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The future is a foreign country


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Success in the development and adoption of 'infotronic' technologies is critical to the future of Australia's economic competitiveness and our standard of living. In this Wednesday Lowy Lunch presentation, Telstra CTO, Dr Hugh Bradlow, examines how ICT technologies will change over the next 10 years and the impact these changes are likely to have on human behaviour and economic outcomes. Dr Bradlow also addresses Australia's competitive position in this new world.

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The future is a foreign country

  1. The future is a foreign country*<br />Hugh Bradlow, Chief Technology Officer, Telstra Corporation<br />* With apologies to L.P. Hartley<br />1<br />
  2. 2<br />Outline<br />What does technology progress look like?<br />What drives technology progress?<br />How can technology progress change society?<br />How is Australia placed in the global technology race?<br />
  3. What does technology progress look like?<br />3<br />
  4. 4<br />Mobile<br />
  5. 5<br />Realistic: Electronic Wallpaper<br />
  6. 6<br />Realistic: 3D and Holography<br />
  7. 7<br />Picture from the Australian Financial Review, 31 Dec 1998<br />Realistic: Wearable displays<br />
  8. 8<br />Entertainment on demand<br />
  9. 9<br />Information on demand<br />
  10. 10<br />Processing on demand<br />Backplane Bus<br />CPU<br />Memory<br />I/O<br />Cloud Computing<br />
  11. 11<br />Sensing the environment<br />Homes<br />Ecosystems<br />Individuals<br />Air quality<br />Google Power Meter<br />Wireless band-aid<br />Security systems<br />Fall detector<br />Water quality<br />
  12. 12<br />Sensing you: (Context-based computing)<br />
  13. What drives technology progress?<br />13<br />
  14. 14<br />Computing power<br />Moore’s Law: The number of transistors that can be placed on an integrated circuit has doubled approximately every two years<br />
  15. 15<br />Telecommunications requirements<br />Triple PlaySDTV<br />Triple PlayHDTV<br /> Ultra HD & 3D TV<br />Gaming<br />Web Surfing<br />AccessSpeeds<br />1.5 Mbps <br />12 Mbps <br />26 Mbps <br />100 Mbps <br />256kbps <br />64kbps <br />
  16. 16<br />Telecommunications Power<br />?<br />NG PON2 40G<br />NG PON1 10G<br />?<br />GPON 2.5G<br />LTE –Advanced<br />BPON 620M<br />LTE 300 M<br />DOCSIS 3 150M<br />LTE 150 M<br />HSPA 84 M<br />HSPA 42 M<br />ADSL2+ 24M<br />HSPA 21 M<br />BandwidthHSPA: 5,10 MHz<br />LTE: 20 MHz<br />LTE- A: 100 MHz<br />HSDPA 14M<br />ADSL1 8M<br />Assumptions: Top of line commercial broadband services deployed, low network load and burst speeds. Typical customer speeds will be less<br />Sources: Telstra services and future estimates. Future wireless access estimates based on 3GPP standards<br />
  17. Technology’s impact on society<br />17<br />
  18. Slide 18<br />Ultra-broadband = A fundamental shift in the economy <br />
  19. 19<br />Business productivity: cloud services<br />Infrastructure<br />Software<br />Scale quickly & efficiently<br />Traditional<br />Avoid Waste<br />Capacity<br />Variabilise cost<br />Cloud Computing<br />Access data and people from anywhere<br />Time<br />Less reliance on scarce skills<br />Leverage high computing power<br />Best of breed applications<br />© 2010 Telstra Corporation Limited. All rights reserved<br />
  20. Smart infrastructure<br />Sensors, Computers and<br />Communications Devices<br />Magnetic Nails<br />20<br />
  21. 21<br />Reduced pressure on infrastructure<br />
  22. 22<br />Transformed Healthcare<br />City hospital<br />Clinic, Pharmacy, Remote Hospital<br />
  23. 23<br />Empowering Individuals with Connected Devices<br />Wireless transfer to hosted portal <br />Parameter transfer via Bluetooth<br />Next G Mobile Phone<br />Medical portal<br />Glucose meter<br />
  24. 24<br />Managing energy consumption<br />
  25. 25<br />Managing energy consumption<br />
  26. 26<br />Managing energy consumption<br />
  27. Australia’s position in the global information economy<br />27<br />
  28. 28<br />Engineers are the lifeblood of a technological society<br />Roughly the same as USA, but about 57% of Israel<br />*Figures for 2007-2009<br />
  29. 29<br />Engineers are the lifeblood of a technological society<br />China graduates every year almost 3 times the total number of engineers in Australia<br />*Figures for 2007-2009<br />Australia more than double USA, and almost the same as Israel – however, this includes 41% overseas students<br />
  30. 30<br />Entrepreneurism<br />*Economist Intelligence Unit white paper, “Innovation: Transforming the way business creates”, May 2007<br />
  31. 31<br />Technology adoption<br />
  32. 32<br />1984 (George Orwell’s book, not the year!)<br />LTE<br />TD-SCDMA<br />3GSM<br />CDMA<br />
  33. 33<br />862 MHz<br />470 MHz<br />890 MHz<br />790 MHz<br />Digital Dividend<br />Europe<br />470 MHz<br />890 MHz<br />806 MHz<br />698 MHz<br />Reserved<br />USChina, KoreaIndia, Japan, NZ, others<br />Reassigned for Mobile (1980s)<br />Digital Dividend<br />Country specific extra assignment<br />694 MHz<br />520 MHz<br />820 MHz<br />Region 3 (Asia and A/P)<br />Australian Proposal<br />Australia as Market Shaper in Unified LTE world<br />Regional Digital Dividends<br />
  34. Getting to know our customers<br />