Regional sea level projections and attribution

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Presentation given by Roderik van de Wal at the symposium on Sea Level Rise by TU Delft Climate Institute
http://bit.ly/Y5dPvY

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Regional sea level projections and attribution

  1. 1. Regional sea level Click to edit Master title style projections and attribution• ____ __ ____ Master____ styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Click to edit text styles – Second level_____ _____ Second level____ _____ • Third level Roderik van de Wal Third level_____ _____ Fourth level____ _____ – Fourth level IMAU Utrecht Fifth level Nov 2012 » Fifth level Contributions from: A. Slangen, C. Katsman, P. Leclercq, J. Gregory, B. Vermeersen12/3/2012 1
  2. 2. Munk’s enigma (2002) Click to edit Master title style• ____ __ ____ rise styles Click historic Master text ______ “The to edit text Click to edit Master_____ ____ styles____ _____ started too early, – Second level_____ _____ Second level Third level • Third level_____ _____ has level linear a trend,____ _____ – Fourth too Fourthlevel Fifth level and is too large” » Fifth level (about sea level rise in the 20th century)12/3/2012 2
  3. 3. The global budget Click to edit Master title style Blue: 1961-2003 Brown:1993-2003• ____ __ ____ Master____ styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Click to edit text styles – Second level_____ _____ Second level____ _____ Third level • Third level_____ _____ Fourth level Recent insights show that____ _____ – Fourth level Fifth level due to increased thermal expansion and and increased » Fifth level contribution from glaciers the budget maybe closed IPCC AR4 2007 Gregory et al. in press12/3/2012 3
  4. 4. Click to Attribution edit Master title style• ____ __ scale satisfying ____ styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Global ____ text styles Click to edit Master – Second level_____ _____ *no gap between explained and observed Second level____ _____ Third level • Third level “Local” scale Fourthlevel_____ _________ _____ – Fourth level Fifth level *Some level » Fifth regions convincing climate response with distinct pattern *non-climate effects not to be excluded12/3/2012 4
  5. 5. Projections style Click to edit Master title• ____ __ ____ Master____ styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Click to edit text styles – Second level_____ _____ Second level____ _____ Third level • Third level_____ _____ Fourth level____ _____ – Fourth level Fifth level » Fifth level12/3/2012 5 Excluding the effect of recent dynamical changes in ice sheets
  6. 6. How can ice change it’s mass Click to edit Master title style• ____ __ ____ Master____ styles CLIMATE Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Click to edit text styles – Second level_____ _____ Second level____ _____ Third level • Third level_____ _____ Fourth level Lubrication effect____ _____ – Fourth level Fifth level » Fifth level DYNAMICSButressing effect12/3/2012 6
  7. 7. How to calculate SLC? Click to edit Master title style• ____ __ ____ Master____ styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Click to edit text styles – Second level_____ _____ Second level____ _____ Third level • Third level_____ _____ Fourth level____ _____ – Fourth level Fifth level » Fifth level12/3/2012 7
  8. 8. Predictions NL versus global Click to edit Master title style• ____ __ ____ Master____ styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Click to edit text styles – Second level_____ _____ Second level RCP8.5____ _____ Third level • Third level_____ _____ Fourth level____ _____ – Fourth level Fifth level Median » Fifth level NL +10%12/3/2012 8
  9. 9. Possibility for early warning systems sea level rise Click to edit Master title style • ____ __ ____ Master____ styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Click to edit text styles – Second level _____ _____ Second level ____ _____ Third level • Third level _____ Greenland _____ Fourth level WU10 ____ _____ – Fourth level Fifth level » Fifth level Gravity measurements Radar altimetry 12/3/2012 9Source: Katsman (2011) Ice velocity
  10. 10. Future developments Click to edit Master title style • Click to edit Master• ____ __ risk assessment ____ styles Hazard ____ text styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ • Expert solicitation exercises – Second level_____ _____ Second level____ _____ Third level • •_____ Third level Deterministic improvements_____ _____ Fourth level____ – Fourth level Fifth level » Fifth level12/3/2012 10

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