[London 3DPrintShow 2013] Long-Term Economic Impact of 3D Printing

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There is little doubt that 3D printing technologies will change our economies, but how and to what extent? In the current context of worldwide economic crisis and severe environmental challenges, what can we expect the long-term effects of 3D printing technologies to be? What does 3D printing means for re-industrialization and sustainable development? These are some of the questions that this session aims to address. In particular, the issue of the ‘virtuous technological path’ will be discussed.

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[London 3DPrintShow 2013] Long-Term Economic Impact of 3D Printing

  1. 1. Looking Ahead The Long Term Economic Impact of 3D Printing
  2. 2. Prof. Thierry Rayna Professor of Economics Department of Economics & Finance Chair of Digital Business ESG Management School, Paris Email: trayna@esg.fr
  3. 3. Outline Technological and adoption trends Opportunities and challenges Will 3D Printing change the economy? Public policies
  4. 4. TECHNOLOGICAL & ADOPTION TRENDS
  5. 5. te in Pr r D 3 an c S 3D r e n
  6. 6. Technology $20 0K s er ym ol P 1980 … $20K $1K $5 00 $10 l … Meta Ce!s s lastic P a!oys s Sugar ramic Ce colate Cho 2000 … 2010 … 0… 2020 … Costs
  7. 7. Many 3D Printing Technologies Stereolithography (SLA) Fused Deposition Modelling (FDM) Laminated Object Manufacturing (LOM) Selective Laser Sintering (SLS) Laser Deposition Technology (LDT) Electron Beam Freeform Fabrication (EBF3)
  8. 8. Tree vs. Forest Technology
  9. 9. Tree vs. Forest SLA FDM LOM SLS LDT EBF3
  10. 10. Many materials Plastics Salt Metal alloys Cells Ceramics Molecules Wood … Sugar Chocolate
  11. 11. WHAT CAN YOU DO WITH 3D PRINTING?
  12. 12. ANYTHING!
  13. 13. Toys Simple ones…
  14. 14. Toys Complex ones
  15. 15. Smartphone cases simple ones
  16. 16. Smartphone cases Very advanced ones
  17. 17. Household items Simple ones
  18. 18. Household items More complex ones
  19. 19. Dishes Creative ones
  20. 20. Silverware
  21. 21. Food
  22. 22. Tools
  23. 23. Cisors
  24. 24. Shoes
  25. 25. Shoes+Smartphone case
  26. 26. Clothes
  27. 27. Jewellery Works with gold too…
  28. 28. Cars
  29. 29. Car parts
  30. 30. Car keys
  31. 31. Body parts
  32. 32. Organs
  33. 33. Drugs
  34. 34. The question is not what can you print… The question is what CAN’T you print…
  35. 35. $2 0,0 $1, 00 00 0 FDM Printer 8 materials (1 at a time)
  36. 36. $2 50, $1, 00 00 0 0? Object500 Connex 100 materials (14 at a time)
  37. 37. Usage and adoption trends Very few consumers own 3D printers But: 3D printers have already left the factories They have already reached offices They will reach the homes tomorrow Many, many ‘big names’ supporting 3D printing
  38. 38. ‘Additive’ adoption Adoption Home fabrication Digital manufacturing Rapid Tooling Rapid prototyping 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
  39. 39. OPPORTUNITIES & CHALLENGES
  40. 40. Rich Karlgraad, 2011 “3D Printing is the transformative technology of the 2015–2025 period”
  41. 41. Chris Anderson, 2012 “Desktop manufacturing revolution [. . . ] will change the world as much as the personal computer did”
  42. 42. Barack Obama, 2013 “3D printing that has the potential to revolutionize the way we make almost everything.”
  43. 43. OPPORTUNITIES
  44. 44. 3D Printing – Opportunities Creativity Entrepreneurship Innovation Sustainability
  45. 45. Opportunity: Creativity Costly to be creative 3D printing lowers costs Rapid prototyping for everyone ‘Live objects’: incremental improvements Meet the demand: know what customers want
  46. 46. Opportunity: Entrepreneurship ‘Kickstarter 2.0’ Anyone can be an entrepreneur ‘On-demand’ production Virtually no pre-commitment on quantity Venture capital obsolete? Community-based entrepreneurship
  47. 47. Opportunity: Innovation Creativity + Entrepreneurship = Innovation
  48. 48. Opportunity: Sustainability Additive vs. subtractive Actual demand vs. estimated demand Local manufacturing vs remote manufacturing Fewer resources needed
  49. 49. CHALLENGES
  50. 50. 3D Printing – Challenges Intellectual property rights Prosumers Incentives and rewards Responsibilities and liability
  51. 51. Challenge: Intellectual Property Rights Consumer piracy Will happen Will not be stopped by technology and law Massive co-creation What IPR for that?
  52. 52. Skills & knowledge embedded in: the object $ 3,500 $ 3,499 the builder
  53. 53. Challenge: Prosumers Consumers producers = Prosumers Consumers involved in Design Distribution Manufacturing
  54. 54. Challenge: Incentives and Rewards Standard contract: agreed output + deadline + predefined payment Sign a contract with 1,000s of people? How to define the output and its value? What about rewards? Money can be a disincentive Consumers don’t do it for money, but what for then?
  55. 55. Challenge: Liability Who is responsible when a 3D printed object does not meet expectations or fails? Designer? Hosting platform? Printer manufacturer? Consumables manufacturer? Consumer?
  56. 56. LONG-TERM ECONOMIC IMPACT OF DIGITAL MANUFACTURING
  57. 57. Long-term economic effects Innovation unleashed Return of manufacturing Massive cost savings Regional and global development Tooling Transport Storage Waste Competitiveness Sustainable growth
  58. 58. Take risk in a risk-free environment Growth requires to innovate Innovating is risky and costly Digital Manufacturing enables to take risks in an (almost) risk-free environment
  59. 59. Towards a third industrial revolution Radical changes in the economy Profound reorganisation of industrial sectors Profound reorganisation of society?
  60. 60. Towards a rd 3 Wave? 1st Wave 2nd Wave 3rd Wave Type Agricultural Age Industrial Age Information Age Key resource Land Non-renewable resources Information* Key organisation Village Corporation Communities? Family Extended Nuclear Diverse? Roles Integrated Consumer/producer split Prosumers Production Custom Mass Custom Economy Decentralised Concentrated ?
  61. 61. Will it be the end of mass production? Probably not: People may like the same things Customisation is uneconomical for large quantities But: It might be the end of concentrated production
  62. 62. Will everyone have a 3D printer? Probably not after all some people still do not have TV! probably uneconomical to have a multi-material printer in each home
  63. 63. WHAT ROLE FOR GOVERNMENTS?
  64. 64. The role of governments Steer and grow the ecosystem Trigger adoption Help building a safe and trustworthy environment for digital manufacturing Rethink IPRs and find new forms of incentives
  65. 65. Embrace 3D Printing The cat is out of the bag: 3D Printing can’t be prevented, so embrace it! Transformative effects as high as Personal Computing or even the Internet Where would countries who had not embraced such technologies be now?
  66. 66. 3D Printing Biomimicry Big Data Internet of Things
  67. 67. Building bridges...
  68. 68. Thank you

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