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Made in America, Again

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Key takeaways from BCG’s fourth annual survey of U.S.-based manufacturing executives.

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Made in America, Again

  1. 1. Do Not Reproduce More Than Two Slides or Charts Without Permission Made in America, Again Fourth Annual Survey of U.S.-Based Manufacturing Executives December 2015
  2. 2. 1 Do Not Reproduce More Than Two Slides or Charts Without Permission Executive summary Key takeaways from BCG’s fourth annual survey of U.S.-based manufacturing executives • 17% of respondents report actively reshoring production today – 2.5x the number that were actively reshoring in 2012 • More companies are moving from “consideration” to “action” • 31% of executives would put new capacity to serve the U.S. market in the U.S. versus 20% who would choose China • Significant reversal from two years ago, when China was favored by 30% to 26% • Companies that are reshoring most often cite core cost factors—shortening supply chains, reducing shipping costs— as biggest reasons • Access to a skilled workforce is also a key reason; 2.7x as many respondents cite increased skilled labor as a driver for moving production to the U.S. compared with those who cite it as a reason for offshoring from the U.S. • 56% believe that decreasing costs in automation have improved their product competitiveness • 71% believe that advanced manufacturing technologies will improve the economics of localized production • Executives who anticipate net job gains within the next five years outweigh those predicting declines by a 2-to-1 margin 1 2 3 4 5 Interest in reshoring production to the U.S. remains strong, and the percentage of companies actively moving operations back to the U.S. continues to increase The U.S. has surpassed China and is outpacing Mexico as the most likely destination for new manufacturing capacity to serve the U.S. market Key drivers of expanding manufacturing capacity in the U.S. include costs, access to a skilled workforce, and increased local control to drive quality and innovation Investment in automation and other advanced manufacturing is seen as an opportunity to further drive efficiency and U.S. competitiveness Prospects for job creation remain strong
  3. 3. 2 Do Not Reproduce More Than Two Slides or Charts Without Permission Interest in reshoring production to the U.S. from China remains strong, with a move from ‘consideration’ to ‘action ’ Sources: BCG Manufacturing Survey, February 2012, August 2013, August 2014, and September 2015 Note: Numbers in the bar charts have been rounded; percentage changes outside the bar charts are based on the actual numbers before rounding. Question asked: “Given the fact that China’s wage costs are expected to grow, do you expect your company will move manufacturing to the United States?” Question asked only of companies that currently manufacture in China. N = 132. 7 13 173 8 7 8 17 15 18 17 15 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 20152013 54 Yes, we will move production to the U.S. in the next two years Yes, we are actively considering doing this, although we have not made a final decision Yes, we will consider doing this in the near future 53 Yes, we are already actively doing this Respondents (%) 37 2012 1
  4. 4. 3 Do Not Reproduce More Than Two Slides or Charts Without Permission The trend of year-over-year increases in companies actively reshoring has continued 17 13 7 0 5 10 15 20 Respondents (%) 2013 +31% 2012 2015 Yes, we are already actively doing this +88% 1 Sources: BCG Manufacturing Survey, February 2012, August 2013, August 2014, and September 2015 Note: Numbers in the bar charts have been rounded; percentage changes outside the bar charts are based on the actual numbers before rounding. Question asked: “Given the fact that China’s wage costs are expected to grow, do you expect your company will move manufacturing to the United States?” Question asked only of companies that currently manufacture in China. N = 132.
  5. 5. 4 Do Not Reproduce More Than Two Slides or Charts Without Permission The U.S. has surpassed China and is outpacing Mexico as the most likely destination for new manufacturing capacity Sources: BCG Manufacturing Survey, February 2012, August 2013, August 2014, and September 2015 Note: Numbers atop the bar charts have been rounded; percentage changes outside the bar charts are based on the actual numbers before rounding. Question asked: “In the next five years, how will the supply chain change for the products you intend to sell inside the U.S.?” All other destination countries accounted for 18% of responses in 2013, 26% of responses in 2014, and 20% of responses in 2015. 2 30 26 20 31 0 10 20 30 40 –10 +5 ChinaUnited States 20152013 2626 29 31 0 10 20 30 40 +3 +5 MexicoUnited States Most likely destination for new manufacturing capacity to serve the U.S. market Respondents (%)
  6. 6. 5 Do Not Reproduce More Than Two Slides or Charts Without Permission Companies that have reshored cite increased regional- ization, strong workforce and environment, and local control 76 70 64 57 66 63 55 52 14 18 22 23 16 19 25 30 10 13 15 20 18 18 20 18 0 20 40 60 80 100 Shorten our supply chain Accelerate innovation and product development Be closer to customers Reduce shipping costs Respondents (%) Improve quality and yield Provide local control over manufacturing processes Make it easier to do business Access the skilled workforce and talent Primary reasons for moving to U.S. Source: BCG Manufacturing Survey, September 2015 Note: Question asked: “Why did your company move production to the U.S. from another country? Please select how much you agree or disagree with each of the following reasons for change.” 3 Strongly or somewhat disagreeStrongly or somewhat agree Neutral Strong workforce and business environment Control over process, quality, and innovation Benefits of increased regionalization
  7. 7. 6 Do Not Reproduce More Than Two Slides or Charts Without Permission Manufacturers are 2.7x more likely to move production to the U.S. than from the U.S. to access skilled labor 3 Source: BCG Manufacturing Survey, September 2015 Note: Chart counts respondents who marked “Strongly or somewhat agree.” Numbers atop the bar charts have been rounded; percentage changes outside the bar charts are based on the actual numbers before rounding. 1Question asked: “Why did your company move production to another country from the U.S.? Please select how much you agree or disagree with each of the following reasons for change.” 2Question asked: “Why did your company move production to the U.S. from another country? Please select how much you agree or disagree with each of the following reasons for change.” 57 21 0 20 40 60 80 Production moved from the U.S.1 2.7x Production moved to the U.S.2 Respondents (%) citing access to the skilled workforce and talent as a strong factor for moving production Responses are consistent with the 2014 survey, in which 74% of respondents reported moving production to the U.S. to access skilled labor
  8. 8. 7 Do Not Reproduce More Than Two Slides or Charts Without Permission Executives plan to invest in automation or other advanced manufacturing to enhance product competitiveness 56 71 75 31 23 16 13 6 10 0 20 40 60 80 100 Respondents (%) Strongly or somewhat disagreeNeutralStrongly or somewhat agree Decreasing automation cost improved my product competitiveness against products sourced from low-cost countries Manufacturing executives believe automation and advanced manufacturing will promote the following: • Reduce costs and increase their competitiveness • Allow them to benefit from being closer to suppliers and customers • Increase demand for highly skilled workers Source: BCG Manufacturing Survey, September 2015 Note: Task stated: “Please select how much you agree or disagree with each of the following reasons for change.” N = 252. 4 Advanced manufacturing will improve the economics of localized production The U.S. is strongly positioned to benefit from manufacturers that seek to increase regionalization, especially as automation costs decline We will invest in additional automation or advanced manufacturing technologies in the next five years
  9. 9. 8 Do Not Reproduce More Than Two Slides or Charts Without Permission Twice as many executives expect trends to drive net growth in U.S. manufacturing jobs within five years Source: BCG Manufacturing Survey, September 2015 Note: Question asked: “Based on current trends, what do you expect to happen to the number of manufacturing jobs in your company over the next five years?” 1Includes responses of less than +/-1% per year. 5 8% 19% 23% 26% 6% 3% 16% 30 20 10 0 Respondents (%) Increase by >20% Increase by 10%-20% Increase by 5%-9% FlatDecrease by 5%-9% Decrease by 10%-20% Decrease by >20% Job loss 50% of respondents anticipate net job creation 25% of respondents anticipate net job losses 1 Job creation Anticipated job creation outweighs loss by a 2-to-1 margin Anticipated job creation is still strong but slightly lower than last year’s 3:1 ratio of net job creation to net job loss, due in part to global macro uncertainty (e.g., fx, growth)
  10. 10. 9 Do Not Reproduce More Than Two Slides or Charts Without Permission Survey methodology Since 2012, The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) has conducted an annual online survey of senior- level, U.S.-based manufacturing executives. This year’s survey, conducted in September, elicited 263 responses. The responses were limited to one per company. Virtually all of the respondents work for companies that manufacture in the U.S. and overseas and make products for both U.S. and non-U.S. consumption. Respondents are decision makers in companies with more than $1 billion in annual revenues, across a wide range of industries, including: • Electronic and other electrical equipment and components, except computer • Transportation equipment • Industry and commercial machinery • Fabricated metal products, except machinery and transport • Chemicals • Rubber and plastics products • Primary metal industries • Food products • Computer equipment • Petroleum refining and related industries • Apparel and other finished products made from fabrics and similar material • Lumber and wood products, except furniture • Printed products • Stone, clay, glass, and concrete products • Furniture and fixtures • Paper and allied products • Textile mill products • Leather and leather products • Tobacco products
  11. 11. 10 Do Not Reproduce More Than Two Slides or Charts Without Permission This research is part of BCG’s ongoing series on the shifting dynamics of global manufacturing Authors of this research Harold L. Sirkin Senior Partner and coauthor of The U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance: How Shifting Global Economics Are Creating an American Comeback (Knowledge@Wharton, November 2012) BCG Chicago Michael Zinser Senior Partner, coleader of the global Manufacturing practice, and coauthor of The U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance: How Shifting Global Economics Are Creating an American Comeback BCG Chicago Justin Rose Partner, leader of Industrial Goods Operations team in the Americas, and coauthor of The U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance: How Shifting Global Economics Are Creating an American Comeback BCG Chicago Selected publications and research in the series Despite a Strong Dollar, the U.S. Retains a Big Manufacturing Cost Advantage over Europe, Japan, and Other Developed Countries (press release) An analysis by The Boston Consulting Group, July 2015 How a Takeoff in Advanced Robotics Will Power the Next Productivity Surge (press release) An analysis by The Boston Consulting Group, February 2015 The Shifting Economics of Global Manufacturing: How Cost Competitiveness Is Changing Worldwide A report by The Boston Consulting Group, August 2014 The U.S. Skills Gap: Could It Threaten a Manufacturing Renaissance? A report by The Boston Consulting Group, August 2013 Behind the American Export Surge: The U.S. as One of the Developed World’s Lowest-Cost Manufacturers A report by The Boston Consulting Group, August 2013 U.S. Manufacturing Nears the Tipping Point: Which Industries, Why, and How Much? A report by The Boston Consulting Group, March 2012 Made in America, Again: Why Manufacturing Will Return to the U.S. A report by The Boston Consulting Group, August 2011 Note: Most publications are available on BCG’s thought leadership portal, www.bcgperspectives.com, or at www.bcg.com. To request a media interview, please contact Eric Gregoire at gregoire.eric@bcg.com. To discuss the findings with a BCG expert, please contact Payal Sheth at sheth.payal@bcg.com. To read other publications in this series, please go to www.bcgperspectives.com.

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