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Christina Hopfe, Loughborough University (UK) “Addressing uncertainties in simulating and monitoring wall constructions”

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The Future Envelope 12
Interreg IT-AU FACEcamp project
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Conference on Building Envelopes
20-21 May 2019, NOI Techpark, Bolzano (Italy)
"It’s all about performances".

Published in: Technology
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Christina Hopfe, Loughborough University (UK) “Addressing uncertainties in simulating and monitoring wall constructions”

  1. 1. The Future Envelope 12 It’s all about performances Addressing uncertainties in monitoring and simulating enhanced fabric performance Dr Christina Hopfe Loughborough University www.interreg.net FACEcamp final event | Bolzano, 20-21 May 2019 FACEcamp is funded by European Regional Development Fund and Interreg V-A Italy-Austria 2014-2020.
  2. 2. The Future Envelope 12 final event 20-21 May 2019, Bolzano Problems • Buildings underperform • Performance gap not well understood • How to separate losers from winners? Source CIOB http://www.constructionmanagermagazine.com
  3. 3. The Future Envelope 12 final event 20-21 May 2019, Bolzano Case 1: Simulation engine - how accurate is it? Mantesi, E., Hopfe, C. J, Cook, M. J., Glass, J. (2016). Investigating the impact of modelling uncertainty on the simulation of ICF for buildings. Proceedings from BSO2016 Conference. Newcastle, 12-14 September 2016, UK Step 1: Inter-Model Comparison Default Algorithms Step 2: Parametric Analysis on Equivalent Models  Significant inconsistencies in the simulation predictions provided by 9 BPS tools ~ 57% difference. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Annual Heating (kWh) Tool E Tool I 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 A B C D E F G H I Annual Heating (MWh) 57%  Key factors affecting simulation results: o Internal surface convection coefficient o Infiltration o Variable natural ventilation o Thermal bridging calculation
  4. 4. The Future Envelope 12 final event 20-21 May 2019, Bolzano Case 2: The modelling gap : what do we model? Mantesi, E., Hopfe, C. J, Goodier, C., Glass, J., Cook, M. J. , Strachan, P. (2018). The modelling gap: Quantifying the discrepancy in the representation of thermal mass in building simulation
  5. 5. The Future Envelope 12 final event 20-21 May 2019, Bolzano Case 3: the impact of the occupants South- West view of Twiga Lodge, Surrey, UK
  6. 6. The Future Envelope 12 final event 20-21 May 2019, Bolzano Case 3: The impact of input and occupancy Step 1: Uncalibrated Models Input data from NCM Step 2: Calibrated Models Unoccupied Week Step 3: Calibrated Models Occupied Week  Good agreement in the simulation predictions provided by the two BPS tools.  Significant divergence between simulation and monitoring results when models uncalibrated.  Overall good consistency between simulation predictions from both BPS tools and between simulation and monitoring.  The house is unoccupied – Scenario uncertainty excluded from the analysis.  Higher inconsistency in the simulation results provided by the BPS tools.  The divergence between simulation and monitoring results is also higher in the occupied period. 0 10 20 30 40 7/7 7/9 7/11 7/13 Internal Air Temperature Co Living Room Tool I Monitored Temp Tool E Outdoor Temp 0 10 20 30 40 7/24 7/26 7/28 7/30 Internal Air Temperature Co Living Room Tool I Monitored Temp Tool E Outdoor Temp 0 10 20 30 40 7/24 7/26 7/28 7/30 Internal Air Temperature Co Living Room Tool I Tool E Outdoor Temp Monitored Temp Mourkos, K., Mantesi, E., Hopfe, C. J, Goodier, C., Glass, J., Cook, M. J. (2017). The Role of Fabric Performance in the Seasonal Overheating of Dwellings. Building Simulation 2017.
  7. 7. The Future Envelope 12 final event 20-21 May 2019, Bolzano Case 4: the challenge of new materials Mantesi, E., Hopfe, C. J, Glass, J., Cook, M. J. (2019). Empirical and Computational Evidence for Thermal Mass Assessment: The Example of Insulating Concrete Formwork, Energy and Buildings, 188, 314-332
  8. 8. The Future Envelope 12 final event 20-21 May 2019, Bolzano Case 5: new challenges because of climate data sets.. • Wind driven rain (WDR) is a combination of wind and rain • Different theories on co-occurrence wind and rain • Large variability in geographic location • WDR difficult to measure directly (incl. direction) • Limited information of the influence of climate change References: Tersteeg, Hopfe, Allinson, 2018. : Hygrothermal assessment of two solid-brick walls under varying internal and external parameter settings, Building Simulation and Optimization (BSO)18, Cambridge
  9. 9. The Future Envelope 12 final event 20-21 May 2019, Bolzano ..in combination with the choice of insulation Tersteeg, Hopfe, Allinson, 2018. : Hygrothermal assessment of two solid-brick walls under varying internal and external parameter settings, Building Simulation and Optimization (BSO)18, Cambridge Station 3 1 2 1 2 Station 3
  10. 10. The Future Envelope 12 final event 20-21 May 2019, Bolzano Case 6: IEA EBC Annex 71: “Building energy performance assessment based on in situ measurements” Source: Mantesi, Mourkos, Hopfe, McLeod, Strachan, Deploying Building Simulation to Enhance the Experimental Design of a Full-scale Empirical Validation Project, BS 2020, Rome, Italy Create a preliminary synthetic dataset of the experiment to evaluate the usability of the real measurement dataset, before the actual experiment is conducted.
  11. 11. The Future Envelope 12 final event 20-21 May 2019, Bolzano • Deterministic: actual experiment was replicated in EPlus to create a synthetic dataset • Probabilistic: various uncertain parameters were ranked according to their impact >> universally applicable method to be used as an adjunct to empirical validation process in a multitude of building performance research Novel procedure for incorporating virtual BPS experiments as diagnostic precursor to support full-scale empirical validation. Both deterministic and probabilistic simulations: Source: Mantesi, Mourkos, Hopfe, McLeod, Strachan, Deploying Building Simulation to Enhance the Experimental Design of a Full-scale Empirical Validation Project, BS 2020, Rome, Italy
  12. 12. The Future Envelope 12 final event 20-21 May 2019, Bolzano Summary When analysing the performance of facade elements, it is important to have a better understanding of • default settings (if using simulation tools), • occupancy and internal room conditions • material properties, in particular when planning with newer facade elements • climatic conditions and how this influences the choice of materials • heating, cooling and future behaviour Absolute certainty may not be achievable - but a better knowledge of uncertainty and risk is certainly possible!
  13. 13. The Future Envelope 12 final event 20-21 May 2019, Bolzano • Toughness; the capacity to recover quickly from difficulties • Strategies incorporating both robustness and other attributes such as ‘redundancy’ (or spare capacity) and adaptability are considered increasingly important even on the micro-scale. • at a micro-scale robustness-based design approaches dominate the objective of achieving resilience. Hopfe, CJ, McLeod, RS, Rollason, T. 2017 Opening the black box: Enhancing community design and decision making processes with building performance simulation, BS 2017 Source: earthshare.com >>instead of achieving resilience (whereby the building is able to withstand a number of different impacts) only single or multi-objective optimization (e.g. is the building carbon neutral) are actually typically considered We need to build resilient buildings
  14. 14. References • Mantesi, E., Hopfe, C. J, Cook, M. J., Glass, J. (2016). Investigating the impact of modelling uncertainty on the simulation of ICF for buildings. Proceedings from BSO2016 Conference. Newcastle, 12-14 September 2016, UK • Mantesi, E., Hopfe, C. J, Goodier, C., Glass, J., Cook, M. J. , Strachan, P. (2018). The modelling gap: Quantifying the discrepancy in the representation of thermal mass in building simulation • Mourkos, K., Mantesi, E., Hopfe, C. J, Goodier, C., Glass, J., Cook, M. J. (2017). The Role of Fabric Performance in the Seasonal Overheating of Dwellings. Building Simulation 2017. • Mantesi, E., Hopfe, C. J, Glass, J., Cook, M. J. (2019). Empirical and Computational Evidence for Thermal Mass Assessment: The Example of Insulating Concrete Formwork, Energy and Buildings, 188, 314-332 • Tersteeg, R., Hopfe, CJ, Allinson, D (2018) Hygrothermal assessment of two solid-brick walls under varying internal and external parameter settings, Building Simulation and Optimization (BSO)18, Cambridge • Mantesi, E., Mourkos, K., Hopfe, CJ, McLeod, RS, Strachan, P., Kersken, M. (2019) Deploying Building Simulation to Enhance the Experimental Design of a Full-scale Empirical Validation Project, BS 2020, Rome, Italy • Hopfe, CJ, McLeod, RS, Rollason, T. (2017) Opening the black box: Enhancing community design and decision making processes with building performance simulation, BS 2017 • Forde, J, Hopfe, CJ, McLeod, RS (2019), Temporal optimization of affordable Passivhaus dwellings: is peak load a more reliable metric for cost optimal design?, Submitted to Applied Energy The Future Envelope 12 final event 20-21 May 2019, Bolzano
  15. 15. Thank you for your attention! www.interreg.net Dr Christina Hopfe Loughborough University C.J.Hopfe@lboro.ac.uk FACEcamp is funded by European Regional Development Fund and Interreg V-A Italy-Austria 2014-2020.

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