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The Transfer Project: Reflections After Ten Years

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Ashu Handa (UNC) and Benjamin Davis' (FAO) opening presentation at the Transfer Project Workshop in Arusha, Tanzania on 2nd April 2019.

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The Transfer Project: Reflections After Ten Years

  1. 1. THE TRANSFER PROJECT: REFLECTIONS AFTER TEN YEARS BENJAMIN DAVIS (FAO) & ASHU HANDA (UNC) @TRANSFERPROJCT #TPARUSHA19
  2. 2. OUTLINE Dakar 2017 Background of Transfer Project Highlights of evidence generated on CTs Summary of key agenda items Logistics and tips to making workshop a success Group selfie
  3. 3. TP started in response to need for evidence in the SSA context NUMBER OF NEW PROGRAMMES LAUNCHED IN SSA
  4. 4. RAPID SCALE-UP OF NEW PROGRAMMES IN TRANSFER PROJECT COUNTRIES 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Zimbabwe Ghana (LEAP) Mozambique PSSB Malawi SCTP Lesotho CGP Kenya CT-OVC+OAP Tanzania Ethiopia PSNP Zambia SCT Percent of population covered by CT in Transfer Project focal countries 2007-2009 2019
  5. 5. BUT FINANCING & SUSTAINABILITY STILL AN ISSUE 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 TNZ (PSSN) Zimbabwe (HSCT) Malawi (SCTP) Ethiopia (PSNP 4) Lesotho (CGP Ghana Zambia Kenya (CT-OVC) Mozambique Funding of National CT Programs Domestic Donor
  6. 6. SO WHAT IS THE TRANSFER PROJECT? A group of people/entities interested in learning about the impact of state-sponsored CTs in SSA National governments Implementers, demanders of evidence UNICEF Country and Regional Offices ‘On the ground’ social protection partner of government Coordinate activities, facilitate sharing across countries FAO HQ and Country Offices Understand the productive impacts and links to agricultural and rural development UNC and other research groups Team with government to conduct research
  7. 7. UNIQUE MODEL OF CONDUCTING EVALUATIONS • Researchers and implementers are on the same team • Strong involvement of all stakeholders in research process • From design to questions to results dissemination and interpretation • Transparency and accountability • Impact evaluation part of a wider research agenda • What are the big questions? • What other research is useful? • Who are the key consumers?
  8. 8. TRANSFER PROJECT WORKSHOPS TO SHARE RESULTS ACROSS THE REGION, REFLECT ON NEW EVIDENCE GAPS, NETWORK Kamagenge says “Next year in Tanzania” 39 43 47 51 90 130 125 2010 2011 2012 2013 2016 2017 2019 Number of Transfer Project Workshop Participants
  9. 9. OVERVIEW OF TRANSFER PROJECT EVALUATIONS (INCOMPLETE) Country (program) Targeting (in addition to poverty) Sample size (HH) Methodology LEWIE Youth Years of data collection Ethiopia (SCTP) Labour-constrained 3,351 Longitudinal PSM X 2012, 2013, 2014 Ghana (LEAP) Elderly, disabled or OVC 1,614 Longitudinal PSM X 2010, 2012, 2016 Ghana (LEAP 1000) Pregnant women, child<2 2,500 RDD 2015, 2017 Kenya (CT-OVC) OVC 1,913 RCT X X 2007, 2009, 2011 Lesotho (CGP) OVC 1,486 RCT X 2011, 2013 Madagascar LUL/TMDH School-age or child <5 2799 RCT 2016, 2017 Malawi (SCTP) Labour-constrained 3,500 RCT X X 2011, 2013, 2015 South Africa (CSG) Child <18 2,964 Longitudinal PSM X 2010, 2011 Tanzania (PSSN) Food poor 801 RCT X 2015, 2017 Tanzania (PSSN Cash Plus) Food poor 2209 RCT X 2017, 2018, 2019 Zambia (CGP) Child 0-5 2,519 RCT X 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017 Zambia (MCTG) Female, elderly, disabled, OVC 3,078 RCT X 2011, 2013, 2014 Zimbabwe (HSCT) Food poor, labour- constrained 3,063 Longitudinal matched case- control X X 2013, 2014, 2017
  10. 10. WHAT HAVE WE LEARNT AFTER TEN YEARS OF THE TRANFER PROJECT? CTs improve food security across the board Ultra-poor households spend cash to increase their productive capacity Strong effects on school enrollment at secondary level Mixed results on health spending and outcomes CTs generate important benefits to the local economy
  11. 11. ACROSS-THEBOARD IMPACTS ON FOOD SECURITY Ethiopia SCTP Ghana LEAP Kenya CT- OVC Lesotho CGP Malawi SCTP Zambia MCTG Zambia CGP Zim HSCT Spending on food & quantities consumed Pc food expenditures (overall)         Pc expenditure (food items)       Kilocalories per capita   Frequency & diversity of food consumption Number of meals per day    Dietary diversity/Nutrient rich food       Food consumption behaviours Coping strategies adults/ children     Food insecurity access scale    Source: Hjelm 2016 (The impact of cash transfers on food security): https://transfer.cpc.unc.edu/wp- content/uploads/2015/09/The-Impact-of-Cash-Transfers-on-Food-Security.pdf  Protective impact No impact
  12. 12. STRONG IMPACT ON PRODUCTIVE ACTIVITIES, WITH VARIATION ACROSS COUNTRIES Crop Livestock NFE Productive labor Social Networks Risk management Zambia      Malawi   X    Zimbabwe    X X  Lesotho   X X   Kenya X  X  Ethiopia  X X X  Ghana X X X    Reduction in casual ag labor and increase in household economic activities—no general work disincentive, elasticity of leisure is low Synergies between cash and productive plus
  13. 13. RESILIENCE: INCREASED SHOCK ABSORPTIVE CAPACITY Positive increases in resiliency in Zambia, MLW, Lesotho, ZIM Malawi: Shift in FAO-RIMA index in beneficiary households after two years 0 .005 .01 .015 .02 0 20 40 60 80 100 RCI BL-C BL-T 0 .005 .01 .015 .02 0 20 40 60 80 100 RCI EL-C EL-T
  14. 14. Household multiplier effect greater than 1 in a few countries. Can these programmes pay for themselves? Impacts are based on econometric results and averaged across all follow-up surveys. Estimates for productive tools and livestock derived by multiplying average increase (numbers) by market price. Only statistically significant impacts are considered.
  15. 15. Cash transfers lead to income multipliers across the region 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Kenya (Nyanza) Ethiopia (Abi- Adi) Zimbabwe Zambia Kenya (Garissa) Lesotho Ghana Ethiopia (Hintalo) Nominal multiplier Real multiplier Every 1 Birr transferred can generate 2.52 Birr of income If constraints are binding, may be as low as 1.84 Income multiplier is greater than 1 in every country
  16. 16. Strong school enrollment impacts (secondary age): Equal to those from CCTs in Latin America 8 3 7 8 15 8 9 12 6 9 6 10 Primary enrollment already high, impacts at secondary level. Ethiopia is all children age 6-16. Bars represent percentage point impacts; all impact are significant except Zimbabwe.
  17. 17. Significant increase in children’s material well-being: Children with shoes, change of clothes, blanket 11 26 30 23 32 26 Ghana (LEAP) Lesotho (CGP) Malawi (SCTP) Zambia (MCTG) Zambia (CGP) Zim (HSCT) Percentage point program impact Lesotho includes shoes and school uniforms only, Ghana is schooling expenditures for ages 13-17. Other countries are shoes, change of clothes, blanket ages 5-17.
  18. 18. Young child health and morbidity Regular impacts on morbidity, but less consistency on care seeking Ghana LEAP Kenya CT-OVC Lesotho CGP Malawi SCTP Zambia CGP Zimbabwe HSCT Proportion of children who suffered from an illness/Frequency of illnesses       Preventive care    Curative care     Enrollment into the National Health Insurance Scheme  Vitamin A supplementation  Supply of services typically much lower than for education sector. More consistent impacts on health expenditure (increases)  Protective impact No impact
  19. 19. 36% 42% 17% 11% 44% 44% 28% Kenya (N=1,443) Malawi (N=1,635) Zimbabwe (N=787) South Africa, girls (N = 440) Treat Control -2 pp (NS)-7 pp impact** Note: Results from multivariate adjusted models (ages of youth vary by country), Kenya results (Handa et al. 2014), SA results using dosage models, mean is overall sample (Heinrich et al. 2015) Kenya and Zimbabwe impacts driven by girls *10% significance, **5% significance; ***1% significance. -13 pp impact*** -11 pp impact*** CTs can enable safe transition to adulthood: Delayed sexual debut among young people
  20. 20. PROGRAMME DESIGN CAN AFFECT IMPACTS
  21. 21. Predictability of payment Regular and predictable transfers facilitate planning, consumption smoothing and investment 0 1 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 #ofpayments Zambia CGP 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 #ofpayments Ghana LEAP Regular and predictableLumpy and irregular
  22. 22. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Kenya CT- OVC (big hh) Burkina Faso Ghana LEAP (2011) Kenya CT- OVC (2010) Malawi SCT (2013) South Africa CSG (2012) Lesotho CGP (2011) Ghana LEAP (2012) Kenya CT- OVC (small hh) Zimbabwe HSCT (2013) Zambia CGP (2014) Zambia MCP (2014) Malawi SCT (2008) Bigger transfer means more impact Widespread impact Selective impact %orpercapitaincomeofpoor
  23. 23. Demographic profile of beneficiaries Under 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85 to 89 Over 90 1000 500 500 1000population Males Females Ghana LEAP Under 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85 to 89 Over 90 2000 500 500 2000population Males Females Zambia CGP More able-bodied, younger children More labour-constrained, older children
  24. 24. Agenda highlights: Day 1 Group selfie (in a few minutes) Day 1 focuses on ‘graduation’ From what and for whom? Are graduation programs social protection? New element: political economy of social protection Evidence is not everything! How do we explain the variation in scale-up experience Poster session at end of day, followed by Cocktail (!)
  25. 25. Agenda highlights: Day 2 A ‘packed’ day—be prepared Spotlight on TNZ – PSSN Gender, child work, cash+ Work hard then play! Evening social activity from 8PM Team-work, brain-teasers, etc No experience necessary Refreshments provided by Ben and Ashu, spectators welcome
  26. 26. Logistics and important tips Coffee and lunch provided, on your own for dinner Please wear name tags, state name/affiliation when making intervention the first time Keep interventions concise please Speak slowly and into mic for translators No program is perfect, lets learn from each other State your challenges, let your colleagues help you This workshop is a ‘safe space’ to discuss concerns
  27. 27. Logistics and important tips Answering email in your room at night is not allowed Please join us in lobby of Mount Meru after dinner Ashu has lots and lots of chocolates to share Ashu and Ben will buy your first refreshment Talk to at least one person you don’t know each day Awards Committee members please report to Sara Abdoulayi for instructions
  28. 28. Addis Ababa, 2016 Aberdares, Kenya 2012 Naivasha, Kenya 2011 Celebrating the collective human spirit

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