Digital
PEOPLE
it is in 2000 that a vision was created of
smartphones with broadband internet connections

G L A S S E F F E C T 14
PEOPLE
INTERNET
“Voice to Data”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
2000 2008 2016 20241992
START
Analog to Digital
these are the years that operators needed to convince
us to go from voice to data

G L A S S E F F E C T 15
PEOPLE
INTERNET
“Voice to Data”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
2000 2008 2016 20241992
START
Analog to Digital
broadband networks were built with revenues
from ringtones and sms traffic

G L A S S E F F E C T 16
PEOPLE
INTERNET
“Voice to Data”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
2000 2008 2016 20241992
START
Analog to Digital
a phase with many exotic shaped phones
and many experiments to innovate on the UI level

G L A S S E F F E C T 17
PEOPLE
INTERNET
“Voice to Data”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!
to A-synchronous
1992
START
Analog to Digital
as we approached 2008 our social behavior
moved from synchronous to a-synchronous services

G L A S S E F F E C T 18
PEOPLE
INTERNET
“Voice to Data”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!
to A-synchronous
1992
START
Analog to Digital
social media destinations like twitter and Facebook
became populair on mobile phones
SOCIAL

G L A S S E F F E C T 19
PEOPLE
INTERNET
“Voice to Data”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!
to A-synchronous
1992
START
Analog to Digital
pricepoints of data subscriptions
reached acceptable levels
SOCIAL

G L A S S E F F E C T 20
PEOPLE
INTERNET
“Voice to Data”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!
to A-synchronous
1992
START
Analog to Digital
the iPhone becomes the mould for all others
for the „smartphone”
SOCIAL

G L A S S E F F E C T 21
PEOPLE
INTERNET
“Voice to Data”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!
to A-synchronous
1992
START
Analog to Digital
in 2008 Android was introduced and iPhone made
their first phone with GPS
SOCIAL

G L A S S E F F E C T 22
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!
to A-synchronous
1992
START
Analog to Digital
it is in 2008 that a vision was created of
smartphones with sensors

G L A S S E F F E C T 23
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!
to A-synchronous
1992
START
Analog to Digital
hardware gets more and more sensors

G L A S S E F F E C T 24
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!
to A-synchronous
1992
START
Analog to Digital
hardware is generating huge amount of data
which trigger smart contextual services
CLOUDFrom Apps!
to Big Data

G L A S S E F F E C T 25
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!
to A-synchronous
1992
START
Analog to Digital
this will be the era of the company that distributes
the most sensors in a compelling piece of hardware
CLOUDFrom Apps!
to Big Data
???

G L A S S E F F E C T
the kings of hardware
26

G L A S S E F F E C T 27
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!
to A-synchronous
1992
START
Analog to Digital
CLOUDFrom Apps!
to Big Data
???

G L A S S E F F E C T 28
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!
to A-synchronous
1992
START
Analog to Digital
CLOUDFrom Apps!
to Big Data
AI
BIG DATA
“UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE
From Services!
to Agents
???

G L A S S E F F E C T 29
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!
to A-synchronous
1992
START
Analog to Digital
CLOUDFrom Apps!
to Big Data
AI
BIG DATA
“UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE
From Services!
to Agents
??????

G L A S S E F F E C T 30
the kings of software

G L A S S E F F E C T 31
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!
to A-synchronous
1992
START
Analog to Digital
CLOUDFrom Apps!
to Big Data
???

G L A S S E F F E C T 32
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!
to A-synchronous
1992
START
Analog to Digital
CLOUDFrom Apps!
to Big Data
AI
BIG DATA
“UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE
From Services!
to Agents
AI????

G L A S S E F F E C T
2016: king of wearables
33

G L A S S E F F E C T 34
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!
to A-synchronous
1992
START
Analog to Digital
CLOUDFrom Apps!
to Big Data
???
AI
BIG DATA
“UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE
From Services!
to Agents
AI?

G L A S S E F F E C T
icons of mobile hardware
35
wave 1
1992-2000
“CONNECTING PEOPLE”
wave 2
2000-2008
“CONNECTING INTERNET”
wave 3
2008-2016
“CONNECTING SENSORS”
?Nokia 3210
(160 million sold)
iPhone
(350+ million sold)
No icon device. yet

G L A S S E F F E C T
and how we relate to the hardware
36
wave 1
1992-2000
wave 2
2000-2008
wave 3
2008-2016

G L A S S E F F E C T 37
the 2016 king of hardware will be the company that
has the distribution capabilities to bring sensors to billions.

G L A S S E F F E C T 38
.. and it’s hardware will be wearable and have a
simple AI onboard

G L A S S E F F E C T 39

G L A S S E F F E C T 40
2016: king of context

G L A S S E F F E C T 41
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!
to A-synchronous
1992
START
Analog to Digital
CLOUDFrom Apps!
to Big Data
???
AI
BIG DATA
“UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE
From Services!
to Agents
AI?

G L A S S E F F E C T 42
wave 1
1992-2000
wave 2
2000-2008
wave 3
2008-2016
system for digital voice
icons of mobile software
GSM
voice distribution
App Store
content distribution
no winner yet?
system for real-time contextsystem for internet data

G L A S S E F F E C T 43
wave 1
1992-2000
wave 2
2000-2008
wave 3
2008-2016
system for digital voice
it will either be GLASS
GSM
voice distribution
App Store
content distribution
system for real-time contextsystem for internet data

G L A S S E F F E C T 44
wave 1
1992-2000
wave 2
2000-2008
wave 3
2008-2016
system for digital voice system for internet data
or Google Now..
system for real-time context
GSM
voice distribution
App Store
content distribution

G L A S S E F F E C T
2024: King of AI
45

G L A S S E F F E C T 46
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!
to A-synchronous
1992
START
Analog to Digital
CLOUDFrom Apps!
to Big Data
AI
BIG DATA
“UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE
From Services!
to Agents
??????

G L A S S E F F E C T
1st wave.
PEOPLE
2nd wave
INTERNET
3rd wave
CONTEXT
now we connect everything…
47
ME

G L A S S E F F E C T 48
the phase between 2016 and 2024 will show us many
exotic physical forms of AI and many experiments
trying to innovate on the UX level

G L A S S E F F E C T
from an earpiece
49

G L A S S E F F E C T 50

G L A S S E F F E C T
to a robot
51

Boston Dynamics

or in your house?

NEST

in 2024 we know how to give AI a place in our lives

G L A S S E F F E C T 56
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!
to A-synchronous
1992
START
Analog to Digital
CLOUDFrom Apps!
to Big Data
AI
BIG DATA
“UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE
From Services!
to Agents

G L A S S E F F E C T
as Nokia did not see Apple coming..
what is Google’s blindspot?
57

G L A S S E F F E C T
there is one weak spot
58

G L A S S E F F E C T 59
Google does not like hardware..
trying to „capture” the market through the OS layer..

G L A S S E F F E C T 60
but in 2016 it is not about the
traditional OS on the hardware..
!
hardware by then has evolved
beyond the OS level into smart agents
interacting with the cloud

G L A S S E F F E C T 61
the 2016 king of hardware will be the company that
has the distribution capabilities to bring sensors to billions.
.. and it’s hardware will be wearable and have a
simple AI onboard
+

G L A S S E F F E C T 62
+ AI
.. if Samsung owns AI technology before 2016
they can break Google’s lucky streak

G L A S S E F F E C T
moving the scale to Asia?
63

G L A S S E F F E C T 64
G L A S S E F F E C T