2013-14 Third Quarter Fiscal Update
and Economic Statement
February 26, 2014
Overview

• Turning the corner – back in the black
Operational Deficit/Surplus – full year
Budget 2013

Q1

Q2



$451 M...
Overview

• Proceeding with caution - revenues
remain volatile
• Turning the corner and continuing down
road set out in bu...
Economic Strength

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth
Year-over-year % change

6

5.2

5
4

3.8

3.7
3.3

3
2
1
0

A...
Economic Strength

Population

26.5%
11.1%

Alberta
Canada

Employment

Growth 2003-2013

27.6%
13.2%

Average number of j...
Oil Price Differential
$110
100

$15

90
80

$10

$39

$37

70
60
50
Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-...
2013 Flood

$6B natural disaster event
Provincial support
• $1.2 B commitment for small businesses and
communities
• $537 ...
Booming Population
Alberta’s Finances

Operational Plan
Operational Operational
Deficit
Surplus

Operational Operational
Revenue
Revenue

(Q3...
Alberta’s Finances

Capital Plan
Capital
Spending

Capital
Spending
(Q3 actual)

Average
Borrowing
Cost

Heritage
Fund Rat...
Alberta’s Finances

Savings Plan
Contingency Account

Contingency Account

(Budget 2013 estimate)

(Revised 2013-14 foreca...
Stay tuned for Budget 2014
March 6
www.finance.alberta.ca
twitter.com/AB_TB_Finance
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2013-14 Third Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement

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2013-14 Third Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement - presentation by Doug Horner, President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance - February 26, 2014

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2013-14 Third Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement

  1. 1. 2013-14 Third Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement February 26, 2014
  2. 2. Overview • Turning the corner – back in the black Operational Deficit/Surplus – full year Budget 2013 Q1 Q2   $451 M deficit $500 M deficit to $250 M deficit to $250 M surplus $250 M surplus Q3  $1.4 B surplus
  3. 3. Overview • Proceeding with caution - revenues remain volatile • Turning the corner and continuing down road set out in budget • Spending taps will not open up • Surplus to cushion future revenue drops
  4. 4. Economic Strength Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Year-over-year % change 6 5.2 5 4 3.8 3.7 3.3 3 2 1 0 Alberta Canada USA
  5. 5. Economic Strength Population 26.5% 11.1% Alberta Canada Employment Growth 2003-2013 27.6% 13.2% Average number of jobs added per month in 2013 Alberta 2,600 5,700 Rest of Canada Monthly employment growth Jan to Dec, 2013
  6. 6. Oil Price Differential $110 100 $15 90 80 $10 $39 $37 70 60 50 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 WTI WCS
  7. 7. 2013 Flood $6B natural disaster event Provincial support • $1.2 B commitment for small businesses and communities • $537 M operating expense and $33 M in capital spending to December 31
  8. 8. Booming Population
  9. 9. Alberta’s Finances Operational Plan Operational Operational Deficit Surplus Operational Operational Revenue Revenue (Q3 estimate) (Q3 actual) (Q3 estimate) (Q3 actual) ($372 M)  $28.1 B  Operational Operational Expense Expense (Q3 estimate) $28.5 B $1.2 B Operational Borrowing (Q3 actual)  $29.6 B $0 $30.8 B Net Assets Net Assets (Budget 2013 estimate ) (Q3 revised forecast) $41.1 B $43.9 B Decrease of $1.97 B Decrease of $335 M
  10. 10. Alberta’s Finances Capital Plan Capital Spending Capital Spending (Q3 actual) Average Borrowing Cost Heritage Fund Rate of Return (Q3 estimate) $ 3.45 B $3.5 B 3.7% 11.6% Debt Servicing Debt Cap 0.6% 3% (of operational revenue)
  11. 11. Alberta’s Finances Savings Plan Contingency Account Contingency Account (Budget 2013 estimate) (Revised 2013-14 forecast) $691 M  $4.6 B Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund (Fair Value of Net Assets @ Q3) $17.3 B
  12. 12. Stay tuned for Budget 2014 March 6 www.finance.alberta.ca twitter.com/AB_TB_Finance

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