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The Transportation Revenue Estimator and Needs Determination System

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The Transportation Revenue Estimator and Needs Determination System (TRENDS) model funded by the Texas Department of Transportation is designed to provide transportation planners, policy makers and the public with a tool to forecast transportation revenues and expenses based on a user-defined level of investment at both the state and local
level. The user, through interactive windows, can control a number of variables related to assumptions regarding statewide transportation needs, population growth rates, fuel efficiency,
federal reimbursement rates, inflation rates, taxes, fees and other elements. The output is a set of tables and graphs showing a forecast of revenues, expenditures and fund balances for each year of the analysis period based on the
user-defined assumptions. The TRENDS model also includes a local option sub-model for each of Texas’ 25 Metropolitan Planning Organizations. Through the local option model the user can analyze changes in local revenues by creating
or adjusting a local fuel tax, local vehicle miles traveled tax, local vehicle registration fee or the local fuel efficiency rates.

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The Transportation Revenue Estimator and Needs Determination System

  1. 1. The Transportation Revenue Estimator and Needs Determination System (TRENDS) model funded by the Texas Department of Transportation is designed to provide transportation planners, policy makers and the public with a tool to forecast transportation revenues and expenses based on a user-defined level of investment at both the state and local level. The user, through interactive windows, can control a number of variables related to assumptionsregardingstatewidetransportation needs, population growth rates, fuel efficiency, federal reimbursement rates, inflation rates, taxes, fees and other elements. The output is a set of tables and graphs showing a forecast of revenues, expenditures and fund balances for each year of the analysis period based on the user-defined assumptions. The TRENDS model also includes a local option sub-model for each ofTexas’25MetropolitanPlanningOrganizations. Through the local option model the user can analyze changes in local revenues by creating or adjusting a local fuel tax, local vehicle miles traveled tax, local vehicle registration fee or the local fuel efficiency rates. As new data become available the TRENDS model is updated to reflect the new infor- mation. Variables that are maintained and updated on a regular basis include: trends-tti.tamu.edu/ T.R.E.N.D.S. MODEL • TxDOT cash flow forecasts • Agency fund transfers • Letting volume information • Bond sales and debt service • Population • Fuel economy • Vehicle registrations • Construction cost inflation • Vehicle miles traveled • Other critical variables as necessary Saving Lives, Time and Resources tti.tamu.edu
  2. 2. David Ellis SHRB, Room 336 (979) 845-6165 d-ellis@tamu.edu Brianne Glover SHRB, Room 332 (979) 458-0919 b-glover@tamu.edu TTI1726.3896.1216 Texas A&M Transportation Institute 3135 TAMU College Station, TX 77843-3135 http://tti.tamu.edu/group/finance/ To solve transportation problems through research, to transfer technology and to develop diverse human resources to meet the transportation challenges of tomorrow. TTI’s Mission Contact TTI’s Mission The Texas A&M Transportation Institute, established in 1950, seeks solutions to the problems and challenges facing all modes of transportation. The Institute works on over 700 research proj- ects with over 200 sponsors in the United States and abroad at all levels of government and in the privatesector.TTIisrecognizedas oneofthefinesthigher-education- affiliated transportation research agencies in the nation. TTI has saved the state and nation billions of dollars through strategies and products developed through its research program. TTI research has a proven impact — resulting in lives, time and resources saved. About TTI Outputs Revenue and Expense Tables and Charts Revenues and Expenses by Category Local Option Revenue Reports User Controlled Variables State Gas and Diesel Tax Rates Federal Gas and Diesel Tax Rates Fuel Tax Indexing Vehicle Registration Fees Vehicle Miles Traveled (VM) Fee Local Option Fees Population Growth Fuel Efficiency Inflation Rates Maintenance Scenarios Local Construction Allocations Economic Impacts

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