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2013-14 Second Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement

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2013-14 Second Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement - presentation by Doug Horner, President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance - November 26, 2013

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2013-14 Second Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement

  1. 1. 2013-14 Second Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement November 26, 2013
  2. 2. Overview • Turning the corner • Challenges remain • Fastest growing province • Floods • Bitumen bubble is back
  3. 3. Booming Population
  4. 4. Flood Costs • June 24 - Floods • June 27 - $1 B commitment • November 25 - $764 M supplementary estimate
  5. 5. Economic Strength • Solid foundation • Strong growth • Net asset position
  6. 6. Economic Strength Population 24.3% 10.8% Employment 28.2% 14.4% 32.9% Real GDP 19.8% Alberta Growth in select indicators 2002-2012 Canada
  7. 7. Employment and Migration thousands Employment Growth (q/q) Net Migration 50 40 30 20 10 (10) (20) 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1
  8. 8. Q2 - Actual Results Operational Plan 6 Month Estimate Q2 Actual • • • • $19 B $19 B $15 M $58 M deficit     Operational Revenue Operational Expense Disaster/Emergency Assistance Operational Deficit/Surplus $20.4 B $19.3 B $ 458 M $1.1 B surplus Fiscal year end operational balance range: $250 M surplus to $250 M deficit
  9. 9. Oil Price Differential $110 100 $15 90 $10 80 $30 $40 70 60 50 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 WTI Jul-13 WCS Oct-13
  10. 10. Market Access Market access the biggest factor affecting oil revenue • • • • Opening new markets Washington D.C. visits Asia Canadian Energy Strategy
  11. 11. Flood Costs Flood spending forecast • $4.3 B this year • $3.1 B federal government • $1.2 B Alberta government
  12. 12. Flood Costs $764 M for initial requirement to support Albertans, businesses and communities. Cash cards, First Nations housing, purchasing homes in floodway, Hand-up Plan for small business, etc. $139 M $625 M Roads, bridges, erosion repair, etc.
  13. 13. Revised Budget Forecast Budget Estimate - Operational Plan Revised Operational Forecast Operational Revenue $37.7 B  $42.7 B Operational Expense $38.1 B  $42.7 B Operational Deficit $451 M  Operational Surplus $15 M Budget Estimate - Capital Plan Revised Capital Plan Forecast Capital Plan Spending $5.2 B  $5.7 B *Budget Balance Sheet Forecast *Revised Balance Sheet Forecast Contingency Account $0.7 B Heritage Fund and other funds $18.5 B Net Assets $42.3 B  $2.6 B - $18.5 B  $42.5 B *at March 31, 2014
  14. 14. Questions www.finance.alberta.ca twitter.com/AB_TB_Finance

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