#116N Global Castor Conference - 23 to 24th February 2018, at Ahmedabad, Gujarat

1. “INDIAN CASTOR SEED & OIL SCENARIO & EXPECTATIONS”
Mr Pankaj Kumar
Senior Vice-President -Trading
Adani Wilmar Limited
My dear friends,
For the first time since 2010, the world economy outperformed most predictions in 2017- a trend
that Goldman Sachs research economists see not only continuing but amplifying in 2018. They
predict 4% GDP growth a forecast above consensus expectations. With macro fundamentals
broadly intact, the global economy is expected to have another solid year of growth.
After conceding its position as the fastest growing major economy to China for a year in 2017,
India is likely to reclaim the position in 2018 with growth expected to accelerate to 7.3% as
compared to 6.4% of China.
To materialise its enormous growth potential India need to take serious action in right direction.
Castor Scenario
Like India our castor industry also have huge growth potential. To materialise the same we need
to take serious steps to boost investment into castor derivatives i.e. value added products – only
way to survive and grow in long run.
For Castor industry too, the year 2017 was one for record books. Castor industry managed
successfully all disruptions caused by demonetisation just over a year ago and the poorly
planned rollout of GST in middle of 2017 and created a new record by exporting 625550 MT
castor oil in 2017.
Congratulations to whole castor fraternity for such a wonderful performance.
In view of increasing dominance of India in world castor production it would be appropriate here
to have a quick glance over Indian castor scenario.
INDIAN CASTOR SCENARIO
- Indian crop size is estimated at 12.50 lakh tons during 2017-18 – higher by 17.92% as compared
to 10.60 lakh tons in previous year due to higher yield.
- Total area under castor decreased by 1.68% mainly due to decline in Rajasthan by 6%, Andhra
Pradesh 28%, Telangana by 28% and in other states by 35%. However area in Gujarat
increased by 6%.

2. - With carry over stock of 2.44 lakh tons the total availability would be 14.94 lakh tons during 2017-
18 lower by 27.48% as compared to 20.60 lakh tons in 2016-17
Basis Indian supply scenario let us have a quick glance over world castor balance sheet attached
herewith as Annexure A.
GLOBAL CASTOR SCENARIO
- World crop size for 2017-18 estimated at 14.17 lakh tons – up by 15.48% as compared to 12.27
lakh tons in previous year.
Considering carry over stock of 2.44 lakh tons in India, the overall global supply position during
2017-18 would be 16.61 lakh tons – down by 25.42% as compared to 22.27 lakh tons in previous
year.
- India’s contribution is expected to increase from 86.39% (10.60 lakh tons) in 2016-17 to 88.21%
(12.50 lakh tons) in 2017-18
- Crop size of Brazil, China & Others countries is expected to remain unchanged.
DEMAND SCENARIO
Basis data published by DGFT, during 2017 shipments from India increased by 10.72% (as
compared to previous year) to a record high as per details given below.
CASTOR OIL & DERIVATIVES
Year
2017 2018 (Est.)
A. Export Qty. (MT) Qty. (MT)
i) Castor Oil of Different Grades * 625550 656800
ii) Castor Derivatives 160000 168000
B. Domestic Consumption 50000 52500
Gross Total (A+B) 835550 877300
*For 2017 – castor oil export data is based on actual DGFT figures up to October plus SEA
data for November and December.
Export of castor oil from India has been growing at CAGR of 4.77% over a period of last 3 years.
We expect the trend to continue in 2018. Both Shipments of Castor Oil & Derivatives and
domestic consumption are estimated to go up by 5%.

3. INDIA’S CASTOR BALANCE SHEET
Let us summarize the demand and supply position in the form of balance sheet and assess its
impact on price behaviour.
CASTOR BALANCE SHEET 2017 2018 (Est.)
Qty. (MT) Qty. (MT)
Opening Stock Of Castor Seed 1000000 244000
Crop Size 1060000 1250000
Total Supply Of Castor Seed 2060000 1494000
A. Total Qty. In Terms Of Oil (46%) 947600 687240
Less:
1. Exports of Oil from India 625550 656800
2. Derivatives 160000 168000
3. Domestic Consumption 50000 52500
B. Total Usage (1+2+3) 835550 877300
C. Surplus(+) / Shortage (-) Oil (A-B) 112050 -190060
In Terms of Seed (1 MT oil = 2.1739 MT seeds) 243585 -413171
i.e. rounded off 244000 -413000
Note:
1) Oil export figures are based on data published by DGFT, India.
It can be easily concluded that there is mismatch between demand & supply. The impact of tight
supply position on prices may be visible during second half of the year.
EXPECTED SCENARIO
1. Overall demand led by actual consumption – expected to go up by 4% to 5%.
2. Supply will not be able to meet expected demand.
3. Prices are expected to gradually increase during second half of the year. The possibility of any
drastic fall seems to be remote provided fundamentals prevail.
4. Considering firm trend in crude price during 2017-18 we expect consumption of castor based
products will continue to increase under present scenario.
5. Indian manufacturers and importers may be aggressive buyer of castor seed & oil respectively
during first half of the year to secure inventory at lower prices.
6. Speculators are necessary part of castor trade and hope they would continue to look for new
opportunities/adventures as done in the past.

4. 7. Implementation of E-way bill system by Government in near future will make castor trade
more transparent and healthy.
8. New production capacities / facilities are expected for value added products in near future.
9. Battle among exchanges set to hot up after SEBI’s approval for convergence of stock and
commodity trading platforms. Hope future exchanges under guidance and control of SEBI
will play a more responsible role to support castor trade & industry.
10. Expect more volatility in foreign currencies behaviour.
Thanks for patient hearing.