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J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council 30.3.2016
Innovaatiolla ilmastonmuutosta vastaan
1. Climate Leadership Council
2. The status of the climate change
3. Paris agreement and next phases
4. Innovation needs a...
Members:
Market cap > 46% of Helsinki Stock Exchange Gross sales > 90 billion euros
Climate Leadership Council
Vision 2030
Forerunner companies are leading other
companies and organisations with their examp...
1. Climate Leadership Council
2. The status of the climate change
3. Paris agreement and next phases
4. Innovation needs a...
All Figures © IPCC 2013Without more mitigation, global mean surface temperature
might increase by 3.7° to 4.8°C over the 2...
J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
The status of the
climate change
J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
The year 2014 was the warmest
ever recorded by huma...
Wide systemic
impact
Climate change is the biggest and most systemic risk
Source: World Economic Forum, Global Risks 20162...
Zimbabwe has suffered $1.6 billion in damage from its
2016 drought. This is approximately 12% of their GDP.
(Image credit:...
J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
Source: IPCC J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
BIOVERSITY PROBLEMS
J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
Source: IPCC
The graph charts the maximum
speed that different s...
Carbon Tracker;
<”60$/barrel oil” is
burnable
14
Increasing amount of investors are divesting fossil fuels or actively imp...
Valuations illustrate the end game
of fossil energy has begun
J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
“It is not a coincidence that immediately prior to the
civil war in Syria, the count...
1. Climate Leadership Council
2. The status of the climate change
3. Paris agreement and next phases
4. Innovation needs a...
TEMPERATURE AND LONG-TERM GOAL
- Capping global temperature increases since pre-industrial times to 1,5-2C degrees.
- Mean...
J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
In INDC or current emission scenarios a >50% chance of keeping
+2C target is lost 25-28 years
World Energy Outlook 2015, D...
Due to the long time horizon of the investments, 1,5 or well below 2C
targets should be set ASAP
40 years - 40% reductions...
1. Climate Leadership Council
2. The status of the climate change
3. Paris agreement and next phases
4. Innovation needs a...
Renewables
J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
Futurist Ray Kurzweil:
solar power has been
doubling every two
years for ...
Energy efficiency
J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
World Energy Investment Outlook, Special Report. IEA
2014.
Storages
J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
25
Carbon sinks
J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
Carbon is the backbone of life on Earth.
We are made of carbon, we eat ...
Forests as carbon sinks and as
producers of value adding materials
J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
Biofuels
Annually this means ~$1.100 billion. In 2010–2015 the investment level has been $300–350
billion. Big majority of the fund...
Attracting capital to clean solutions
J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
Use carbon price
Wang Yining, China Associatio...
Electrification of ”everything”
J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
Liu Zhenya, Chairman, State Grid, China. Photos by J...
CURRENT FINNISH STRENGTHS AND FUTURE GLOBAL MARKETS
ANNUAL GLOBAL MARKET SIZE US$ BILLION
GROWTH BY 2050
Mitigation
1. Renewables
2. Energy efficiency
3. Storage
4. Carbon sinks
5. Upsoar investments
6. Electrification of ”ever...
33J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
Thank You!
“We’re the first generation to feel the impact of climate
change and th...
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Millennium treffit - Innovaatioilla ilmastomuutosta vastaan

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Millennium-treffit 30.3.2016: Innovaatioilla ilmastonmuutosta vastaan. Alustajana Jouni Keronen, Climate Leadership Council.
With innovations against the climate change.

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Millennium treffit - Innovaatioilla ilmastomuutosta vastaan

  1. 1. J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council 30.3.2016 Innovaatiolla ilmastonmuutosta vastaan
  2. 2. 1. Climate Leadership Council 2. The status of the climate change 3. Paris agreement and next phases 4. Innovation needs and opportunities Contents J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
  3. 3. Members: Market cap > 46% of Helsinki Stock Exchange Gross sales > 90 billion euros
  4. 4. Climate Leadership Council Vision 2030 Forerunner companies are leading other companies and organisations with their example to move towards operations that lead to carbon- neutrality and sustainable use of natural resources, both in Finland and abroad. They have succeeded in creating competitive solutions to global environmental challenges. Strategy The members of CLC are systematically developing their operations and actions, and thereby encouraging other organisations, communities and decision-makers to join. CLC is also collecting best practices and sharing information. Board 2015-2016 Pertti Korhonen, Chairman (Outotec Oyj) Mikko Kosonen, Vice-Chairman (Sitra) Henrik Ehrnrooth (Caverion Corporation) Taavi Heikkilä (S-Group) Antti Herlin (KONE Oyj) Pekka Lundmark (Fortum Oyj) Timo Ritakallio (Ilmarinen) Theme areas • Carbon price: Developing global carbon pricing mechanisms • Investors: Developing climate and carbon risk analysis and management methods • Carbon footprint and handprint: Reducing organizations’ carbon foot print • Transport and mobility: Developing low-carbon strategies and solutions • Construction and living: Developing low-carbon strategies and solutions • Renewable energy systems: Developing renewable energy, energy storage and demand-side management solutions New theme areas can be established based on proposals from members. Projects Each year, CLC selects a few significant projects to develop and promote. Currently, these include: • Development of building blocks for a low-carbon roadmap for companies • Development of the Helsinki metropolitan area into a Smart & Clean reference area • Support for the World Bank’s Carbon Price initiative • Development and piloting of analysis methods for climate and carbon risk • Collaboration with relevant national and international partners
  5. 5. 1. Climate Leadership Council 2. The status of the climate change 3. Paris agreement and next phases 4. Innovation needs and opportunities Contents J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
  6. 6. All Figures © IPCC 2013Without more mitigation, global mean surface temperature might increase by 3.7° to 4.8°C over the 21st century. J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
  7. 7. J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
  8. 8. The status of the climate change J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council The year 2014 was the warmest ever recorded by humans. Then 2015 was warmer still. January 2016 broke the record for the largest monthly temperature anomaly. February didn’t break climate change records – it obliterated them. Regions of the Arctic were were more than 16C warmer than normal and the surface of the Earth north of the equator was 2C warmer than pre-industrial temperatures.
  9. 9. Wide systemic impact Climate change is the biggest and most systemic risk Source: World Economic Forum, Global Risks 201627 Highest impact
  10. 10. Zimbabwe has suffered $1.6 billion in damage from its 2016 drought. This is approximately 12% of their GDP. (Image credit: Ziniyange Auntony/AFP/Getty Images.) Fiji suffered $470 million in damage from Category 5 Cyclone Winston's impact in February 2016. ~10% of their GDP. (Image credit: My Fijian Images and Jah Ray.) Vietnam: $6.7 billion damage from its 2016 drought. 4% of Vietnam's GDP (Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images)2016 J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
  11. 11. J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
  12. 12. Source: IPCC J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
  13. 13. BIOVERSITY PROBLEMS J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council Source: IPCC The graph charts the maximum speed that different species can move against how fast they must move, shown on the right. Many species fall below the line of the worst-case scenario (the dotted red line marked “RCP8.5 flat areas”), which means they have no chance of survival. Only some species of split-hoofed mammals, carnivorous mammals, plant-feeding insects and freshwater mollusks even stand a chance.
  14. 14. Carbon Tracker; <”60$/barrel oil” is burnable 14 Increasing amount of investors are divesting fossil fuels or actively impacting fossil companies to have 2 C targets J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
  15. 15. Valuations illustrate the end game of fossil energy has begun J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
  16. 16. J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council “It is not a coincidence that immediately prior to the civil war in Syria, the country experienced the worst drought on record. As many as 1.5 million people migrated from Syria’s farms into Syria’s cities, and that intensified the political unrest that was beginning to brew. Now, I’m not telling you that the crisis in Syria was caused by climate change. No, obviously, it wasn’t. It was caused by a brutal dictator who barrel-bombed, starved, tortured, and gassed his own people,” Kerry said. “But the devastating drought clearly made a bad situation a lot worse.”
  17. 17. 1. Climate Leadership Council 2. The status of the climate change 3. Paris agreement and next phases 4. Innovation needs and opportunities Contents J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
  18. 18. TEMPERATURE AND LONG-TERM GOAL - Capping global temperature increases since pre-industrial times to 1,5-2C degrees. - Means emission reduction between 40 percent to 70 percent by 2050 compared to 2010 levels. REVISION MECHANISM - Countries will need to update their current pollution-reduction pledges by 2020 and then do so every five years. CARBON MARKETS - A mechanism that would allow credits could be used for internationally. TRANSPARENCY - A framework for monitoring, measuring and verifying emissions reductions. FINANCE - The deal obliges developed nations to help developing countries pay for reducing pollution and adapting to the impacts of climate change. The next goal will be to increase the $100 billion a year that they had previously agreed to provide by 2020. J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
  19. 19. J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
  20. 20. In INDC or current emission scenarios a >50% chance of keeping +2C target is lost 25-28 years World Energy Outlook 2015, Dr. Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director. Presentation in Tokyo 21.12.2015.J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
  21. 21. Due to the long time horizon of the investments, 1,5 or well below 2C targets should be set ASAP 40 years - 40% reductions (1%/y): ”low hanging” changes first 20 years - 55% reduction (2,7%/y): more difficult changes 1,5-2,0C targets should be set in 2018 and also drivers for the change When knowing that the change will be massive, we should postpone it to 2030-2050, when it may become undoable. J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
  22. 22. 1. Climate Leadership Council 2. The status of the climate change 3. Paris agreement and next phases 4. Innovation needs and opportunities Contents J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
  23. 23. Renewables J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council Futurist Ray Kurzweil: solar power has been doubling every two years for the past 30 years — as costs have been dropping. He says solar energy is only six doublings — or less than 14 years — away from meeting 100% of today’s energy needs. Developing countries invested more than high-income countries: China 36% of the global total. India increased by 22% and US by 19%. In Europe the investments in renewables fell by 21%.
  24. 24. Energy efficiency J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council World Energy Investment Outlook, Special Report. IEA 2014.
  25. 25. Storages J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council 25
  26. 26. Carbon sinks J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council Carbon is the backbone of life on Earth. We are made of carbon, we eat carbon and our civilizations - our economies, our homes, our means of transport - are built on carbon.” Some of the carbon is in motion. Most of it is locked away in rocks and underground in deposits of coal, oil and natural gas. The rest moves through the Earth’s “four spheres”: the geosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere and biosphere, also known as soils, water, air and living things. Ocean’s are the biggest sink. They currently soak up 48% of the CO2 emissions. Recent research has found, that the carbon-storing ability of oceans is declining, in part because they are warming and cold water is better at holding CO2. That makes our land-based sinks – those forests, soils, wetlands and grasslands — even more important. Carbon cycle is not in balance. During the last 200 years of fossil fuel combustion have put more carbon into the atmosphere than the carbon cycle can handle. The excess of CO2, lingers in the atmosphere like a blanket around the Earth, trapping heat and producing global warming. The most fundamental objective to keep climate change at adaptable levels is to restore the Earth’s carbon balance. DOE and several of its national laboratories estimated in 1999 that natural carbon sinks worldwide were removing about 2 gigatons of carbon annually from the atmosphere. The labs concluded that an ambitious international effort could remove five times that much carbon from the atmosphere, more than 10 gigatons each year. Today, natural carbon sinks store about 16% of the United States’ annual CO2 emissions from fossil energy combustion. Healthy soils hold more moisture and are more productive. Moving animals from pasture to pasture before they can over-graze allows grasslands to host the pollinators critical to 75% of the word’s food crops. Wetlands retard flooding, recharge groundwater and provide another type of wildlife habitat. Coastal marshes reduce damages from storm surges. Urban forests and green spaces reduce flooding, provide an inexpensive way to control storm water and reduce the urban heat island effect that causes illnesses and deaths. Rural forests hold raindrops and soils in place, preventing erosion that would otherwise pollute rivers and streams.
  27. 27. Forests as carbon sinks and as producers of value adding materials J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council Biofuels
  28. 28. Annually this means ~$1.100 billion. In 2010–2015 the investment level has been $300–350 billion. Big majority of the funds should come from the private sector. https://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/graphics/investment- in-global-energy-supply-by-fossil-fuel-non-fossil-fuel-and- power-td.html Investment in global energy supply by fossil fuel, non-fossil fuel and power T&D Upsoar investments: We need $ 16,5 trillion investments into cleantech and energy efficiency by 2030 to meet 2 C goal J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
  29. 29. Attracting capital to clean solutions J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council Use carbon price Wang Yining, China Association of Machine Industry March 3, 2016, Globe conference 2016, Vancouver
  30. 30. Electrification of ”everything” J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council Liu Zhenya, Chairman, State Grid, China. Photos by J Keronen from Business & Climate Summit 21.5.2016, Paris.
  31. 31. CURRENT FINNISH STRENGTHS AND FUTURE GLOBAL MARKETS ANNUAL GLOBAL MARKET SIZE US$ BILLION GROWTH BY 2050
  32. 32. Mitigation 1. Renewables 2. Energy efficiency 3. Storage 4. Carbon sinks 5. Upsoar investments 6. Electrification of ”everything” Protection Adaptation Innovation needs and opportunities J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
  33. 33. 33J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council Thank You! “We’re the first generation to feel the impact of climate change and the last generation that can do something about it.” Gov. Jay Inslee Photo by Myrskyvaroitus – Stormwarning ry

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