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Lakeshore Economic Analysis Project - The Full Story

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Lakeshore Economic Analysis Project (LEAP) - The Full Story, presented by: Dean Halverson, CEO, Leede Research Group unveils the results of the LEAP Survey.

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Lakeshore Economic Analysis Project - The Full Story

  1. 1. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 1 Lakeshore Economic Analysis Project Final Report May 2015
  2. 2. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 22 Online Study – 341 Completes Study Conducted: May 2015 Manitowoc County Employers Sponsored by Leede & ICB Methods  LEAP, the Lakeshore Economic Analysis Project is an effort to gather current and relevant economic data from employers in Manitowoc County.  Surveys distributed via emails through Progress Lakeshore, The Chamber and Investors Community Bank.  Study represents an overall error of + 5% at 95%
  3. 3. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 3 Our Local Economy is Strong and Growing!
  4. 4. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 444  The study reached a good cross section of area businesses. This information will be used in the more detailed analysis of the study as a whole. Q3. Which of the following best describes your organization’s primary business sector? 21% 3% 3% 6% 7% 12% 13% 13% 21% 0% 50% 100% Other Hotel or Tourism Restaurant or Food Service Government Retail Non-Profit Organization Personal or Business Services Financial or Insurance Manufacturing The most often mentioned Other Responses were: Healthcare – 11 responses Education – 8 responses Real Estate – 7 responses Construction – 6 responses
  5. 5. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 555  In reviewing future employment needs, we see 38% projecting increased employment with a mean of 14%. There are 6% projecting decline at a mean rate of 10%. This speaks of growth for the area but also for the need for qualified candidates in the workforce. Q4. In the next 12 months, do you anticipate your employment in Manitowoc County will? 1% 5% 56% 34% 4% 0% 50% 100% Decrease Significantly Decrease Slightly Remain the Same Increase Slightly Increase Significantly Q4a. If Increase: What percentage change in employment would you expect to see? Mean Score = 14% Q4b. If Decrease: What percentage change in employment would you expect to see? Mean Score = 10% Net Between Increase & Decrease is 32%!
  6. 6. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 666  It is positive to see that sales growth is more than double the decline rate in this question. It is also positive to see the percent of growth as a mean is stronger than the percent decline. Q6. Looking at your current sales in the past 6 months, how has that tracked against the same 6 month period one year ago? 2% 5% 12% 29% 28% 15% 10% 0% 50% 100% Decreased Significantly Decreased Moderately Decreased Slightly Remained the Same Increased Slightly Increased Moderately Increased Significantly Q6a. If Increase: What percentage change in sales did you see? Mean Score = 14% Q6b. If Decrease: What percentage change in sales did you see? Mean Score = 11% Net Between Increase & Decrease is 34%!
  7. 7. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 777  While respondents indicate both employment and sales growth in their businesses they are not as optimistic for the local economy overall. The overall response is slightly positive. Q7. How do you see the economy of Manitowoc County as a whole performing in the next 12 months? 5% 1% 4% 11% 36% 36% 7% 0% 50% 100% DK/NA Significant Decline Moderate Decline Slight Decline Remain Flat Slight Growth Good Growth Siginificant Growth Q7a. If Increase: What percentage change in the economy would you expect to see? Mean Score = 8% Q7b. If Decrease: What percentage change in the economy would you expect to see? Mean Score = 9% Net Between Growth & Decline is 27%!
  8. 8. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 888  There is a projection of modest growth in the next 12 months in the overall businesses. This is seen in both general percentage of response and net growth figures. Q8. How do you see your business as a whole performing in the next 12 months? 2% 1% 1% 4% 20% 46% 21% 5% 0% 50% 100% DK/NA Significant Decline Moderate Decline Slight Decline Remain Flat Slight Growth Good Growth Siginificant Growth Q8a. If Growth: What percentage change in the economy would you expect to see? Mean Score = 12% Q8b. If Decline: What percentage change in the economy would you expect to see? Mean Score = 10% Net Between Growth & Decline is 66%!
  9. 9. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 999  This question offered respondents a series of key issues and asked that they identify their top 5. We see that over half the businesses indicate that recruiting talent and healthcare costs were key issues. Government regulation and the economy were also significant. Q5. What would you consider the Top 5 issues facing your business? Yes Responses Talent Recruitment/Staffing 57% Healthcare Costs 55% Government Regulation 43% Economic Slowdown 43% Skilled Labor Shortage 39% Competition 37% Taxes 35% Industry Slowdown 24% Leadership Development 21% Technology/IT 18% Innovation 14% Environmental Issues 9% Security 8% Energy Issues 6% Globalization 6% Other 11%
  10. 10. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 101010 The following is additional information gained from detailed analysis of the data: • High level respondents in the Service and Retail industries, with largest organizations in Manufacturing • General Employment Growth was strongest in Manufacturing but the percentage growth was Service • Sales Growth was strongest from Financial Services and Manufacturing. This was also true for Growth of the Manitowoc County Economy and Growth of their Business. • Manufacturers had the strongest concerns overall for the issues tested in the study. • Respondents from the Service Industry were less likely to live in Manitowoc in 5 years than other groups. • Managers and Directors were more optimistic about growth than higher level respondents, though top leadership generally showed higher sales growth • It was positive to see that there were not significant differences by respondent level in their likelihood to live in Manitowoc in the next 5 years.
  11. 11. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 1111
  12. 12. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 121212  Employment in Manitowoc County has been variable. It peaked in 2008 before the economic downturn and showed general decline until it bottomed out in 2013. It is now starting to turn around with 2015 projections. The following is the recent history of our Manitowoc County workforce based on figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Year Employment 2005 33,850 2008 35,003 2013 32,401 2015 32,722 Every County bordering Manitowoc County has a lower unemployment rate than we do according to the Department of Workforce Development for August 2015
  13. 13. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 131313  This map from the Department of Workforce Development shows the projected population change from 2010 through 2040. Manitowoc County faces a fundamental challenge moving forward. Surrounding counties show growth rates as high as 31% moving forward while we are projecting a 3% decline. How will this impact the future workforce? What will happen as our employees retire? A strategic plan and effort is needed to address our current and future workforce needs moving forward
  14. 14. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 141414 The following are other items of interest from the profile: • 2000 to 2010 – 2.6% pop growth • 2010 to 2013 - 0.1% pop decline • Median Age - 44 years • Net Migration - (-0.2%) • 3,706 Manitowoc residents drive to Sheboygan to Work. 5,046 others • 1,365 Sheboygan residents drive to Manitowoc to Work. 2,660 come from other counties. • We have a net outward migration both in counts and in $$
  15. 15. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 151515 The following are Open Positions in the past 90 days: • Manitowoc 1,279 • Sheboygan 2,386 • Calumet 245 • Kewaunee 259 • Door 101 Source – Labor Insight Jobs (Burning Glass Technologies)
  16. 16. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 161616 Three Simple Questions: 1. Do you have unfilled positions in your business? 2. If Yes: How many? 3. What industry segment are you a part of? In September Leede Research, in cooperation with our partner organization completed an emergency assessment of the labor market in Manitowoc County. This was conducted through online interviews with members and contacts of the following:
  17. 17. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 171717 Sent out through online resources of the Chamber and Progress Lakeshore a total of 223 employers provided input. Data was reviewed for quality by Leede Research and some surveys were recoded for accuracy.
  18. 18. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 181818 The following are summary items of interest from the survey: • The total represents 815 unfilled positions in Manitowoc County from just those respondents • Simple extrapolation into the employer population indicates there are over 1500 positions unfilled • Indeed.com indicates 1,751 positions available in Manitowoc County. • Recent communications in the Sheboygan Press indicates 2,600 positions available in Sheboygan 58% of Employers Responding have Unfilled Positions
  19. 19. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 191919 Manufacturing shows the highest rate of unfilled positions. Retail shows the lowest
  20. 20. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 202020 Finding the Right Candidates and Work Ethics are seen as the biggest barriers to filling needed positions 3% 1% 4% 4% 5% 7% 8% 8% 20% 40% 0% 30% 60% Miscellaneous Competiting companies Part time work offered Low wages/wages offered Shift work/holidays or weekends Skill sets Finding applicants Lack of qualified applicants Finding candidates with work ethic/want to work Finding qualified candidates
  21. 21. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 2121
  22. 22. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 222222  An open-ended question was used to capture best features of living in the area. Lake Michigan was a dominant response along with the general environment offered in the area. Q1. What do you think is the best feature of living in Manitowoc County? The most often mentioned Open Responses were: Lake Michigan - 92 responses Small town atmosphere/community - 53 responses Safe - 34 responses Friendly/Good people - 34 responses High quality of life - 18 responses Amenities, parks, zoo, museum, festivals - 14 responses Low Cost of Living - 12 responses Good place to raise family - 11 responses Family & Friends Here - 10 responses Qualified workforce - 8 responses Beauty - 8 responses Location - 7 responses Quality schools/education - 5 responses Clean - 4 responses Access to I-43 - 4 responses
  23. 23. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 232323  Business growth and labor needs are the prime concern from area employers. There was a wide range of responses seen to this open-ended questions. Q2. As an employer, what one thing about Manitowoc County would you change? The most often mentioned Open Responses were: Attract more business/jobs/employers - 55 responses More skilled labor/training - 45 responses More restaurants/amenities - 19 responses Downtown issues - 19 responses Retain youth - 19 responses Nothing - 18 responses Conservative attitude - 16 responses Negative attitudes/Be more positive - 13 responses City Leaders/government issues - 12 responses Better education system - 7 responses Lower taxes - 7 responses Wage level - 7 responses More development/Growth - 6 responses More shopping - 3 responses Develop lakefront/river - 5 responses Better economy - 2 responses
  24. 24. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 242424  The study sought to identify what items of support could be provided to business through area organizations. We see while no specifics were offered, they seek to have organizations promote growth in the area as a whole. Q9. What could organizations in the community such as Progress Lakeshore (formerly the Economic Development Corporation) and the Chamber do to help your business or address area business issues? The most often mentioned Open Responses were: Nothing - 50 responses Attract more business/jobs/employers - 39 responses Promote/Advertise – 33 responses Continue programs/discussions - 18 responses More skilled labor/training - 16 responses Retain youth - 12 responses Shop Local Theme - 7 responses More development/Growth - 4 responses
  25. 25. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 252525  Respondents are not seeing specifics that other businesses could offer but do see the value on general growth and for programs and discussions. There is some need for loan resources indicated in the results. Q10. What could other businesses in the community such as banks, accounting firms, consultants or even local government do to help your business or address area business issues? The most often mentioned Open Responses were: Nothing - 70 responses Attract more business/jobs/employers - 13 responses Loans - 13 responses Promote/advertise - 11 responses Continue programs/discussions - 8 responses Funding - 7 responses Shop Local Theme - 6 responses
  26. 26. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 2626
  27. 27. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 272727  Respondents must have been Manitowoc County businesses. There was a strong mix of employer size and titles represented in the study. This offers a solid look at the current economic environment in the area. S1. Is your business located in Manitowoc County? Respondents must have a business within the county to complete the study S3. What is your title in your organization: 15% 2% 7% 15% 15% 46% 0% 50% 100% Other C-Level Vice President Manager Director Owner/President/CEO
  28. 28. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 282828  This slide shares the detail on employer size. The study reached a strong cross-section of the community with various size employers. This adds credibility to the study findings. S4. How many FTE’s (Full Time Equivalents) do you employ in Manitowoc County? 22% 18% 19% 9% 14% 18% 0% 50% 100% 100+ 31 to 100 11 to 30 6 to 10 2 to 5 1 Mean Score = 92 employees
  29. 29. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 292929  Demographics give us a look at the makeup of the leadership in the local business community. We see the respondents are older with a mix of education levels. Q11. What is your age? 7% 31% 36% 17% 8% 1% 0% 30% 60% 65+ 55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 Under 25 Q13. Which of the following best describes your education level? 1% 26% 11% 30% 7% 18% 7% 0% 50% 100% Ref/DK/NA Post Graduate Degree Post Grad Courses Bachelor Degree Technical College Degree Some College or Tech College High School Graduate Some High School
  30. 30. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 303030  Most respondents are married and their spouses are also working in the area. Those who are not are generally not seeking employment at this time. That could represent a potential labor pool for the future. Q12. Are you: 84% 16% 0% 50% 100% Married Single Q12a. If Married: Is your spouse currently employed? Yes = 76% No = 24% Q12b. If No: Are they actively seeking employment? Yes = 3% No = 97%
  31. 31. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 313131  Respondents have been in Manitowoc County a long time. We see that 88% of the respondents reside in the County. It is positive to see that respondents generally plan to be here in 5 years. There are 10% who indicate a below average response. Q14. How long have you lived in Manitowoc County? Mean Score = 31.5 years Q15. On a scale from 1 to 7, with 1 being Not at All Likely, to 7 being Extremely Likely, how likely is it that you will reside in Manitowoc County in 5 years? 3% 3% 4% 9% 9% 17% 56% 0% 50% 100% 1-Not at All Likely 2 3 4 5 6 7-Extremely Likely Mean Score = 5.9 Top Two Box Score = 73% Q15aa. Do you currently reside in Manitowoc County? Yes Responses = 88% No Responses = 12%
  32. 32. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 323232  Respondents are involved in the community with most being part of multiple organizations. This will be used in providing detailed information to the organizations to help in their future programming. 51% 50% 8% 27% 71% 0% 50% 100% Other Service Organization Other Business Organization WMC Progress Lakeshore Chamber Q15a. Please check any of the following organizations that you are a part of. – Yes Responses
  33. 33. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 333333 Q16. Do you have any additional comments you would like to pass along? The respondents mentioned many comments that could not be categorized and should be reviewed for their content. These may be found in the Open Responses section of the report.
  34. 34. LEAP Kickoff Study May 2015 34 We Appreciate the Continued Partnership

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