'STEM & Us' Breakfast News 25 April 2013

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'STEM & Us' Breakfast News 25 April 2013

  1. 1. STEM & US
  2. 2. WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU VIA TWITTER
  3. 3. •  •  •  •  •  STEM students are using targetjobs.co.uk
  4. 4. AGENDA FOR TODAY THE ECONOMIC FORECAST – BACK TO THE FUTURE RECRUITING FROM STEM SUBJECTS THE QUESTIONS YOU KEEP ASKING ME THE MOST EXPENSIVE SCIENCE COLLABORATION IN THE WORLD - HOW CERN'S TECHNOLOGY TRAINING CAN SERVE UK INDUSTRY THE BIG BANG THEORY IN 15 MINUTES
  5. 5. THE ECONOMIC FORECAST – BACK TO THE FUTURE
  6. 6. Bumping along the bottom -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 % QUARTERLY ANNUAL Long-term average
  7. 7. The growth shortfall 0 1 2 3 4 201520142013201220112010 % 2013 Budget 2012 Budget 2011 Budget 2010 Budget Annual GDP growth forecasts in each Budget
  8. 8. …means more borrowing 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2010 Budget 2011 Budget 2012 Budget 2013 Budget Public sector net borrowing (£bn)
  9. 9. …and higher debt levels 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 %ofGDP 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 %ofGDP 2010 Budget 2013 Budget 2011 Budget 2012 Budget Public sector net debt:
  10. 10. OUTLOOK
  11. 11. Inflation – likely to ease -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 %changemonthonmonth CPI RPI Forecast Target Range
  12. 12. Interest rates to stay low 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 % Forecast
  13. 13. So sterling to remain competitive 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 $/£ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 €/£ Sterling weaker US$ / £ (L axis) euro / £ (R axis) Forecast
  14. 14. GDP (100%) = Consumer spending (64%) Where is growth coming from?
  15. 15. Real earnings growing again -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Average earnings growth Consumer price inflation Real earnings growth %
  16. 16. Debt repayment underway 75 100 125 150 175 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 % 75 100 125 150 175 % Household debt:income ratios
  17. 17. Reasons to be cheerful (1) • 
  18. 18. A slow consumer recovery -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 %CHANGE CONSUMER Forecast
  19. 19. GDP (100%) = Consumer spending (64%) + Investment (15%) Where is growth coming from?
  20. 20. Corporate sector in good shape 30 40 50 60 70 80 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 £billion 8 10 12 14 16 18 % Gross operating surplus Profitability Operating surplus and profitability of UK private non-financial companies
  21. 21. …but not spending 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 % 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 £billion Investment relative to post-tax surplus (L axis) Level of investment (R axis) Investment by Private Non-financial Corporations
  22. 22. Reasons to be cheerful (2) • 
  23. 23. Investment to pick up……at last -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 %annualgrowth Business Investment Forecast – OBR 2013
  24. 24. GDP (100%) = Consumer spending (64%) + Investment (15%) + Government spending (23%) Where is growth coming from?
  25. 25. Getting the deficit down 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016-17 2017-18 £ bn 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 % Net borrowing (L axis) % of GDP* (R axis)
  26. 26. GDP (100%) = Consumer spending (64%) + Govt consumption (23%) + Investment (15%) + Net trade (-2%) (Exports 30% – Imports 32%) Where is growth coming from?
  27. 27. Reasons to be cheerful (3) • 
  28. 28. Trade becomes a plus for growth -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 %ofGDP -12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 Annual%change BALANCE OF PAYMENTS DEFICIT (LHS) Annual export growth (% RHS)
  29. 29. Reasons to be cheerful (4) • 
  30. 30. Reasons to be cheerful (5) • 
  31. 31. Turning the corner
  32. 32. Light At The End Of The Tunnel • 
  33. 33. Sluggish growth – but growth -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 % QUARTERLY ANNUAL Long-term average Forecast
  34. 34. THE NEW AGENDA
  35. 35. A rebalanced economy -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 percentagepoints -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 percentagepoints Average 1999-2008 Contributions to growth Private consumption Investment Public spending Net trade
  36. 36. A rebalanced economy the goal Net trade Private consumption Business investment Govt Spending -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 percentagepoints -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 percentagepoints Average 1999-2008 Average 2010-2015 Contributions to growth
  37. 37. Where will growth come from? -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1993-2000 2001-2007 Industrial production (19) Transport and comms (8) Construction (6) Distribution, etc. (15) Property & business (24) Financial Services (3) Public services (24)
  38. 38. Manufacturing output 100 150 200 250 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 index(1950=100) 100 150 200 250 index(1950=100) Volume of manufacturing output
  39. 39. Manufacturing vs services 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 index(1950=100) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 index(1950=100) GDPServices Volume of output, 1950-2009 Manufacturing
  40. 40. FDI is essential 0 300 600 900 1200 1500 1800 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 No of projects Number
  41. 41. Overseas investment stock, 2011 UK France Germany Italy 0 500 1000 1500 0 500 1000 1500 Stock of overseas investment, 2011: EU total = $7,275 billion $ bn $ bn 16.5% 13.2% 9.8% 4.6%
  42. 42. THANK YOU
  43. 43. RECRUITING FROM STEM SUBJECTS
  44. 44. OPENING HEADLINES •  •  • 
  45. 45. WHAT GROUND WILL I COVER? •  • 
  46. 46. HOUSE OF LORDS SELECT COMMITTEE – HE IN STEM SUBJECTS (2012) •  •  •  • 
  47. 47. HOUSE OF LORDS SELECT COMMITTEE – HE IN STEM SUBJECTS (2012) •  •  •  •  –  –  –  – 
  48. 48. SOCIAL MARKET FOUNDATION •  •  • 
  49. 49. SOCIAL MARKET FOUNDATION •  •  • 
  50. 50. AGR SURVEY OF STEM RECRUITERS •  • 
  51. 51. RECRUITER APPROACHES TO OVERCOME THE PROBLEM                
  52. 52. WHY DO STEM GRADUATES AVOID STEM CAREERS?
  53. 53. IS THERE A GENDER ISSUE? •  • 
  54. 54. HOW DO YOU OVERCOME GENDER IMBALANCES? •  •  •  •  •  •  • 
  55. 55. ARE YOU INVOLVED IN ANY COLLECTIVE EFFORT TO ENCOURAGE YOUNG PEOPLE INTO YOUR SECTOR? •  • 
  56. 56. ONE THING TO IMPROVE THE SITUATION: •  •  •  •  •  •  •  • 
  57. 57. The key is to inform, inspire and educate younger people on the wealth of career opportunities that STEM can lead to.
  58. 58. THE QUESTIONS YOU KEEP ASKING ME
  59. 59. The usual suspects •  •  • 
  60. 60. BIG QUESTION #1
  61. 61. BIG ANSWER #1
  62. 62. But perhaps there is a shortage… •  •  • 
  63. 63. The cardinal sins of screening
  64. 64. The cardinal sins of screening
  65. 65. The salary shortage
  66. 66. The offer shortage
  67. 67. A tale of two civils
  68. 68. BIG QUESTION #2
  69. 69. BIG ANSWER #2
  70. 70. GCSE results – girls beat boys.
  71. 71. GCSE results – girls beat boys. Sort of.
  72. 72. So what A levels do they choose?
  73. 73. A Level results – girls beat boys.
  74. 74. A Level science – the boys are back…
  75. 75. Degree choices – old stereotypes apply
  76. 76. Speaking of old stereotypes…
  77. 77. What do we do about this? •  •  •  • 
  78. 78. BIG QUESTION #3
  79. 79. BIG ANSWER #3
  80. 80. The options… •  •  •  • 
  81. 81. Not all engineers are “engineers”. •  •  •  • 
  82. 82. Not all “engineers” are engineers.
  83. 83. A few final thoughts. •  •  •  •  • 
  84. 84. Get in touch
  85. 85. THE MOST EXPENSIVE SCIENCE COLLABORATION IN THE WORLD - HOW CERN’S TECHNOLOGY TRAINING CAN SERVE UK INDUSTRY
  86. 86. The Large Hadron Collider Lake Geneva LHC SPS PS France Switzerland
  87. 87. The Detectors •  –  –  –  •  –  –  •  –  –  • Français
  88. 88. Some LHC Statistics •  •  •  •  •  • 
  89. 89. Collaboration and Invention •  •  •  •  •  • 
  90. 90. UK Involvement and Funding •  •  •  •  •  •  • 
  91. 91. Training and Employment offered by CERN
  92. 92. Fields most in demand
  93. 93. The Learning Opportunity •  •  •  •  •  •  • 
  94. 94. UK Participation Figures
  95. 95. Moving Forward •  •  •  •  •  • 
  96. 96. Conclusion •  •  • 
  97. 97. THE BIG BANG THEORY IN 15 MINUTES
  98. 98. The effort to understand the universe is one of the very few things that lifts human life a little above the level of farce, and gives it some of the grace of tragedy. Steven Weinberg, Nobel Prize 1979 The Big Bang Theory in 15 Minutes
  99. 99. •  A Level Physics, 1982 55,728 entrants •  A Level Physics, 2006 28,119 entrants •  A Level Physics, 2012 34,509 entrants
  100. 100. It s my sweet Satan. The one whose little path would make me sad whose power is Satan. Oh, he ll give you, give you 666. There was a little toolshed where he made us suffer, sad Satan. www.reversespeech.com STOP It s my sweet Satan.It s my sweet Satan. The one whose little path It s my sweet Satan. The one whose little path would make me sad It s my sweet Satan. The one whose little path would make me sad whose power is Satan. It s my sweet Satan. The one whose little path would make me sad whose power is Satan. Oh, It s my sweet Satan. The one whose little path would make me sad whose power is Satan. Oh, he ll give you, It s my sweet Satan. The one whose little path would make me sad whose power is Satan. Oh, he ll give you, give you It s my sweet Satan. The one whose little path would make me sad whose power is Satan. Oh, he ll give you, give you 6 It s my sweet Satan. The one whose little path would make me sad whose power is Satan. Oh, he ll give you, give you 66 It s my sweet Satan. The one whose little path would make me sad whose power is Satan. Oh, he ll give you, give you 666. It s my sweet Satan. The one whose little path would make me sad whose power is Satan. Oh, he ll give you, give you 666. There was a little toolshed It s my sweet Satan. The one whose little path would make me sad whose power is Satan. Oh, he ll give you, give you 666. There was a little toolshed where he made us suffer, It s my sweet Satan. The one whose little path would make me sad whose power is Satan. Oh, he ll give you, give you 666. There was a little toolshed where he made us suffer, sad Satan. RREVEAL
  101. 101. The most incomprehensible thing about the universe is that it is comprehensible. Albert Einstein
  102. 102. There are two ways of arriving at the truth. I decided to follow them both. Georges Lemaître, 1894-1966 Your calculations are correct, but your physics is abominable.
  103. 103. Teletubbies = Time × Money but, Time = Money ⇒ Teletubbies = Money × Money ⇒ Teletubbies = Money2 and Money = √(Evil) ⇒ Teletubbies = Evil ⇒ Money2 = Evil
  104. 104. Wavelength (nm) 400nm 700 nm 700 nm 600 nm 500 nm 400 nm
  105. 105. 700 nm 600 nm 500 nm 400 nm 400nm 700 nm
  106. 106. Do the red shifts imply receding galaxies? Spherical Bastard
  107. 107. We are 12 billion light-years from the edge, That s a guess, No one can ever say it s true, But I know that I will always be with you. We are 13.7 billion light-years from the edge of the observable universe, That s a good estimate with well-defined error bars, And with the available information, I predict that I will always be with you

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