Presentation given at LIR / HEAnet Annual Seminar "Ebooks – Caressing the Divine Details", Dublin 25th March, 2011 Title "eBooks and eReaders - tipping points, is 26 the magic number and predicting the future" Terry O'Brien, Deputy Librarian, WIT Libraries

1. eBooksand eReaders:tipping points, is 26 the magic number and predicting the future

2. Introduction Wider picture Some trends, forecasts and interesting figures Consumer market – expectations, changes Blurring of lines between libraries eBook, eReader – “Tipping points” Digital content surge

3. Context – retail (impending) closures and mass library closures in UK and cuts in US

4. “Without a doubt, the eBook is practically the biggest thing that’s hit the publishing industry since the invention of movable type”(Philip Ruppel, CEO McGraw-Hill, 2011)

5. “books are slipping behind an electronic curtain, becoming iBook apps or drab, Kindled, digital versions of what (Charles) Lamb once called “biblia a-biblia” – books which are not books, (but) mere tangible shadows of their old visceral selves” Klinkenborg, V. (2010), “Book lover’s London”, Travel and Leisure, April p. 48

7. Information Behaviour of the Researcher of the Future (CIBER, UCL)

8. Low uptake of eBooks Too few e-books High pricing and complex pricing models Bundling solutions did not meet needs Complex licensing issues, DRM Multiple formats and platforms Uncertain market Lack of key e-texts Discoverability - poor marketing by libraries These constraints are diminishing eReader is a game changer “paradigm shifting device”

9. Adoption, usage and discoverability Significant growth in eBook adoption by libraries in next couple of years eBooks, eReaders are mainstream but not yet ubiquitous The consumer market will exacerbate expectations in the academic library sector Importance of high quality metadata (JISC, 2010) MARC records drive usage – Springer white paper UCL study showed that catalogued books are twice as likely to be used

10. Demand drivers

11. Horizon Reports 2010, 2011 Dramatic upswing Move to eBooks is compelling “transformative technology” 2010 constraints for academic libraries disappearing Colour screens and display technologies vastly improved 2011 eBooks now on “near term horizon” “changing our perception of what it means to read ..new kinds of reading experiences” “until electronic textbooks are divorced from reader dependant formats, broad adoption will continue to be problematic for universities”

12. Seminal Newsweek article 2007 “Device that will change the way readers read, writers write and publishers publish” Last bastion of analogue Long-form reading going digital Bezos (2011) sales of eBook and Kindle have reached a “tipping point” Tipping point

13. Amazon & Kindle More than half of the “best-selling” e-books on the Kindle are available at no charge, many are free, many cost $0.99 and many are erotica Neither Kindle nor iPad will let you read borrowed eBooks i.e. library books cannot be downloaded onto the Kindle Kindle 3 is best selling product in Amazon history – estimated 8m sold 2011 Kindle versions outselling hardbacks by 3 to 1 Kindle versions now outselling paperbacks Kindle 3 costs about £111 now – 1/3 of original Kindle cost Tipping point

14. Some more figures

15. Other sales trends II Publishers at Digital Book World Conference predict 2014 will be year when eBooks reach parity with print for the first time According to Amazon customers buy 3.3 times as many books after buying a Kindle eBook sales up 176% in 2009 say American Association of Publishers Men read more eBooks than women Goldman Sachs estimate that 13% of all book sales will be eBook format by 2015, representing over £3 billion Amazon share of overall eBook cake will fall by 50% over next 5 years as Google and Apple eat into market. Market share currently estimated at around 80% Tipping point

18. Mass digitization

19. “meeting customer at point of web search not at point of searching the bookstore”

20. Located in The Cloud, gives publishers huge reach

21. With over 3m free titles may have a major impact on eBooks access

22. Practically all formats and platforms accommodated –not Kindle (AZW) but open to discussion

24. Big players

25. How eBooks are used and who is using them Undergraduates and academic staff Appeals to digital consumers and students who prefer bite size chunks of information (CIBER) Men greater users, business students more likely to use (JISC, 2009) ‘support learning activities in certain subjects where information is structured in relatively discrete blocks and where a premium is placed on currency’ e.g. business, law, computer science (UCG, eBook seminar, May 2010) eBooks are not read sequentially “dipping” for ‘use’ (specific) more than ‘read’ (cover to cover)

26. What we know about user behaviours Academic mainstream Age and gender important predictors of uptake Importance of library catalogue Convenience factor Confusion about formats High quality metadata very important for discovery Log analysis shows power browsing, quick usage Skimming is endemic Print circulations have not really decreased

27. Student response “Kindles yet to woo university users” – Princeton “Why aren’t eBooks gaining more ground in academic libraries” (Slater, JWebLib, 2010) Abdullah & Gibb (2008) familiarity high, but 57% did not know library had eBooks eBrary not knowing how or where to find big factor in lack of usage ITHAKA S+R survey (2010) eBooks only an important research tool for 13% of 3,000 respondents Berget at al (JAL, 2010) “more research needed to better understand users interactions”, “students understand conventions of print books but unclear about structure and functionality of eBooks” (e.g. index) “students still refer print when it comes to using, reading, absorbing” (Roy, 2009) students prefer many of the low tech elements of print and paper CengageEduventures survey (2010) students not warming to eBooks

28. To consider ... In academic libraries, computers remain primary tool for downloading, storing, retrieving eReaders represent what students in future will expect - portability, cost-effective, access at any point in time, flexible not static content The eReader consumer market (leisure, recreation etc.) has exacerbated user expectations but requirements of academic libraries and their users is different (i.e. research and study purposes) to the commercial market

29. HarperCollins – placing limits on usage eBooks can only be loaned out 26 times Self-destruct Impacts on suppliers and eBook vendors like Overdrive Macmillan and Simon & Schuster—do not allow eBooks to be circulated in libraries at all DRM & Licence restrictions 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26

30. DRM "selling e-books to libraries in perpetuity, if left unchanged, would undermine the emerging e-book eco-system, hurt the growing e-book channel, place additional pressure on physical bookstores, and in the end lead to a decrease in book sales and royalties paid to authors “ (HarperCollins in response, 2011)

31. DRM - The commercial perspective Publishers Association – “if libraries had the ability to lend eBooks freely .. It would have serious consequences for the commercial world” - buying an eBook means buying a license to view a file According to Schuster and Macmillan if too easy to Borrow – turns eBook buyers into eBook borrowers Amazon (US) allows limited ‘loan’ by owner (purchaser) ‘Kindlegate’ –– hidden aspects of DRM - Amazon retain control of your copy after purchase SpringerBook – no DRM, allow ILLs, no restrictions on usage, full ownership

32. Digital Rights Management Remains major issue and barrier across all library types What does ownership mean, concept changing for libraries Perpetuity, platform fees, subscription fees If library ceases paying a platform fee do they lose rights of access License versus ownership – danger of putting publishers in charge of preservation American Library Association task force 2011 In the bustle for market share and ‘ownership’, libraries are being squeezed

33. Other developments Sharing electronic books - Kindle lending club, LendMe for the Nook, Booklends eBookFling– virtual eBook swap website – Netflix style book rental service eBook lending for libraries Internet Archive Open Library project, exclusive in library lending among virtual consortium 150 libraries www.openlibrary.org. Project MUSE and University Press e-book Consortium launching service in 2012 to make eBooks from 60-70 university presses available

34. EU involvement “Agency model” publishers accused of price-fixing in selling of eBooks - retailer not allowed to set the price According to EU could potentially "violate EU anti-trust rules that prohibit cartels and other restrictive business practices“ Publishers want to deal with Apple Amazon unsurprisingly against this model – setting own prices ($9.99) Important because eBooks are sold across borders

35. What might all this mean for libraries “the strange case of academic libraries and eBooks nobody reads … large and very expensive collections that nobody reads …not only unread but many in format already obsolete .. Enormous collections that can only (primarily) be read on computer screens” Can libraries embrace the platform for the content (we don’t have the control) – can Kindles or iPads work seamlessly with existing eBook collections Quandary for libraries “proprietary eBook files that only work on limited devices, or non-proprietary file formats supported by a number of eReaders” (Dan D’Agostino teleread.com, 2010)

36. Libraries Can content from Academic eBook providers be easily downloaded to portable devices Need to address traditional library-publisher relationships Willingness to embrace but frustration at exclusion from decisions (Library Journal, 2010) “the resource sharing that we have enjoyed in the world of analogue books is very much in question” (Roy, 2009) There are also implications for information literacy Collection development fragmentation and usage uncertainty

37. Forrester Research 2011 A very altered publishing world is about to emerge “the next five years will see an explosion of the eReader textbook market, and in 10 years, the market will be driven by businesses going green in government, education, health, and other sectors” Device convergence could shorten eReaders' lifespan Paper books as niche product? Wired “The overall e-book market is still a 90-pound weakling next to the Asiatic elephant of print publishing”

38. eBook trends that will change publishing? Philip Ruppel, President McGraw-Hill Professional Publishing (2011) Enhanced eBooks coming and will only get better The device war is nearly over – nobody wants to own the next betamax for books The $9.99 eBook won’t last forever Publishers will remain important despite self-publishing “Contextual upsell” will be a business model to watch Michael Hyatt, CEO, Thomas Nelson Publishers (2011) Bundled books Social reading eBook clubs e-first publishing Free e-readers – incentivisation Monetization experiments – in book advertising, sponsored links etc.

39. Some possibilities – where do we fit in

41. References “10 Reading Revolutions before eBooks”, Tim Carmody, The Atlantic, Aug 25, 2010 http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2010/08/10-reading-revolutions-before-e-books/62004/ Klinkenborg, V. (2010), “Literary Guide to London”, Travel and Leisure, April p. 48 “Information behaviour of the researcher of the future” (2008) - A CIBER briefing paper (University College London) http://www.jisc.ac.uk/media/documents/programmes/reppres/gg_final_keynote_11012008.pdf “The Digital Information Seeker Report of findings from selected OCLC,RIN and JISC user behaviour projects”, (2010) L. Connaway et al http://www.jisc.ac.uk/media/documents/publications/reports/2010/digitalinformationseekerreport.pdf The Horizon Report 2010 Edition (The New Media Consortium and the EDUCAUSE Learning Initiative) http://www.nmc.org/pdf/2010-Horizon-Report.pdf SuperBook Project University College London (2008)

42. References II The Horizon Report 2011 Edition (The New Media Consortium and the EDUCAUSE Learning Initiative) http://wp.nmc.org/horizon2011/ “The future of reading” Steven Levy, Newsweek, Nov. 17, 2007 HighWire Press 2009 Librarian eBook Survey Association of American Publishers http://www.publishers.org Digital Book World 2011 http://www.digitalbookworld.com Springer White paper on eBooks www.springer.com/ebooks The Shallows, what the internet is doing to our brains - Nicholas Carr, (Norton, 2010) Slater, R (2011) “Why Aren’t E-Books Gaining More Ground in Academic Libraries? E-Book Use and Perceptions A Review of Published Literature and Research“, Journal of web librarianship (1932-2909), 4 (4), p. 305 “Is Google making us stupid? What the internet is doing to our brains”, N. Carr, The Atlantic, July/Aug, 2008 “Amazon sells more kindle eBooks than hardcovers”, 20th July, 2010 WIRED magazine

43. References III Abdullah, N. & Gibb, F. (2008) “Students' attitudes towards e-books in a Scottish higher education institute: part 1”, Library Review, vol. 57, no. 8, pgs. 593-605 Kindles yet to woo university users, Daily Princetonian, Sept 2009 Ebrary‘s global eBook survey Ithaka S+R Library Survey 2010 http://www.ithaka.org/ithaka-s-r/research/ithaka-s-r-library-survey-2010 Instructors and students: technology use, engagement and learning outcomes (2010) CENGAGE and Eduventures eBookflinghttp://www.eBookfling.com BookSwimhttp://www.bookswim.com Open Library http://www.openlibrary.org Internet Archive http://www.archive.org Netflix https://www.netflix.com/ The strange case of academic libraries and e-books nobody reads [accessed online 25/8/10] Dan D’Agostini teleread.com , Jan 72010 Forrester Research http://www.forrester.com

44. References IV Roy, M. (2009), “The dream of a single library”, available at: http://blogs.middlebury.edu/mikeroy/2009/06/04/the-dream–a-single-library/ [accessed online 6 September 2010] Medeiros, N. (2009) “The Killer Kindle”, OCLC Systems & Services, Vol. 25, No. 4, pps. 225-227 Library Journal 1st Oct. 2010 “E-readers as a marketing tool for the digital library 2009-2010” Norwegian University of Science and Technology “Publishers Struggle to Get Professors to Use Latest E-Textbook Features” The Chronicle of Higher Education , (Wired Campus, Ben Wieder) Feb. 10, 2011 “5 E-Book trends that will change the future of publishing”, Philip Ruppel, McGraw-Hill Publishing [accessed online 23rd Feb. 2010] “6 E-Book trends to watch in 2011”, Michael Hyatt, CEO Thomas Nelson Publishers [accessed online 23rd Feb. 2010] Abdullah, N. & Gibb, F. (2006) A survey of e-book awareness and usage amongst students in an academic library. In: Proceedings of International Conference of Multidisciplinary Information Sciences and Technologies, Merida, 25-28 October, 2006, Spain.

45. Thanks for your attention Terry O’Brien, Deputy Librarian, WIT Libraries. Contact me at tpobrien@wit.ie 00353 51 302845 Visit WIT Libraries at www.wit.ie/library Follow us at #witlibraries