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  1. 1. Caso Flash Memory Area Finance Dott.ssa Barbara MondaMaster of Business Administration5° Master Part Time - Week End 2010 MIP - Riproduzione riservata – Barbara Monda
  2. 2. Domande 1. Ipotizzando che l’azienda non investa nella nuova linea di prodotti, preparate i conti economici e gli stati patrimoniali prospettici per gli anni 2010, 2011 e 2012. Basandovi su queste previsioni, stimate il fabbisogno finanziario di Flash 2. Qual è il costo medio ponderato del capitale di Flash? 3. Cosa consigliereste a proposito dell’investimento nella nuova linea di prodotti? L’azienda dovrebbe accettare o rifiutare questa opportunità di investimento? 4. Che impatto avrebbero le vostre raccomandazioni del punto precedente sulle previsioni dei conti economici e stati patrimoniali e sul fabbisogno finanziario? Che differenze ci sarebbero in queste previsioni se l’azienda non si finanziasse solo con le notes payable ma decidesse di emettere nuove azioni? 5. Se foste il CFO Hathaway Browne, quale alternativa di finanziamento suggerireste al CdA per coprire il fabbisogno finanziario delle domande 1 e 4? Quali sono i costi e i benefici di ciascuna alternativa? Master of Business Administration 5° Master Part Time - Week End 2010 MIP - Riproduzione riservata – Barbara Monda 2
  3. 3. Ipotesi Master of Business Administration 5° Master Part Time - Week End 2010 MIP - Riproduzione riservata – Barbara Monda 3
  4. 4. 1. Conti economici prospettici ($000) Actual Forecast 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Sales $77,131 $80,953 $89,250 $120,000 $144,000 $144,000COGS $62,519 $68,382 $72,424 $97,322 $116,784 $116,784 Gross margin $14,612 $12,571 $16,826 $22,678 $27,216 $27,216R&D $3,726 $4,133 $4,416 $6,000 $7,200 $7,200SG&A $6,594 $7,536 $7,458 $10,032 $12,038 $12,038 Operating income $4,292 $902 $4,952 $6,646 $7,978 $7,978Interest expense $480 $652 $735 $937 $1,323 $1,565Other expenses -$39 -$27 -$35 $50 $50 $50EBT $3,773 $223 $4,182 $5,659 $6,604 $6,363Income taxes $1,509 $89 $1,673 $2,264 $2,642 $2,545Net income $2,264 $134 $2,509 $3,395 $3,963 $3,818 Master of Business Administration 5° Master Part Time - Week End 2010 MIP - Riproduzione riservata – Barbara Monda 4
  5. 5. 1. Stati patrimoniali prospettici ($000) Actual Forecast 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Cash $2,536 $2,218 $2,934 $3,960 $4,752 $4,752 Accounts receivable $10,988 $12,864 $14,671 $19,726 $23,671 $23,671 Inventories $9,592 $11,072 $11,509 $13,865 $16,638 $16,638 Prepaid expenses $309 $324 $357 $480 $576 $576 Total current assets $23,425 $26,478 $29,471 $38,031 $45,637 $45,637 Property, plant & equipment at cost $5,306 $6,116 $7,282 $8,182 $9,082 $9,982 Less: Accumulated depreciation $792 $1,174 $1,633 $2,179 $2,793 $3,474 Net property, plant & equipment $4,514 $4,942 $5,649 $6,003 $6,290 $6,508 Total assets $27,939 $31,420 $35,120 $44,034 $51,926 $52,145 Accounts payable $3,084 $4,268 $3,929 $4,799 $5,759 $5,759 Notes payable $6,620 $8,873 $10,132 $14,307 $16,915 $13,326 Accrued expenses $563 $591 $652 $876 $1,051 $1,051 Income taxes payable $151 $9 $167 $226 $264 $255 Other current liabilities $478 $502 $554 $744 $893 $893 Total current liabilities $10,896 $14,243 $15,434 $20,953 $24,883 $21,284 Master of Business Administration 5° Master Part Time - Week End 2010 MIP - Riproduzione riservata – Barbara Monda 5
  6. 6. 2. Costo del capitale (WACC) Calcolo di β con il metodo bottom-up, usando i dati delle tre società comparabili Micron Technology, SanDisk Corporation e STEC Flash Micron SanDisk STEC MEDIA 10-year T-bonds rate 3.70% Memory Technology Corp. ERP 6% β 1.25 1.25 1.36 1.00 1.20 D/(D+E) 18% share price - 9.4 39.8 13.9 E/(D+E) 82% nro shares 1,492.0 847.6 229.3 50.3 ke 11.2% E @mkt_va l ue 7925.1 9135.3 699.2 kd** 7.25% D/E @mkt_value* 22% 35% 11% 0% 15% WACC 10.0% BV per share 13.2 6.6 18.1 5.5 BV 19,694 5,603 4,157 276 ** Con l i nci denza del debi to a l 18%, Fl a s h ri entra nel l i mi te del 70% dei D+E @BV 29,840 8,362 5,132 276 credi ti commerci a l i D 10,146 2,760 975 - Capitalization @BV Debt 34% 33% 19% 0% Equity 66% 67% 81% 100% t 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% βu 1.1 1.10 *Flash Memory: D/(D+E)=18% è il valore target del management Master of Business Administration 5° Master Part Time - Week End 2010 MIP - Riproduzione riservata – Barbara Monda 6
  7. 7. 3. Investimento – calcolo NPV e IRR (1/2) Master of Business Administration 5° Master Part Time - Week End 2010 MIP - Riproduzione riservata – Barbara Monda 7
  8. 8. 3. Investimento – calcolo NPV e IRR (2/2) Master of Business Administration 5° Master Part Time - Week End 2010 MIP - Riproduzione riservata – Barbara Monda 8
  9. 9. 4. Modifiche nelle previsioni Incremental Financial Statement Account ($000s) Forecast 2010 2011 2012 Sales $21,600 $28,000 COGS $17,064 $22,120 R&D $0 $0 SG&A (includes launch) $2,106 $2,341 Increase in operating income $2,430 $3,539 Cash (3.3% of sales) $713 $924 Accounts receivable (60 DSO) $3,551 $4,603 Inventories (52 days of COGS) $2,431 $3,151 Prepaid expenses (0.4% of sales) $86 $112 Net property, plant & equipment $2,200 $1,760 $1,320 Accounts payable (60 days of purchases) $842 $1,091 Accrued expenses (0.73% of sales) $158 $204 Other current liabilities (0.62% of sales) $134 $174 Master of Business Administration 5° Master Part Time - Week End 2010 MIP - Riproduzione riservata – Barbara Monda 9
  10. 10. 4. Caso investimento, no emissione azioni C/EConti economici previsionali nell’ipotesi di accettazione dell’investimento e senza l’emissione di nuoveazioni (con i=9.25%) Actual Forecast 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Sales $77,131 $80,953 $89,250 $120,000 $165,600 $172,000 COGS $62,519 $68,382 $72,424 $97,322 $133,848 $138,904 Gross margin $14,612 $12,571 $16,826 $22,678 $31,752 $33,096 R&D $3,726 $4,133 $4,416 $6,000 $7,200 $7,200 SG&A $6,594 $7,536 $7,458 $10,032 $14,144 $14,379 Operating income $4,292 $902 $4,952 $6,646 $10,408 $11,517 Interest expense $480 $652 $735 $937 $1,527 $2,118 Other expenses -$39 -$27 -$35 $50 $50 $50 Income before income taxes $3,773 $223 $4,182 $5,659 $8,831 $9,349 Income taxes $1,509 $89 $1,673 $2,264 $3,532 $3,740 Net income $2,264 $134 $2,509 $3,395 $5,299 $5,609 Master of Business Administration 5° Master Part Time - Week End 2010 MIP - Riproduzione riservata – Barbara Monda 10
  11. 11. 4. Caso investimento, no emissione azioni S/PStati patrimoniali previsionali nell’ipotesi di accettazione dell’investimento e senza l’emissione di nuoveazioni Actual Forecast 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Cash $2,536 $2,218 $2,934 $3,960 $5,465 $5,676 Accounts receivable $10,988 $12,864 $14,671 $19,726 $27,222 $28,274 Inventories $9,592 $11,072 $11,509 $13,865 $19,069 $19,789 Prepaid expenses $309 $324 $357 $480 $662 $688 Total current assets $23,425 $26,478 $29,471 $38,031 $52,418 $54,427 Property, plant & equipment a $5,306 $6,116 $7,282 $19,726 $23,671 $23,671 Less: Accumulated depreciati $792 $1,174 $1,633 $13,865 $16,638 $16,638 Net property, plant & equipme $4,514 $4,942 $5,649 $8,203 $8,050 $7,828 Total assets $27,939 $31,420 $35,120 $46,234 $60,467 $62,255 Accounts payable $3,084 $4,268 $3,929 $4,799 $6,601 $6,850 Notes payable $6,620 $8,873 $10,132 $16,507 $22,898 $18,720 Accrued expenses $563 $591 $652 $876 $1,209 $1,256 Income taxes payable $151 $9 $167 $226 $353 $374 Other current liabilities $478 $502 $554 $744 $1,027 $1,066 Total current liabilities $10,896 $14,243 $15,434 $23,153 $32,087 $28,266 Master of Business Administration 5° Master Part Time - Week End 2010 MIP - Riproduzione riservata – Barbara Monda 11
  12. 12. 4. Caso investimento con emissione azioni C/EConti economici previsionali nell’ipotesi di accettazione dell’investimento e di emissione di nuove azioni Master of Business Administration 5° Master Part Time - Week End 2010 MIP - Riproduzione riservata – Barbara Monda 12
  13. 13. 4. Caso investimento con emissione azioni S/PStati patrimoniali previsionali nell’ipotesi di accettazione dell’investimento e di emissione di nuove azioni Master of Business Administration 5° Master Part Time - Week End 2010 MIP - Riproduzione riservata – Barbara Monda 13
  14. 14. 5. Conclusioni No Investment in New Product Line Sell No New Stock Borrow at 9.25% 2010 2011 2012 Earnings per share $2.28 $2.66 $2.56 Interest coverage ratio (times) 7.1 6.0 5.1 Return on equity 14.7% 14.7% 12.4% Notes payable / accounts receivable 72.5% 71.5% 56.3% Notes payable / shareholders equity 62.0% 62.5% 43.2% Total liabilities / shareholders equity 90.8% 92.0% 69.0% Notes payable (000s) $14,306 $16,914 $13,325 Invest in the New Product Line Invest in the New Product Line Sell No New Stock Sell 300,000 Shares of Common Stoc Borrow at 9.25% Borrow at 7.25% 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 Earnings per share $2.28 $3.55 $3.76 $1.96 $3.24 $3.47 Interest coverage ratio (times) 7.1 6.8 5.4 9.1 15.1 10.4 Return on equity 14.7% 18.7% 16.5% 11.7% 16.2% 14.8% Notes payable / accounts receivable 83.7% 84.1% 66.2% 48.0% 56.3% 37.3% Notes payable / shareholders equity 71.5% 80.7% 55.1% 31.5% 42.7% 25.0% Total liabilities / shareholders equity 100.3% 113.1% 83.2% 53.6% 68.4% 47.8% Notes payable (000s) $16,506 $22,897 $18,719 $9,476 $15,338 $10,550 Master of Business Administration 5° Master Part Time - Week End 2010 MIP - Riproduzione riservata – Barbara Monda 14

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