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Philosophy of Science for Engineers at UPC Barcelona - Overview

A small course on fundamentals of philosophy of science, geared at computer scientists and engineers

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Philosophy of Science for Engineers at UPC Barcelona - Overview

  1. 1. Modelling and Simulationand Philosophy of Science for EngineersChair for Information Systems ManagementUniversity of BayreuthProf. Dr. Torsten Eymann
  2. 2. 2Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSLectures and ExercisesLectures:Week 1Introduction to the “Philosophy of Science”Research using Model Building and SimulationExercises:Week 3Modeling and simulation with AnyLogic softwareApplication of acquired knowledge to simulate a scientific problemMaterial: of performance:Assignments, project work
  3. 3. 3Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSAbout MeFull Professor for Information SystemsManagement since 2004University of Bayreuth, Germany12.000 students at 70.000 populationCourses onFundamentals of Information SystemsManagement and Electronic CommerceBusiness IntelligenceIT-InfrastructuresIT-Governance and IT-SecurityModelling and Simulation
  4. 4. 4Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSWhat is Science?Science and the Theory of ScienceEpistemology, Logic und MetaphysicsTheory, Hypothesis, Antithesis, SynthesisFalsification, Rejection and AcceptanceHermeneutics, Empirism, RationalismParadigms and Scientific ProgramsScientific Method4
  5. 5. 5Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSCore QuestionsWas ist Science?How to distinguish from Consulting or Astrology?Properties of Scientific TheoriesElements of Theories and Relations between themAcceptable Scientific Methods and ProcessesRanking of Sciences – The Two CulturesNatural Sciences above all?How reliable is a scientific statement?
  6. 6. 6Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSPhilosophy of Science and Information Systems ResearchPart 1: Basic concepts of science andPhilosophy of Science
  7. 7. 7Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSCloud computing use will double by 2020The medium distance from Earth to Sun is 149.597.870 kmIncreasing the price of a car by 20% leads to increased turnover by 20%92% of German Internet users never upload videos to YouTubeTomorrow will be a 70% chance of rainScience or not?
  8. 8. 8Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSDefinition: ScienceScience isany system of knowledge that is concerned with thephysical world and its phenomena and that entailsunbiased observations and systematicexperimentation. In general, a science involves apursuit of knowledge covering general truths or theoperations of fundamental (2008). In Encyclopædia Britannica. RetrievedJune 17, 2008, from Encyclopædia Britannica Online:
  9. 9. 9Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSScience broken down in piecesany system of knowledge (not just a fact)concerned with the physical world and itsphenomena (something to observe)unbiased observations and systematicexperimentation (interpersonal, generalizable)pursuit of knowledge (a method) coveringgeneral truths orthe operations of fundamental laws.
  10. 10. 10Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSWhat is Science?
  11. 11. 11Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSThere are nine million bicycles in BeijingThats a fact,Its a thing we cant denyLike the fact that I will love you till I die.We are twelve billion light years from the edge,Thats a guess,No-one can ever say its trueBut I know that I will always be with you.
  12. 12. 12Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSFACT
  13. 13. 13Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSSCIENTIFICFACT
  14. 14. 14Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSGUESS
  15. 15. 15Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSQUALIFIEDGUESS
  16. 16. 16Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSDefinition: Epistemologythe study of the nature, origin, and limits of human knowledge. The term isderived from the Greek episteme (“knowledge”) and logos (“reason”), andaccordingly the field is sometimes referred to as the theory of knowledge.epistemology. (2008). In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved June 17, 2008, fromEncyclopædia Britannica Online: to answer questions like "What is knowledge?", "How is knowledgeacquired?", and "What do people know?“ Eymann, U Bayreuth, Germany
  17. 17. 17Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSWhat is Knowledge?Moore’s Paradox: "Its rainingoutside but I dont believe that it is.“(Contradiction of Belief Knowledge)„I believe this bridge is safe to cross“vs. „I know this bridge is safe tocross“[]
  18. 18. 18Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSScientific Discovery and PredictionDiscovering a Theoryis a creative act"To raise new questions, newpossibilities, to regard oldproblems from a new angle,requires creative imagination andmarks real advance in science."p.92, Albert Einstein and LeopoldInfeld (1938), The Evolution of Physics:from early concepts to relativity andquanta ISBN 0-671-20156-5"The instant I saw the picture mymouth fell open and my pulsebegan to race.“James D. Watson (1968), The DoubleHelix, page 167. New York: Atheneum
  19. 19. 19Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSScientific Conclusion and ReasoningProving a theory ishard labour“During all those years ofexperimentation and research, I neveronce made a discovery. All my workwas deductive, and the results Iachieved were those of invention, pureand simple.”Thomas Alva Edison, “Talks with Edison"by George Parsons Lathrop in Harpersmagazine, Vol. 80 (February 1890), p. 425"I am not accustomed to sayinganything with certainty after only oneor two observations."[27]Andreas Vesalius (1546)
  20. 20. 20Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSGetting your Ph.D. requiresAn IdeaPerseveranceA realistic view on the achievableSynopsis20
  21. 21. 21Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSSCIENCE (NOT)
  22. 22. 22Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSPolywater"Unnatural Water". Timemagazine. December 19, 1969.Western scientists werefrankly skeptical. RussianChemists N. Fedyakin and BorisDeryagin claimed to haveproduced a mysterious newsubstance, a form of waterthat was so stable it boiledonly at about 1,000°F., or fivetimes the boiling temperatureof natural water. It did notevaporate. It did not freeze—though at —40°F., with little orno expansion, it hardened intoa glassy substance quite unlikeice.
  23. 23. 23Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSScience – The end of the world by polywatervacuumglass tubepolywater
  24. 24. 24Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSScience – The end of the world by polywaterCharacteristics of polywaterCharacteristics Water Polywaterviscosity liquid jellylikefreezing point 0 C -30 C to -60 Cboiling point 100 C 150 C to 250 C
  25. 25. 25Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUS"Doubts about Polywater". Timemagazine. October 19, 1970."Challenged by critics to letimpartial scientists analyze hispolywater, Deryagin had turnedover 25 tiny samples of thesubstance to investigators of theSoviet Academy of SciencesInstitute of Chemical Physics. Theresults, which were published inthe journal, showed thatDeryagins polywater was badlycontaminated by organiccompounds, including lipids andphospholipids, which areingredients of humanperspiration."
  26. 26. 26Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSScience – The end of the world by polywaterIndicator of the research of polywaterDiscovery of an new type of water by Russian ScientistsDesired “pursuit race” of the WestDiscovery may jeopardize continuity of the Earth (hysteria)Reproducibility only in extremely small quantitiesSkeptics are accused of sloppiness
  27. 27. 27Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSDefinition: Metaphysicsthe philosophical study whoseobject is to determine the realnature of things—to determinethe meaning, structure, andprinciples of whatever isinsofar as it is.Aristotle had distinguished twotasks for the philosopher: first,to investigate the nature andproperties of what exists in thenatural, or sensible, world, andsecond, to explore thecharacteristics of “Being assuch” and to inquire into thecharacter of “the substancethat is free from movement,”Camille Flammarion,LAtmosphere:Météorologie Populaire(Paris, 1888), p. 163.metaphysics. (2008). InEncyclopædiaBritannica. RetrievedJune 17, 2008, fromEncyclopædiaBritannica Online:
  28. 28. 28Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSDefinition: Ethicsalso called moralphilosophy.the discipline concernedwith what is morally goodand bad, right and wrong.The term is also applied toany system or theory ofmoral values or principles.ethics. (2008). In EncyclopædiaBritannica. RetrievedJune 17, 2008, fromEncyclopædia BritannicaOnline:
  29. 29. 30Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSScience - Science areasWhat unites and distinguishes the scientific work to the polywater and the x-rayresearch?Criterion Polywater X-raysphenomenon unreal realnature ofsciencepathologicalsciencenaturalscienceelaborateness ofthe experimentscarefulimplementationcarefulimplementationmeasurability ofthe effecthardlymeasurable effectwith the nakedeyetype of research directed as desired open
  30. 30. 31Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSScience - Science areaspathological science pseudoscienceparascienceNon-scienceformal orideal sciencemathematicslogicreal sciencenatural science cultural sciencespecific naturalscienceengineeringelectricalengineeringmechanicalengineeringphysicschemistrysocialscienceeconomylawsociologyhumanitiesphilosophylinguisticshistoryScience
  31. 31. 32Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSScience – Scientific idealAnswers to "important" issuesGet real answersRecognisability of the answers to be trueDeductive suggestion from one component to another*Radnitzky 1979
  32. 32. 33Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSScience – Knowledge gained through induction ordeductiontheoryempiricismstatements about some eventsstatements about all eventsinductiondeduction
  33. 33. 34Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSInductivism – The principle of inductiontheoryempiricismstatements about some eventsstatements about all eventsinductiondeduction“if a large number of A’s have beenobserved under a wide variety ofconditions, and if all these observed A’shave the property B, then all A’s probablyhave the property B”Chalmers 1999„ Wenn eine große Anzahl von A unter einergroßen Vielfalt von Bedingungenbeobachtet wird, und wenn alle diesebeobachteten A ohne Ausnahme dieEigenschaft B besitzen, dann besitzen alleA die Eigenschaft B.“Chalmers 2001
  34. 34. 35Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSEmpiricism – Inductive gain of insightsexperience knowledgeexplorate„[…] Vertrautseinmit bestimmtenHandlungs- undSachzusam-menhängenohne Rekurs aufein hiervonunabhängigestheoretischesWissen.“Mittelstraß 1980Knowledge, based on argumentsand (strict) checksopposite: suppose or beliefClassical EmpiricismExponents:Aristoteles (384 – 322 v. Chr.)John Locke (1632 – 1704)George Berkeley (1685 – 1753)David Hume (1711 – 1776)John Stuart Mill (1806 – 1873)[…] familiaritywith specificaction andsubjectinterdepencieswithout recourseto anindependenttheoreticalknowledge.Mittelstraß 1980
  35. 35. 36Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSLogical empiricism – A unit of science?Logical Empiricism = Logical Positivism = Neo-positivismPositivism1. Insights from facts2. Rejection of metaphysicsExponents:Henri de Saint-Simon (1760 – 1825)Auguste Comte (1798 – 1857)TargetCriteria for evaluating philosophicalmethods(Classical) EmpiricismInductive gain of insight
  36. 36. 37Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSLogical empiricism – Some exponentsRudolf Carnap(1891 – 1970)http://www.iep.utm.eduLudwig Wittgenstein(1889 – 1951) http://www.iep.utm.eduBertrand Russell(1872 – 1970)„Wiener Kreis“: Vienna circle… et al.
  37. 37. 38Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSRationalism – Knowledge by thinking?!transmission?knowledgeinterpretation viasenses1 kg 100 kgreligious apocalypse/prophecyAge of the earth: 6.000 – 12.000 yearsthinking
  38. 38. 39Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSRationalism – Knowledge by thinking?!Existence of "a priori truths“Mathematics as obvious truth (e.g., it is always "1 +1 = 2")Gain of insight by deductionWhat truth follows from what truth?Possible errors:“A person is mortal.“ – “They are not human.“ – “They are immortal.“ illogical (Animals are immortal?)“If God had created the universe, it would be rule in the order of nature.” –“There is order through the laws of nature.” – “God created the universe.“ illogical (Other reasons for the laws of nature?)
  39. 39. 40Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSIf I know what to search for and have a generalizable process (a method), then Iwill arrive at some (comprehensible and precise) results= acceptance or rejection of a scientific theoryComprehensionIs a theory correct, if assertions are logically building upon each other (can Iverify?) orIs a theory correct, as long as there are no observations in contradiction to thetheory (can‘t I falsify?)Structure and Method
  40. 40. 41Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSFalsifiability (Popper)Karl Popper. Flv
  41. 41. 42Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSFalsifiability – The principle of falsificationtheoryempiricismstatements about some eventsstatements about all eventsinductiondeduction„[…], lässt sich eine wissenschaftlicheHypothese zwar niemals erweisen, wohlaber, wenn sie falsch ist, widerlegen, undes fragt sich deshalb, ob nicht Thatsachenbeigebracht werden können, welche miteiner der beiden Hypothesen inunauflöslichem Widerspruch stehen undsomit dieselbe zu Fall bringen.“Weismann 1868
  42. 42. 44Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSExperience Law? Experiment
  43. 43. 45Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSFalsifiability – Falsification of a statementFalsifiable Statement:„All Swans are white“Leda and the Swan, a 16th century copyafter a lost painting by Michelangelo, 1530(National Gallery, London)
  44. 44. 46Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSFalsifiability – Falsification of a statementFalsifiable Statement:„All Swans are white“Black Swan (discovered 1790,Australia)
  45. 45. 47Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSFalsifiability – Falsification of a statementNot falsifiable statement:“All prime numbers have exactly two natural numbers as a divider.”
  46. 46. 48Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSFalsifiability – Observation as the beginning?Observation:Number “592”: 592- 295= 297+ 792= 1089Observation is problematic only through theoryTheory: Algorithm always leads to "1089" with three-digit number,at which the first number is bigger than the last digit by at least 2.
  47. 47. 49Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSFalsifiability – Karl Raimund PopperRejection of induction (problem of induction)Approach of falsifiability (problem ofdemarcation)Founder of critical rationalism:insights only temporarytesting by several empirical testsAdvance of scientific knowledgehttp://www.iep.utm.eduKarl Raimund Popper(1902 – 1994)problem (P1)problem (P2)tentative theory (TT)error elimination (EE)Popper, Miller 1997approximation to the truth
  48. 48. 50Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSKarl Raimund Popper - Summarydiscover justifiyfalsifiable theoryobservation (tentative)theoryTarget: finding the truth (-approximate)
  49. 49. 51Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSFalsifiability – BoundariesFalsifiability: observation statements are falseExample: an experimental falsifiability of the theory T by observing BStudy  theory ≠ observationWhat is wrong: The theory or the observation?
  50. 50. 52Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSFalsifiability – BoundariesTheory: “The Earth rotates!“ (Copernicus)Observation vs. (at that time) expected result:Result: theory is falsified  "The earth does not rotate! “ (Claudius Ptolemaeus)tearthearth
  51. 51. 53Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSAnarchism - „Anything goes“Epistemological anarchism, DadaismRules on scientific knowledge:harmfulsenseless“Against Method“Proliferation principlePersistence principlehttp://de.wikipedia.orgPaul Feyerabend(1924 – 1994)
  52. 52. 54Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSPhilosophy of Science – What is a theory?observation:context:observation :context :observation:context :Passage of solid objects by twocolumnspattern with two stripesPassage of photons by twocolumnspattern with several stripesPassage of waves by twocolumnspattern with several stripes
  53. 53. 55Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSScience – What is a “scientific theory”Highly falsifiable theory ≻ low falsifiable theoryRejection of falsified theoriesPreparation of highly speculative hypotheses: progress through trial and error
  54. 54. 56Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSPhilosophy of Science – What is philosophy of science?Concept of science:1. Strict standards of the underlying form of knowledge creation.*2. Social event for the stabilization of the scientific form of knowledge creation.*3. Guides us in the search of the truth.*Aim of science: to gain insights/ progress* Mittelstraß 2010
  55. 55. 57Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSPhilosophy of Science – What is philosophy of science?Philosophy of Science as “neueste Form des ewigen Dreinredens derPhilosophie *…+ in das Geschäft der Wissenschaften“?Mittelstraß 1985neverthelessIt is a philosophical discipline in which the scientific practices are methodicallyelucidated, i.e. investigation ofresearch formtheory form: structure of theory, dynamics of theory, explication of theoriesMittelstraß 1985
  56. 56. 58Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSPhilosophy of Science – Part 1 - SummaryEmpiricism Rationalismexperience ≻ rationality rationality ≻ experienceknowledge from experience knowledge only by rationalitydefinitions, laws, etc. derived fromindividual things (experiences)definitions, laws, etc.only by rationalityproblem: generalization of experience ≠reliable knowledgemission statement: mathematics (logic)
  57. 57. 59Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSPhilosophy of Science – Part 1 - Summary(classical)empiricism(historical)positivismlogicalpositivismrationalismcriticalrationalismDescartes (1596 – 1650)Locke (1632 – 1704)Berkeley (1685 - 1753)Hume (1711 - 1776)Mill (1806 - 1873)Carnap (1891 – 1970)Gödel (1906 – 1978)Reichenbach (1891 – 1953)Feyerabend (1924 – 1994)Popper (1902 – 1994)Comte (1798 – 1857)epistemologicalanarchismtime
  58. 58. 60Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSReferencesChalmers 1999: Chalmers, Alan F.: What is this thing called science?. Hackett PublischingCompany, p. 51.Chalmers 2001: Chalmers, Alan F.: Wege der Wissenschaft. Springer 2001, p. 40.Esterbauer 2005: Esterbauer, Reinhold: Grundkurs Metaphysik., Abruf am 01.09.2011.Gethmann 1995: Gethmann, Carl F.: Proliferationsprinzip. In: Mittelstraß, J.:Enzyklopädie Philosophie und Wissenschaftstheorie Band 3. J. B. Metzler,Stuttgart/Weimar 1995, pp. 359 - 361.Heinrich 2005: Heinrich, Lutz J.: Forschungsmethodik einer Integrationsdisziplin: EinBeitrag zur Geschichte der Wirtschaftsinformatik. In: NTM Zeitschrift für Geschichte derWissenschaften, Technik und Medizin 13 (2005), pp. 104 – 117.Mittelstraß 1980: Mittelstraß, Jürgen: In: Mittelstraß, J.: Enzyklopädie Philosophie undWissenschaftstheorie Band 1. J. B. Metzler, Mannheim/Wien/Zürich 1980, p. 568 – 570.
  59. 59. 61Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSReferencesMittelstraß 1985: Mittelstraß, Jürgen: Die Philosophie der Wissenschaftstheorie – Überdas Verhältnis von Wissenschaftstheorie, Wissenschaftsforschung undWissenschaftsethik. In: Zeitschrift für allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie XIX/2 (1988), pp.308 – 327.Mittelstraß 2010: Mittelstraß, Jürgen: Kommentar zu Reinhard Mocek: Von derUniversalität der Wissenschaftsgeschichte (1981). In: Zeitschrift für Geschichte derWissenschaften, Technik und Medizin 18 (2010), pp. 431 – 436.Popper, Miller 1979: Popper, Karl Raimund; Miller, David: Lesebuch. 2. Auflage, UTB,Göttingen 1997, S. 59.Radnitzky 1979: Radnitzky, Gerard: Erkenntnisfortschritt und Theoriebewertung. Dreikonkurrierende Ansätze in der Wissenschaftstheorie. In: Die Naturwissenschaften 66(1979), pp. 121 – 129.
  60. 60. 62Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUSReferencesThiel 1996: Thiel, Christian: Theorie. In: Mittelstraß, J.: Enzyklopädie Philosophie undWissenschaftstheorie Band 4. J. B. Metzler, Stuttgart/Weimar 1996, pp. 260 – 270.Weismann 1868: Weismann, August: Über die Berechtigung der Darwin‘schen Theorie.Engelmann, Leipzig 1868, p. 14 f.