TCI2013 Challenges to the Nordic model: a Swedish perspective
Challenges to the Nordic Model: a Swedish perspective
Societal Challenges and Clusters: the Scandinavian Model vs other
6 September 2013
TCI Annual Global Conference 2013
Challenges to the Nordic Model: A Swedish perspective
Pontus Braunerhjelm, Managing Director Swedish Entrepreneurship Forum
Professor in Economics, The Royal Institute of Technology
• International trends
• What makes a cluster?
• The Nordic model/position
• Cluster policies
… and a growing role for services ...
4Source: OECD-WTO, Trade in Value Added database,
Share of service value added in total gross export, 1985-2009
Patent applications 1995-2009
Japan U.S. EU15 China Korea Russia Canada Israel India Brazil
Business investment in KBC and tangible assets (% adjusted GDP, 2010)
Source: OECD calculations based on INTAN-Invest, Eurostat and multiple national sources.
Increasing investments in KBC
New firms matter – they account for 35-65% of job creation
The role of young firms (less than 5 years old) for job creation, average from 2001 to 2011.
Employment growth in internationally traded sectors,
Källa: Bjorvatn m fl. (2008)
”Silicon Valley is probably the only place on
earth not trying to copy Silicon Valley”
Robert Metcalfe, 1998
What makes a cluster?
but what about the igniting spark and growth potential for clusters?
Role for policy?
Limited to providing the infra-structure of the cluster?
What makes a cluster?
3-stage processes – Knowledge base, entrepreneurs and
service providers (VC, legal competencies, etc.)
Variety, heterogeneity and selection mechanisms - dynamics
Pre-existing conditions – unpredictable whether it leads to
agglomeration and consolidation of clusters. Once seed is
planted – is the local system fit to emerge and grow?
Highly influenced by policy - not only climate (Hollywood) or
individual brilliance (Silicon Valley)
Immigration and growth
Income per person and predicted openness to migrants
Share of value
Pre-fab services Post-fab servicesFabrication
1970s & 1980s value
‘Smile curve’: Distribution of value
Ease of Doing
Denmark 5 11 2 2 9 20
Norway 6 13 7 3 25 4
Finland 11 17 12 8 16 9
Sweden 13 19 8 13 16 17
Iceland 14 15 15 5 16 3
Average , Norden 9,8 15 8,8 6,2 16,4 10,6
29,3 16 16 16 14,4 15,9
The Nordic Model
An international comparison
Expected employment growth in new firms, 2010–2012
20 or more employees in the coming five years
Change of Share of Chinese Imports
Selected European Countries
2000 2005 2010
(Source: UNCTAD (2011), Ketel 2012.)
Share of Country in Chinese
Imports, Level in 2000 = 1