Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

How to Perform Churn Analysis for your Mobile Application?

1,738 views

Published on

For every marketer of mobile application, acquiring new customers certainly requires more effort in terms of time and money. On the other hand, firm can always focus on maintaining existing customer base and gain maximum out of them. If this is the case, then predictive analysis will be the correct approach for this situation.

The primary goal of this webinar is to predict segment of Mobile application users,

* Who will uninstall the app
* Remain inactive (which will be also termed as a churner) for quite long time and are expected to churn.

Churn analysis is the approach by which we will predict the likelihood of this event to occur.

Our webinar covers:

* How to extract data from Google Analytics using R
* How to build churn model in R
* Identifying the customer/subscriber segment that are classified based on past data pattern, who are likely to churn (Study customer behavior Patterns)

Watch Full Webinar - http://www.tatvic.com/webinar/churn-analysis-for-mobile-application/

Published in: Data & Analytics
  • Be the first to comment

How to Perform Churn Analysis for your Mobile Application?

  1. 1. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company How to perform Churn Analysis for your Mobile Apps March 19th, 2014 Free Webinar by
  2. 2. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Your Speakers • @parikh_shachi • Technical Analyst @Tatvic • Interested in jQuery, JavaScript and Data Analysis • @Mrugesh_soni • Web Analyst @Tatvic • Interested in Statistical Modelling of data
  3. 3. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Overview
  4. 4. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Overview What is Churn Analysis?
  5. 5. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Overview What is Churn Analysis? Why we are carrying out Churn Analysis?
  6. 6. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Overview What is Churn Analysis? Why we are carrying out Churn Analysis? What are the Benefits Of Churn Analysis?
  7. 7. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Overview What is Churn Analysis? Why we are carrying out Churn Analysis? What are the Benefits Of Churn Analysis? What data will back- up my churn analysis?
  8. 8. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Overview What is Churn Analysis? Why we are carrying out Churn Analysis? What are the Benefits Of Churn Analysis? What data will back- up my churn analysis? How to extract the desired data?
  9. 9. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Overview What is Churn Analysis? Why we are carrying out Churn Analysis? What are the Benefits Of Churn Analysis? What data will back- up my churn analysis? How to extract the desired data? Why did we select this data abstraction method?
  10. 10. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Overview What is Churn Analysis? Why we are carrying out Churn Analysis? What are the Benefits Of Churn Analysis? What data will back- up my churn analysis? How to extract the desired data? Why did we select this data abstraction method? Why Predictive Model?
  11. 11. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Overview What is Churn Analysis? Why we are carrying out Churn Analysis? What are the Benefits Of Churn Analysis? What data will back- up my churn analysis? How to extract the desired data? Why did we select this data abstraction method? Why Predictive Model? Which machine learning Algorithm will fuel our model?
  12. 12. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Overview What is Churn Analysis? Why we are carrying out Churn Analysis? What are the Benefits Of Churn Analysis? What data will back- up my churn analysis? How to extract the desired data? Why did we select this data abstraction method? How to build predictive model? Why Predictive Model? Which machine learning Algorithm will fuel our model?
  13. 13. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company What is Churn Analysis? • The term “Churn” refers to customer attrition • The process of identifying those customers who are most likely to discontinue the use of your service or product is known as Churn Analysis
  14. 14. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Why Churn Analysis? • Customer Acquistion Cost > Customer Retention Cost • Customer might Churn before you recover Acquisition Cost • Signals that indicate whether a Customer is about to Churn – Cancel Account/Service – Uninstall Mobile App • Difficult to Retain them with standard Retention Measures • Calls for a Pro-active Approach
  15. 15. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Business Objective for Churn Analysis Reduce Customer Churn • Predictwhether a customer will Churn and when it will happen • Understand why customers churn and act on these reasons
  16. 16. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Revenue as a function of Churn Rate If you cut your churn in half, then in few years your revenue will be increase by 50 %
  17. 17. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Impact of Churn on your business in terms of revenue 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 1 2 3 4 5 R e v e n u e i n $ YearsTotal Revenue… Total Revenue… 2X $ X $ After 5 years, a company with 3% churn rate has 50% higher recurring revenue than the company with 6% churn rate
  18. 18. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Churn: Implications on Mobile Apps Most of the Apps Lose Half of their Peak Users within 3 Months 1500 1,700 1,900 1,720 1,460 1,272 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 1 2 3 4 5 6 # o f u s e r s Months Total User 1500 1,700 1,900 2,020 2,116 2,193 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 1 2 3 4 5 6 # o f u s e r s Months Total… Before Churn Analysis After Churn Analysis
  19. 19. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company 1500 1,700 1,900 1,720 1,460 1,272 500 500 500 500 500 500 300 300 680 760 688 650 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 # o f U s e r s Months Total User Before Churn Analysis Effect on Total Users : Before and After Churn Analysis
  20. 20. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company 1500 1,700 1,900 1,720 1,460 1,272 500 500 500 500 500 500 300 300 680 760 688 650 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 # o f U s e r s Months Total User Before Churn Analysis 1500 1,700 1,900 2,020 2,116 2,193 500 500 500 500 500 500 300 300 380 404 423 439 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 1 2 3 4 5 6 # o f U s e r s Months Total User After Churn Analysis Effect on Total Users : Before and After Churn Analysis
  21. 21. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company How to begin with Churn Analysis? • Identify the type of App (eg. Gaming/Social/Productivity/Travel) • Identify the activities that users perform on your app • Identify the frequency of usage of core features across your user-base • Identify the average life-time for your user base
  22. 22. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Churn Criteria w.r.t. App • Cut-off date defines the date difference between Current Date and the Date when user last engaged with your app • E.g. User A last interacted with app on 9th Feb 2014 and has been inactive ever since • Cut-off Date for User A is 40 days
  23. 23. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Data Points for defining Churn Other parameters can be: • # of activities performed since the app was downloaded • # of times the user visited your app • Date of App install • Whether the user interacted with Core Features on a regular basis • And so on…depending upon the nature of your app.
  24. 24. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Overview What is Churn Analysis? Why we are carrying out Churn Analysis? What are the Benefits Of Churn Analysis? What data will back- up my churn analysis? How to extract the desired data? Why did we select this data abstraction method? How to build predictive model? Why Predictive Model? Which machine learning Algorithm will fuel our model?
  25. 25. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company 3 Steps prior to Model building 1 • Variable Selection 2 • Data Extraction 3 • Data Preprocessing
  26. 26. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Variable(Feature) Selection Category Variable Location Country Device Specific Operating System Device category In App behavior Count of sessions Days since last visit User action User specific action1 User specific action2 User specific action3 User specific action4
  27. 27. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Extracting Google Analytics Data into R User performing data extraction Google OAuth2 Authorization Server Google Analytics API Access Token Response Call API for list of profiles Call API for query Access Token Request Image adapted from: Google Analytics Core Reporting API Dev Guide
  28. 28. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Overview What is Churn Analysis? Why we are carrying out Churn Analysis? What are the Benefits Of Churn Analysis? What data will back- up my churn analysis? How to extract the desired data? Why did we select this data abstraction method? How to build predictive model? Why Predictive Model? Which machine learning Algorithm will fuel our model?
  29. 29. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Data Preparation Steps • Exclude new user who have downloaded the app recently
  30. 30. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Overview What is Churn Analysis? Why we are carrying out Churn Analysis? What are the Benefits Of Churn Analysis? What data will back- up my churn analysis? How to extract the desired data? Why did we select this data abstraction method? How to build predictive model? Why Predictive Model? Which machine learning Algorithm will fuel our model?
  31. 31. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Overview What is Churn Analysis? Why we are carrying out Churn Analysis? What are the Benefits Of Churn Analysis? What data will back- up my churn analysis? How to extract the desired data? Why did we select this data abstraction method? How to build predictive model? Why Predictive Model? Which machine learning Algorithm will fuel our model?
  32. 32. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Classification Problem • In our case, we are trying to predict whether user will churn or not • Based on data points, we are trying to classify between two outcomes • This is a Classification Problem Churn “YES” 1 “NO” 0
  33. 33. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Logistic Regression • Logistic Regression is the technique when you are trying to predict the binary output. • In our case Predictor(dependent) variable will be unique key(Visitor ID) for each visitors • Predicted label would be 1 : Visitor will churn 0 : Visitor would not churn • Using the Logistic Regression algorithm we predict the probability of a user getting Churn or not
  34. 34. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Model building Process • Split Data Randomly into Train and Test Sets • Build the Model on the Train Data-set • Apply the Model on the Test Data-set (un-seen data) • Calculate the Accuracy Metric for the model on the Test Data 70% 30% Train Data Set Test Data Set
  35. 35. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Model Accuracy Accuracy = (Number of Correctly Predicted Labels) / Total Number of Labels = (620 + 1024)/ (620 + 4 + 7 + 1024) ~ 99.34 % Predicted Labels (Predicted by running Model on Test data set) Actual labels (From Test data set) Churn Not Churn Churn 620 4 Not Churn 7 1024 Confusion Matrix
  36. 36. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company User Segmentation Fencers Activators Engaged Loyalists
  37. 37. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company User types Fencers Tried App just once in last x days Awareness, Benefit, cost of not using App Activators Tried App more than once, used more than one feature Increase Knowledge , Motivation Engaged Tried App more than once, more than 2 features/levels of app, more at infrequent time Learning, practice, improving skills Loyalists Regular usage of app with most of features, shares app, recommends, provide feedback Practice, improve, influence others Characteristics Messaging 0.87 0.56 0.45 0.35Churn chance
  38. 38. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Overview What is Churn Analysis? Why we are carrying out Churn Analysis? What are the Benefits Of Churn Analysis? What data will back- up my churn analysis? How to extract the desired data? Why did we select this data abstraction method? How to build predictive model? Why Predictive Model? Which machine learning fuel our model?
  39. 39. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Full Webinar Video Watch full Webinar Video - http://bit.ly/1ChPrOe Webinar Video
  40. 40. #tatvicwebinar A GACP and GTMCP company Thank you! Mrugesh Soni mrugesh@tatvic.com

×