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Andy Lowe_Space as a proxy for time: the Australian Transect Network


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Andy Lowe_Space as a proxy for time: the Australian Transect Network

  1. 1. Australian Transect Network:Space as a proxy for timeAndrew Lowe, Stefan Caddy-Retalic, Alan Anderson,Maurizio Rossetto
  2. 2. Why transects?• Scaling-up from local, plot-based studies• Developing, calibrating and validating ecological models and remote sensing products• Identifying sensitive zones in relation to stress and disturbance/environmental gradients
  3. 3. Why transects?• Environmental gradients • Climatic, fire, altitude, oceanic, disturbance• Space as a proxy for time • Observations • Translocations• Flexible methodology • Core parameters (cf AusPlots) • Citizen science• Not GRADSECT
  4. 4. Examples• RS validation• Model validation
  5. 5. A Global Network of Transects
  6. 6. Tracking climate change• Species turn-over • Plant and animal communities (Williams/Hoffman)• Adaptive trait turn-over • Bird and wing size (Gardner et al PRSB 2009)• Gene turn-over • Heat resilience genes in fruit flies (Umina et a 2005)
  7. 7. TERN Science Questions1. How do species abundances, species composition, species richness and ecological function change along large-scale environmental gradients?2. Is there predictable variation in ecosystem resilience?3. How might ecosystems respond to climate change?
  8. 8. LTERN Transects (environmental gradients) Tropical Savanna NATT North Australian Tropical Transect SWATT South West Australian Transitional Transect Acacia ShrublandSpinifex Hummock Grassland TREND TRansect for ENvironmental monitoring and Decision making BATS/BATN Biodiversity and Adaptation Transect SydneyEucalypt Open Woodland Eucalypt Forest
  9. 9. Northern Australian Tropical Transect (NATT) Dr Alan Andersen, CSIRO Subcontinental‐scale transects for assessing and monitoring ecological change in Australia
  10. 10. South West Australian Transitional Transect (SWATT) •10 sites along the transect Transect from Walpole to Credo Station to Lorna Glen
  11. 11. Biodiversity Adaptation Transect Sydney/NSW (BATS/BATN)
  12. 12. Biodiversity Adaptation Transect Sydney/NSW (BATS/BATN) Dr Maurizio Rossetto, Herbarium of NSW Floristic and functional turnover across elevation gradients
  13. 13. Transect for Environmental Monitoring and Decision-making Legend Heysen Trail Annual Rainfall Contours (100 mm) Vegetation turn-over quantified ! ( Terrestrial Ecosystem Monitoring Sites Guerin & Lowe EMAS 2012 Mean Annual Maximum Temperature 17 ˚C 23 ˚C Guerin et al in prep 18 ˚C 24 ˚C 19 ˚C 25 ˚C 20 ˚C 26 ˚C 21 ˚C 27 ˚C 22 ˚C 28 ˚C
  14. 14. Species turn-over 1986-2010 shift P = 0.001Shift consistent with models for individual species that shifted in frequency Guerin & Lowe EMAS 2012
  15. 15. Species turn-over decline in Climate current 2050 suitability suitability Refugium with models speciesMaxEnt turnover Refugium with low turnover Fragmented vegetation over refugial area 2050: 1.5 degree T increase, Guerin and Lowe AustEcol 2012 8% rainfall decrease Guerin et al Ecography 2013
  16. 16. Species turn-overRegional species turnoverRaw data 86% deviance explained Relative species compositionModel data Guerin et al Ecography 2013
  17. 17. Adaptive trait turn-over Leaf morphology shift Narrow-leaf Hop Bush Dodonaea viscosa Flinders Ranges populations Leaf width driven by Shift in leaf width over latitude gradient time linked to increaseGuerin et al Biol Lett 2013 (summer maxima) in summer maximaGuerin & Lowe Biol Lett 2013 (+1.2º since 1950)
  18. 18. Gene turn-overUsing new genomicstechniques•DNA barcoding•Biogeography•Population Genetics/Genomics•Meta Genomics•Phenomics McCallum et al AustEcol 2013
  19. 19. Policy outcome:Weighted benefit maps for policy andland management decision makers Susan Sweeney SA-DEWNR Climate change science into policy: the TREND experiment in South Australia
  20. 20. Connecting the public to research is a TREND priority. This needs to be a two-way dialogue.
  21. 21. User submitted images can be analysed to derive landscape information and visualise change over timeStefan Caddy‐Retalic, Australian Transect Network:TREND Citizen Science: Using mobile apps toimprove and harness environmental awareness
  22. 22. Path forward• New questions and interests• Creating a cohesive network• Demonstrating infrastructure value• Identifying new opportunities • Collaborations • Funding • Continental transects