Welcome, due to recent announcements I’ve had to change the ending of this speech a few times this week but we’ll get to that later. In the next 20 minutes we will be looking at Intelligent Mobility and why its time is right to help our congested networks be they roads, rail, air or waterways.Intelligent Mobility is all about optimising vehicle movements. The strain on the UK’s transport network which is estimated to cost £12bn a year and we will look at the role that Intelligent Mobility can playin reducing this strainand the importance of collaboration between government, infrastructure providers, and technologists.
So lets look at the problem – we will look at congestion, pollution, the environment and the economy.
We know that the UK is great at congestion – we are ranked as 5th in the world. It costs us £12 billion – but this is not a temporary problem: congestion will continue in the absence of measures to reduce traffic, it is infeasible to match a transport build programme to match the unrestricted trends in traffic growth.But it isn’t just the roads, when discussing the potential for the Northern Way, freeing rail congestion around Manchester, Prof David Begg, said that "greater connectivity across Manchester would bring between £13bn and £16bn economic benefits for the north of England and beyond.“However when we look to modal shift ….Read more at: http://menmedia.co.uk/manchestereveningnews/news/s/1111595_rail_congestion_losing_16bnIn Manchester alone it is expected that the economy is missing out on up to £16bn because of rail congestion around the city (http://menmedia.co.uk/manchestereveningnews/news/s/1111595_rail_congestion_losing_16bn)Figures from SMMT: http://www.smmt.co.uk/2011/12/automotive-council-report-calls-for-new-approach-to-tackle-road-congestion/ Congestion charge figure: Intelligent Mobility: A national need? P.6
However when we look to modal shift we can’t ignore that road vehicles (cars, vans and taxis) dominate the passenger landscape. They account for more than 90% of the total distance travelled.Perhaps part of this trend is due to the population numbers…..Department for Transport (2010) Transport Statistics Great Britain www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/statistics/datatablespublications/modal/passenger/tsgb0101.xls
Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the UK’s populationis set to rise from 62.3 million in 2010 to 67.2 million by 2020 and 73.2 million by 2035. That’s a rise of 10.9 million people by 2035. Change and flexibility is essential as the UK Transport network is expected to adapt and accommodate such changes to the population with increasing demand to access social and economic opportunities not forgetting all the freight which will need to be moved around the country to feed and cloth these additional numbers. Population figure: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-15461579
We often focus on safety, and in 2010 there were unfortunately 1857 fatalities on UK roads; this was the lowest record number since records began back in 1926. However air quality is also an issue with road transport account for 22% of the total UK CO2 emissions. Also in 2010 the Committee On the Medical Effects of Air Pollutants (COMEAP) estimated that air pollution contributed to theearlier deaths of up to 200,000 people. I suggest we need to act both on safety but also on the impacts of air quality. CO2 data: Environmental protection UK: http://www.environmental-protection.org.uk/transport/car-pollution/ and http://www.thepep.org/clearinghouse/docfiles/the.future.of.transport.pdf COMEAP - http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=8&ved=0CFYQFjAH&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cleanairinlondon.org%2F_attachments%2F4708695%2FCAL%2520120%2520211210%2520COMEAP%2520Mortality%2520Effects%2520Press%2520Release%25202010.pdf&ei=9kFqT5ewEIqx0AW945zrCA&usg=AFQjCNF1w9nVuSRx4mlINVMJV83IDoNUCA
And finally the economy, I’ve already quoted some very large numbers of the impacts of our inefficient transport network; Efficient use of the whole network in an integrated way is essential to maintain investment and confidence in the UK’s ability to meet business demands through effective freight transfer, logistics and people movement. And so I support the Government’s statement that “a modern transport infrastructure is essential for a dynamic and entrepreneurial economy”Government quote: HM Government (2010) The Coalition: Our Programme for Government Economic value : http://www.berginsight.com/ReportPDF/Summary/bi-its-sum.pdf
I guess there is no surprises there – with the investment into some significant infrastructure programmes we need to look at how Intelligent Mobility can be built in at design to provide greater capacity whilst keeping the investment as low as possible.
Intelligent Mobility enables the optimisation of vehicle movements through the use of the recent boom in communications and location-based technologies. You see some of the examples of what can be achieved with Intelligent Mobility. Through this proliferation of information we can now treat the transport network as a whole rather than a collection of inter-connected objects For example imagine a bus today. It turns up to a station, picks up what passengers who are waiting and continues with its route. The timetable of the bus will hopefully have been scheduled with the arrival of a train. If the train is delayed the passengers need to wait or find alternate routes, perhaps using a taxi.With Intelligent Mobility the bus is aware that a train is delayed and as it also knows about the road conditions it can optimise its speed to minimise fuel use and emissions on its route to the rail station rather than keep to the fixed timetable. It can then wait to pick up the delayed passengers and continue along its route; again optimising its speed against the timetable, road conditions and distance from other buses on the network. This results in a lower fuel costs for the bus operator, lower emissions and greater satisfaction for the travellers – all whilst ensuring public transport is used rather than perhaps taxis which increase congestion. This is one example of what we can do today….
We have a number of other Intelligent Mobility technologies available today. Predictive traffic flows allow preventative measures to be taken – today this is in the form of traffic information services – but in the future this would include dynamic routing information taking a holistic approach rather than the individual approach our sat navis do today. We’ve seen how managed motorways have been a great success where the hard shoulder is open at peak times to enable more throughput of vehicles. But also Green Waves where traffic isn’t subject to seemingly random stop/start at traffic lights.We can provide accurate time of arrival to the recipient – no longer waiting in all dayThough greater choice modal shift will happen- journey planners are just the start of this process though.With the increase in EV adoption, fuel tax revenues will decrease – increased tolling may be necessary. If all of these are available today why is there still a problem. One of the main challenges is to link these technologies into systems and services. I see 3 reasons for this and I’m pleased to report that these main barriers are being broken down:1. We are seeing a tend towards integrated transport authorities who look over the whole transport network, but apart from TfL this is relatively new development. This has resulted in point solutions being procured rather than taking a holistic approach to the transport network in a region.2. Data has been silo’d. It has been kept within an organisation and not shared; however this is changing and we are seeing data being made more freely available to not only other organisations but also small app developers. This is resulting in a great wealth of additional services being available and I do believe we are only at the tip of the iceberg in this regard. 3. And finally there is also the issue of funding – the benefits of these systems are often felt not with the organisation who are investing in the technology to begin with. For example putting the technology to allow vehicles to be monitored for the drivers behaviour is best undertaken by the Auto OEM, but it is the insurance firms who benefit from the information which it provides. Until new business models and ecosystems can be developed this challenge will always remain.But what of the future:
The convergence of technologies, systems and stakeholders leads to the idea of machine to machine communication and ultimately autonomous control can become a realityM2M refers to machines or devices that can communicate with other machines or devices, on either wired or wireless networks, to pass information on events, which are then be acted upon. We are starting to see these technologies being looked at by the Automotive OEMs primarily for safety implications; collision detection systems involving blind spots. But extend this to information for traffic authorities who can then manage the information drivers receive – could we see micro-routing around emission sensitive areas like schools and hospitals?In October last year, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration in the US filed a report on the potential safety benefits of vehicle-to-vehicle communication, and it estimated that intelligent vehicles could help in as many as 4.3 million police-reported light-vehicle crashes annually – this was about 81%of all light-vehicle crashes involving drivers unimpaired bydrugs or alcohol.For me this is the future of Intelligent Mobility – when the information flows leaves the vehicle rather than just into it. Factor figure taken from Automotive council report.
So I leave you with a question for the rest of the day. However back to those recent Government announcements, perhaps I’ve been pipped to the post
In Dec 2009 the Automotive Council was established, and Intelligent Mobility is one its “Sticky Technologies”The DfT has set aside £17 million to support this centre, which is in addition to the Technology Strategy Board contribution.”To me they are talking about Intelligent Mobility
Sustainable Efficient Road Transport (SERT) 2012 - Intelligent Mobility A national need?
Intelligent Mobility:A National Need !Theo QuickSERT@GVC 2012@TheoQuickWork
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