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Why AbbVie Inc. Slumped 13% In September


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Amid a widespread industry sell-off and in the wake of positive trial data from competitor Gilead Sciences, shares in AbbVie, Inc tumbled by 12.8% last months. AbbVie's under pressure to overcome looming headwinds tied to the fast-approaching patent expiration on its top selling drug, Humira, but its unclear whether its efforts will succeed. In the following slideshow, I highlight the risks to AbbVie and how it hopes to overcome them.

Published in: Healthcare
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Why AbbVie Inc. Slumped 13% In September

  1. 1. Why Abbvie Inc. Slumped 13% In September
  2. 2. What: • The large cap biopharma company is investing heavily in R&D to offset risk tied to the looming patent expiration of Humira. – Humira generates more than $12 billion in annual sales. – Humira accounts for 63% of year-to-date revenue. • Expansion into hepatitis C offers billion dollar potential. – Competitor Gilead Sciences reports positive phase 3 data for its pan-genotype hepatitis C drug on September 21. • Shares dropped 12.8% in September. Source Juno Therapeutics
  3. 3. AbbVie Inc.
  4. 4. So what: • Humira is AbbVie’s top selling therapy. – Sales of $6.6 billion through the first six months of 2015. – Patent protection ends on Humira in 2016. • AbbVie launched Viekira Pak for hepatitis C in Q1 2015 – Viekira Pak Q2 sales tracking at an annualized $1.5 billion pace.
  5. 5. So what continued:
  6. 6. So what continued: • Gilead Sciences announces positive data for next-generation, pan-genotype hepatitis C therapy. – 99% overall cure rate, including 98% rate in genotype 1. • Could reduce demand for Viekira Pak in genotype 1 patients. – Robust efficacy across genotypes 1 to 6. • Could remove need for genotype testing. • Could outmaneuver AbbVie’s pan-genotype next generation therapy: ABT-493 + ABT-530.
  7. 7. Now what: • Humira patent risk looms, but efforts underway on next-generation autoimmune drugs. • ABT-494: Advancing into late stage trials by year end. – 82% of rheumatoid arthritis patients achieved a 20% or greater improvement in symptoms in phase 2 trials. – In anti-TNF (such as Humira) non-responders, 71% achieved a 20% or greater improvement. – Safety profile potentially better than Humira with most common adverse event being headache. – Oral dosing rather than injection dosing like Humira.
  8. 8. Now what continued: • Significant opportunity in oncology. – Acquired Pharmacyclics in May to get Imbruvica. • Fast growing drug with billion dollar annual sales potential. – Venetoclax potential regulatory filing by year end. • Relapsed/refractory CLL with 17p deletion genetic mutation. – Elotuzumab filed for approval. • Decision expected in February 2016. • Improved progression free survival when added to standard of care.
  9. 9. Now what continued: • Absent a Humira successor, significant risk remains. • Continue to monitor progress on oncology pipeline. • Look for insight into timeline for next-generation pan- genotype HCV therapies during Q3 EPS report. • Recent decline may offer opportunity if company can execute on its plan to overcome Humira risk. – Underweight in portfolios until clarity exists.
  10. 10. Leaked: The next billion-dollar iSecret