SmallCell Analyst Forecast Shootout

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Three leading industry analysts explain their femtocell and small cell forecasts, stating their assumptions and debating why they differ so much.

Hear what they have to say:
Dimitris Mavrakis, Informa Telecoms and Media
Joe Madden, Mobile Experts
Caroline Gabriel, Rethink Research

Published in: Technology

SmallCell Analyst Forecast Shootout

  1. 1. ThinkSmallCell  Webinar  Series   Small  Cell  Analyst  Forecast  Shoot-­‐Out    Dimitris  Mavrakis   Joe  Madden   Caroline  Gabriel  Principal  Analyst   Founder  and  Principal  Analyst   Research  Director  Informa  Media  and  Telecoms   Mobile  Experts   Rethink  Research    
  2. 2. Agenda   Small  Cell  Analyst  Forecast  Shootout  •  IntroducHon,  David  Chambers,  ThinkSmallCell  •  Analyst  Forecasts  and  AssumpHons   •  Dimitris  Mavrakis,  Informa   •  Joe  Madden,  Mobile  Experts   •  Caroline  Gabriel,  Rethink  Research  •  QuesHon  and  Answer  Session  •  Conclusion  
  3. 3. The  different  categories  of  small  cells   Small  Cells   OR  Femtocells   Small  Cells  Residen,al   Enterprise   Metrocell   Rural  
  4. 4. Issues  with  small  cell  forecasts?  •  Why  such  wide  differences  in  analyst  forecast  numbers?   –  Informa  91  million  by  2016  vs  Mobile  Experts  9  million    •  It’s  always  “next  year”?   –  Why  are  we  seeing  the  same  forecast  numbers,  but  deferred  by   a  year,  every  year?  •  Volume  vs  revenue?   –  ResidenHal  femtocells  in  10’s  of  millions  but  potenHally  larger   revenues  are  associated  with  metro/enterprise  sector  •  CDMA  surprise   –  Why  is  Samsung  reported  to  be  #1  in  shipments  &  #1  in  revenue   today?  
  5. 5. Analyst  Viewpoint   Small  Cell  Analyst  Forecast  Shoot-­‐Out    Dimitris  Mavrakis   Joe  Madden   Caroline  Gabriel  Prinicipal  Analyst   Founder  and  Principal  Analyst   Research  Director  Informa  Media  and  Telecoms   Mobile  Experts   Rethink  Research    
  6. 6. Informa’s femtocell forecasts Femtocell(deploymetns((millions)( !35!! !30!! !25!! !20!! !15!! !10!! !5!! !"!!!! 2011! 2012! 2013! 2014! 2015! 2016! North!America! La6n!America! Asia"Pacific! Europe! Africa/Middle!East! Control  points  (end  2012):   •  Forecasts:  5.48  million  femtocells  deployed   •  AT&T  and  Sprint:  >1  million   •  Vodafone:  500k   •  Global  deployments:  46  19/12/2012 www.informatandm.com
  7. 7. Informa’s small cell forecasts !3,000!! Small%cell%deployments%(thousands)% !2,500!! !2,000!! !1,500!! !1,000!! !500!! !"!!!! 2011! 2012! 2013! 2014! 2015! 2016! Picocells! Microcells! Metrocells! •  Moderate  growth  compared  to  femtocells   •  Revenues  not  proporHonal  to  shipments   •  Microcells  to  dominate  19/12/2012 www.informatandm.com
  8. 8. Why 91 million?•  Femtocell gateways already in place•  Broadband penetration increasing (doubling in most regions)•  Femtocell access points dropping in price•  Advanced CPE •  Vodafone FemtoPlug (including HomePlug)•  CEM becoming more important – coverage a primary concern•  LTE using higher frequencies – indoor penetration problemsOn the other hand:•  WiFi already used indoors and ubiquitous in handsets•  Outdoor/public (carrier grade) small cells more important?19/12/2012 www.informatandm.com
  9. 9. Analyst  Viewpoint   Small  Cell  Analyst  Forecast  Shoot-­‐Out    Dimitris  Mavrakis   Joe  Madden   Caroline  Gabriel  Prinicipal  Analyst   Founder  and  Principal  Analyst   Research  Director  Informa  Media  and  Telecoms   Mobile  Experts   Rethink  Research    
  10. 10. Mobile  Experts  Small  Cell  Forecast  Consumer  Femtocells  are  driven  by  consumer  demand,  not  by  operators    -­‐-­‐Linear  growth  in  sales  Carrier  Grade  Small  Cells  are  driven  by  2x  capacity  every  year    -­‐-­‐Geometric  curve  will  follow  the  data  demand  curve  
  11. 11. Note:    TCO  shown  over  8  year  period   $1,000,000 GSM EDGE $100,000 Cost  per   Mbps  of   Capacity   UMTS                     $10,000 HSPA LTE  Macro LTE HetNet, high  cost  backhaul $1,000 Carrier  Wi-­‐Fi   LTE HetNet, cheap  backhaul $100 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Carrier  Wi-­‐Fi  is  the  cheapest  capacity  solution  available...but  doesn’t  work  everywhere.   New  spectrum  and  LTE  rollout  delays  the  intro  of  small  cells...CAPEX  focused  on  macro   Backhaul  costs  will  dictate  the  data  density  required  for  a  small  cell  to  provide  ROI  www.mobile-­‐experts.net    +1  408.540.7284            Vision  for  Wireless  Ventures    
  12. 12. Analyst  Viewpoint   Small  Cell  Analyst  Forecast  Shoot-­‐Out    Dimitris  Mavrakis   Joe  Madden   Caroline  Gabriel  Prinicipal  Analyst   Founder  and  Principal  Analyst   Research  Director  Informa  Media  and  Telecoms   Mobile  Experts   Rethink  Research    
  13. 13. Small cells (private) December 2012 •  Growth below expectations 60 180   Consumer economics 160 50   User proposition 140 no of operators 40 120 •  Part of toolkit but not m units 100 disruptive 30 80 •  Disruption to supply chain not 20 60 40 user experience 10 20 •  New leap after 2013 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0   Cost Number Domestic   Wi-Fi integration Enterprise Integrated Wi-Fi Commercial operators   New applications   MVNO/hosted services Private small cells by type Iinstalled) Source: Maravedis-Rethink RAN Servicewww.maravedis-bwa.com © Copyright All Rights Reserved Maravedis-Rethink 2012 13 13 Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2012.
  14. 14. Small cells (public)   Step change after 2014 12000   Race for capacity 10000   WiFi integration 8000   LTE-A ,000 units 6000   Importance of indoors 4000   Significant risk factors (-35%)   Standards 2000   Backhaul 0   Supply chain 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Traditional BTS sales Small cell sales Public access small cell saleswww.maravedis-bwa.com & www.rethinkresearch.biz © Copyright All Rights Reserved Maravedis-Rethink 2012
  15. 15. Audience  Poll  –  End  2012  
  16. 16. Audience  Poll  –  End  2016  
  17. 17. Q&A  Session   Small  Cell  Analyst  Forecast  Shoot-­‐Out    Dimitris  Mavrakis   Joe  Madden   Caroline  Gabriel  Prinicipal  Analyst   Founder  and  Principal  Analyst   Research  Director  Informa  Media  and  Telecoms   Mobile  Experts   Rethink  Research    
  18. 18. More  informaHon  •  More  resources/informaHon  at  ThinkSmallCell.com   –  Sign  up  for  our  free  monthly  newsleeer   –  www.thinksmallcell.com/webinars     –  www.thinksmallcell.com/Analysts/femtocell-­‐analyst-­‐reports.html  •  Latest  Small  Cell  Forum  market  report   –  www.smallcellforum.org/smallcellforum/resources-­‐white-­‐papers    •  Contact  today’s  analysts   –  Informa  Telecoms  and  Media:      www.informatandm.com   –  Mobile  Experts:            www.mobile-­‐experts.net   –  Rethink  Research:            www.rethinkresearch.biz  

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