'Social Mobility' TARGETjobs Breakfast News Sept 2013

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  • While 2000 for the world economy was about as good as it gets with growth in all major areas for the first time since the late 1980s, the second half of this year is likely to be among one of the sharpest slowdowns for 20 years. The attacks on America came at a bad time for the world economy. Growth in the US had already come to a standstill in response to the shake-out in the IT and telecoms sectors, and consumer sentiment had also just started to slide. It is now highly likely that the US will suffer a brief recession. Japan is again heading for recession and suffering from deflation. The contagion has spread to Europe, where both Germany and Italy are already becalmed. The size of the shock to the global economy will depend on the overall impact on confidence, especially among consumers in the US, and any disruption to supplies leading to higher prices for some goods and services. But the fact that all the major economies have been hit simultaneously and authorities have the scope to cut interest rates aggressively and introduce a fiscal stimulus, it may turn out to be a briefer slowdown than in the past. Indeed, stronger growth and lower inflation should become evident by the second half of 2002.
  • We can no longer deny that there is an issue and it ’ s getting worse. Highlightlinks to schooling and parental income
  • This makes commercial sense A dysfunctional society leads to a dysfunctional economy Without enough skilled people there are not enough employees or consumers
  • Can ’ t emphasise this enough This time next year you are all going to be struggling to fill your vacancies
  • We have we not been tackling this effectively
  • Quote FT example Fix social mobility and you fix race What other county could a survey on class become such a hot topic Try explaining our class system to an American
  • Universites and employers can do more – but the real issue is further back in the chain
  • If you don ’ t measure how do you know how you are doing This is harder to do than other diversity measures Enough employers are asking the questions so it is accepted amongst graduates
  • Refer to James and Sarah if they are in the room
  • 'Social Mobility' TARGETjobs Breakfast News Sept 2013

    1. 1. SOCIAL MOBILITY – ARE WE GETTING ANYWHERE? Quaglino’s, Thursday 12 September
    2. 2. AGENDA FOR TODAY Welcome – Simon Rogers THE ECONOMIC FORECAST Dennis will provide his usual unique take on the macro economy, focusing on the impact of cuts in public sector spending and will share his views on how it needs to reform for the future. THIS DEBATE IS HERE TO STAY! Stephen Isherwood, CEO, Association of Graduate Recruiters, will share some extracts from the recent AGR annual survey of employers, looking at how firms are measuring progress in recruiting a socially diverse workforce and how the social mobility debate in graduate recruitment is getting a lot more attention. THE CLASS CEILING Polly Toynbee, political and social commentator, The Guardian, will talk about the broad structural problems within our society that invariably lead to an imbalance of opportunity for young people. ARE WE GETTING ANYWHERE? Simon Howard, Chairman, work group, will argue that, no matter how much employers might trumpet their commitment to diversity and inclusion, their current graduate recruitment practices result in low levels of social mobility – and always will.
    3. 3. Unveiling the new TARGETjobs
    4. 4. New features of TARGETjobs • Employer hubs – company information, jobs and how to get hired advice in one designer microsite • Responsive design – easy navigation across mobile, tablet and desktop • Personalisation benefits – including saved search and companies launching early October • Direct access to timely career advice – improved homepage and sector homepage layout to direct users to key content • Improved search – all content searchable, discoverable and easy to access
    5. 5. National Graduate Employability Conference • The only employability conference in the UK to bring together 600–800 multi- disciplinary undergraduates with recruiters and universities • Keynote speaker announced shortly • Facilitated by Radio 1’s Aled Haydn-Jones • Presentations, cross-sector panel debates, interactive mixed-table discussions and networking sessions • Sponsorship opportunities available including hosting your own table of students from your target course area New 11 November at Wembley Stadium
    6. 6. trendence UK Graduate Barometer • Brand new London-based research centre • Dedicated UK research team • 25,000 students will take part over next 6 months • 400 employers • A NEW diversity focus for 2014 – covering ethnicity, nationality, social mobility, gender… As well as…..uniquely surveying students in a way that generates insights by year group, Russell Group vs non-Russell Group and by individual campuses, offering a bespoke competitor analysis and much more…. Bespoke reports Workshop Online tool
    7. 7. NEW trendence Law Student Barometer • 50+ key STEM course campuses • 4000+ responses • STEM female students only, cut by year group Competitor Analysis A NEW! Diversity focus Line your firm up against the top 10 firms that STEM females most want to work for – and find out why! • 25 key law course campuses • 3000+ responses • Law & non-law students, cut by year group Competitor Analysis A NEW! Diversity focus Collecting 25% more responses from Law Students @ target group campuses and courses NEW trendence STEM female Student Barometer Bespoke reports Workshop Online tool
    8. 8. THE ECONOMIC FORECAST Dennis Turner, former chief economist, HSBC Bank plc
    9. 9. THE RECOVERY STRENGTHENS
    10. 10. The recovery takes hold -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 % QUARTERLY ANNUAL Long-term average
    11. 11. But bumps in the road remain
    12. 12. 1 Consumer debt overhang 75 100 125 150 175 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 % 75 100 125 150 175 % Household debt:income ratios
    13. 13. 2 Europe still in the doldrums 2010 2011 2013 2014 2012 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 % -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 % Euro Area Greece Portugal Spain GDP growth
    14. 14. 3 Unemployment stubbornly high 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 %ofworkforce Unemployed 000s (L axis) Unemployment rate (R axis)
    15. 15. 4 The squeeze on the public sector a) Finances
    16. 16. Government finances weakened -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 %ofGDP 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 %ofGDP CURRENT REVENUE(RHS) CURRENT EXPENDITURE (RHS) SURPLUS/DEFICIT (LHS)
    17. 17. So net debt (as a % of GDP) soared 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 1990-91 1992 1994-95 1996 1998-99 2000 2002-03 2004 2006-07 2008 2010-11 2112 2114-15 2116 %ofGDP Sustainable Investment Rule Budget Statement, March 2013
    18. 18. Getting the deficit down 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016-17 2017-18 £ bn 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 % Net borrowing (L axis) % of GDP* (R axis)
    19. 19. Govt receipts and spending 35 40 45 50 55 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 % of GDP Budget Statement, March 2013 ----- Spending ----- Receipts
    20. 20. 4 The squeeze on the public sector a) Jobs
    21. 21. Public sector employment 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 %
    22. 22. Public v private employment trends 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 25,000 26,000 27,000 28,000 29,000 30,000 000s ------ Public sector share (%) ------ Total employment (000s)
    23. 23. Annual changes in employment -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 ---- Private sector ---- Public sector
    24. 24. Regional dependencies on public sector 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 North East North West Yorks and Humb East Midlands West Midlands East of England London South East South West Wales Scotland Northern Ireland %
    25. 25. OUTLOOK
    26. 26. Inflation – now likely to ease -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 %changemonthonmonth CPI RPI Target Range
    27. 27. Interest rates to stay low 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 % Forecast
    28. 28. GDP (100%) = Consumer spending (64%) Where is growth coming from?
    29. 29. Real earnings starting to grow again -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Average earnings growth Consumer price inflation Real earnings growth %
    30. 30. So, a slow consumer recovery -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.51991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 %CHANGE Consumer spending growth (%)
    31. 31. GDP (100%) = Consumer spending (64%) + Investment (15%) Where is growth coming from?
    32. 32. Companies reluctant to spend but 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 % 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 £billion Investment relative to post-tax surplus (L axis) Level of investment (R axis) Investment by Private Non-financial Corporations
    33. 33. investment to pick up……at last -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 %annualgrowth Business Investment Forecast – OBR 2013
    34. 34. GDP (100%) = Consumer spending (64%) + Investment (15%) + Government spending (23%) Where is growth coming from?
    35. 35. Govt unwilling contributors to spending 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016-17 2017-18 £ bn 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 % Net borrowing (L axis) % of GDP* (R axis)
    36. 36. GDP (100%) = Consumer spending (64%) + Govt consumption (23%) + Investment (15%) + Net trade (-2%) (Exports 30% – Imports 32%) Where is growth coming from?
    37. 37. Trade becomes a plus for growth -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 %ofGDP -12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 Annual%change BALANCE OF PAYMENTS DEFICIT (LHS) Annual export growth (% RHS) Annual import growth (% RHS)
    38. 38. Turning the corner
    39. 39. Sluggish growth as good as it gets -7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 % QUARTERLY ANNUAL Long-term average Forecast
    40. 40. THANK YOU
    41. 41. A classy approach to Social Mobility Stephen Isherwood, Chief Executive, Association of Graduate Recruiters
    42. 42. The charts that shame Britain Source: The Guardian
    43. 43. The business case – the economy suffers “Without proper investment in skills, people languish on the margins of society, technological progress does not translate into economic growth, and countries can no longer compete in an increasingly knowledge-based global society” Andreas Schleicher, OECD, 2012
    44. 44. The business case – shrinking talent pools Base population 735,000 Base GDP 2012 - £1,541,000m Source: Office for National Statistics
    45. 45. Diversity is an American import • Ethnicity • Gender • Disabilities • Sexual orientation
    46. 46. Diversity is an American import • Ethnicity • Gender • Disabilities • Sexual orientation Class
    47. 47. The heart of the problem Children's behavioural styles at age 3 are linked to their adult personality traits at age 26 By Avshalom Caspi, et al, Institute of Psychiatry, Kings College London & University of Wisconsin-Madison: Journal of Personality, 71(4), 2003, p. 496-513. Children whose parents earned over £691 per week had an advantage equivalent to being almost three months older than those whose parents earned less than £193 per week ‘Social Class and Inequalities in Early Cognitive Scores’, by Alice Sullivan, Sosthenes Ketende and Heather Joshi, was published in the journal Sociology in April 2013. Children with professional parents were more than seven months ahead of their peers whose parents had manual jobs ‘Social Class and Inequalities in Early Cognitive Scores’, by Alice Sullivan, Sosthenes Ketende and Heather Joshi, was published in the journal Sociology in April 2013.
    48. 48. Our industry must start measuring Source: AGR Summer Survey 2013
    49. 49. Best practice • Programmes Allen & Overy –Smart Start Summer work experience for 16-17 yr olds from disadvantaged backgrounds now in fifth year – over 500 students –Winner of AGR Social Mobility Award • Measurement Teach First –32% of intake 1st generation to university, 23% free school meals or EMA –All applicants asked about their school, free school meals entitlement and first generation at university status
    50. 50. Best practice • AGR guide to Social Mobility on www.agr.org.uk • Diversity Forum for members on 27th Sept – book online
    51. 51. NEW SOCIAL MOBILITY AWARD • Define exactly what you mean by Social Mobility within your organisation • State the aims and objectives of your social mobility strategy (with timescales) • What is the evidence that these have been successfully achieved/partly achieved and what metrics have you put in place to measure their success now and in the future? • What is the impact of your social mobility actions to the business now and what do you expect it to be in five years’ time? • How did you sell your social mobility strategy to the business? • How have you promoted/plan to promote the strategy to potential applicants? Please give examples Entry forms available from early October
    52. 52. THE GLASS CEILING Polly Toynbee, political and social commentator, The Guardian
    53. 53. ARE WE GETTING ANYWHERE? Simon Howard, Chairman, work group
    54. 54. The graduate jobs market
    55. 55. SCHOOL 72% of privately educated students get a 2:1+ 64% of state educated students get a 2:1+ SOCIAL CLASS 70% of grads from the top two social classes get 2:1+ 58% of 2:1+ come from top two social classes Graduate recruitment practices that limit social mobility 1. Degree class SUMMARY A 2:1 bar favours graduates educated at private schools as well as those from privileged family backgrounds Source: RGCC analysis of HESA data
    56. 56. SCHOOL 62% of privately educated entrants have 360+ Versus only 37% of state school entrants SOCIAL CLASS 47% of entrants from top two classes gain 360+ Versus 34% of entrants from all other social classes Graduate recruitment practices that limit social mobility 2. Tariff points SUMMARY A levels (UCAS tariff points) are a poor predictor of academic achievement or performance in a career, however they are reliable markers of class, ethnicity and education background. Source: RGCC analysis of HESA data
    57. 57. Graduate recruitment practices that limit social mobility 3. Campus targeting TOP 30 (T30) Campuses The 30 campuses most visited by employers – and consequently the 30 campuses polled for the Top 100 Employers SCHOOL 23% of all T30 students are privately educated Versus only 7% at all other campuses SOCIAL CLASS 67% of all T30 grads come from the top two social classes Compared to 52% at all other campuses SUMMARY By targeting your expenditure and presence on High Fliers campuses, you are addressing a more middle class, more white and more privately educated audience. Source: RGCC analysis of HESA data
    58. 58. If you’re serious about social mobility: Drop the 2:1 bar – not a predictor of job success, it’s discriminatory and is changing campus life for the worse Drop all reference to UCAS tariff point thresholds – not a proxy for ability, just a marker for exclusion Drop your fixation with the Top 100 Employers – your budgets are blown on 30 campuses, 91 others are mostly ignored Of course you won’t – and you shouldn’t
    59. 59. What might be done? • Tell the truth: 300,000 graduates chase 24,000 graduate jobs • Don’t hide the truth – it’s tough joining the elite • De-gradify – with more ‘doors marked open’ for 16 & 18 year olds • Better careers guidance • A consumer-focused education system (i.e. run for the benefit of students, parents and employers, not educationalists, bureaucrats, politicians and unions)
    60. 60. Odd one out?
    61. 61. SAVE THE DATE The next TARGETjobs Breakfast News is Thursday 28 November

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