Gold Investment Symposium 2012 - Frederic Panizzutti - PAMP

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Gold Investment Symposium 2012 - Frederic Panizzutti - PAMP

  1. 1. Frederic Panizzutti Global Head of SalesMKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 1
  2. 2. MKS PRODUCTS AND SERVICES MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 2
  3. 3. MKS GROUP IN THE WORLD Netherland Switzerland USA Turkey China UAE Thailand India Singapore Vietnam Malaysia Australia MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 3
  4. 4. CONTENT o History o The Bretton Woods Years o The post Bretton Woods Years o The Era of Terror & «Washington Accord» o The Credit Crunch and Crisis o Modern Times o Why Gold? o Trends & Demand o Gold Price MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 4
  5. 5. HISTORYMKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 5
  6. 6. THE 3 MAJOR PHASES FOR GOLD BRETTON WOOD YEARS MONETARY GOLD 1944 -1975 July 1944: The Bretton Woods conference fixes the Gold price at 35 $/oz December 1945: The IMF, when founded takes over the gold price reference at 35 $/oz and requires 25% of initial subscriptions to be paid in gold, amounting a total of 4894 tonnes in 1975 November 1961: Creation of the Gold Pool to protect the $-Gold parity set by Bretton Woods & IMF March 1968: Abolition of the Gold Pool and USD/Gold parity. The IMF created the SDR by taking over the value of 0.888571 per share August 1971: The USD/Gold parity and convertibility is abolished August 1975: The IMF decided to auction 800t of Au and to restitute part of its holding to members Between 1945 -1970 the parity of monetized gold against the USD will be defended and its exchange rate remains stable MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 6
  7. 7. THE 3 MAJOR PHASES FOR GOLD BRETTON WOOD YEARS MONETARY GOLD 1944 -1975MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 7
  8. 8. THE 3 MAJOR PHASES FOR GOLD BRETTON WOOD YEARS MONETARY GOLD 1944 -1975 January 1975: The United States start to sell gold June 1976: The IMF starts to auction gold April 1978: The IMF decides that gold does not anymore play a role in the international monetary system November 1979: The United States finishes its gold salesFrom 1975 to 1979, 17 mio ounces (530 tones) of gold sold by the USA May 1980: IMF finishes its gold sales for a total of 25 mio ounces sold (778 tones) in a price rangefrom 109 to 712 $/oz MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 8
  9. 9. THE 3 MAJOR PHASES FOR GOLD THE ABOLITION OF BRETTON WOOD DEMONETIZED GOLD 1975 – 1999 The Islamic Revolution in Iran, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the oil shock - Inflation The price of gold moves from 35 to 800 dollars an ounce within a few years. Volatile prices andmitigated trends led to a drop in the price of gold towards 300 in 1982. Subsequently the pricerecovered and gold reached USD 500 in 1983, to again decline to 300 in 1985 to reach USD 500 byon more time in 1987 The market went through a long and painful period of declining prices marked by multiples andunpredictable gold sales by the official sector the central banks The price below USD 300 level to 252 $/oz, Summer 1999 MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 9
  10. 10. THE 3 MAJOR PHASES FOR GOLD DEMONETIZED GOLD 1975 – 1999MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 10
  11. 11. THE 3 MAJOR PHASES FOR GOLD YEARS OF TERROR AND THE WASHINGTON AGREEMENT SAFE HAVEN GOLD - 1999 - 2006 The European Central Bank member countries plus those of Switzerland, Sweden and The UKannounced to limit their sales to 400 tones annually from September 1999 to September 2004, 2,000tones in all. They also agreed not increasing their gold leasing, nor any positions in futures and options The market reacts immediately the price of gold jumps within a few days above the important USD300 level and moves up gradually to reach USD 430 an ounce by January 2004The confidence is re-established Sales by the official sector is not a dominant factor anymore 26 September 1999: Washington Central Banks Accord announced 11 September 2001: Twin Towers Tragedy in New York 07 October 2001: Afghanistan military invasion 18 March 2003: Iraq military invasion MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 11
  12. 12. THE 3 MAJOR PHASES FOR GOLD GOLD IN USD PER OUNCE SAFE HAVEN GOLD 1999 - 2008MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 12
  13. 13. THE 3 MAJOR PHASES FOR GOLD GOLD IS RE-BORN THE CONFIDENCE COME-BACK The «Washington Agreement» announced in September 1999 allowed the market to regain confidence and to position itself without any fears of new, non-anticipated sales, by the official sectorIN A CONTEXT  of permanent fears over new sweeping terrorist activities  of the relative fragility of the US dollar and the volatile exchange markets  of economic uncertainty in the short term The confidence is re-established allowing a durable recovery in the price of gold in the medium-term MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 13
  14. 14. THE 3 MAJOR PHASES FOR GOLD THE CREDIT CRUNCH AND CRISIS REMONETIZED GOLD? – 2009  February 2007 – HSBC writes-down subprime by 10.5 BN  End of 2007 – Merrill Lynch’s and Citigroup’s CEOs resign  Profits at the US depository institutions decline 98%  Gold does not yet react – markets focused on securing assets  Funds forced to close positions – mainly in commoditiesMKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 14
  15. 15. THE 3 MAJOR PHASES FOR GOLD THE CREDIT CRUNCH AND CRISIS REMONETIZED GOLD? – 2009GOLD: Physical gold in demand in the west reaches record levels Eastern countries take opportunity of higher prices Major geographical shift of Gold from the East to the West Refiners busy 24h a day Physical gold is again the benchmark in the market The private sector is creating its own informal gold standard Investors are not looking anymore at the return on their capital but at the return of their invested capital MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 15
  16. 16. THE 3 MAJOR PHASES FOR GOLD THE CREDIT CRUNCH AND CRISIS REMONETIZED GOLD 2009MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 16
  17. 17. MODERN TIMESMKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 17
  18. 18. THE GLOBAL CRISIS MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 18
  19. 19. GOLD - GOOD DELIVERY PAMP BARS MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 19
  20. 20. FROM THE EAST TO THE WEST MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 20
  21. 21. WHY GOLD?MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 21
  22. 22. GOLD AS AN INVESTMENT ALTERNATIVEWHY INVEST INTO GOLD?  Smart Money vs. Big Money  Gold’s negative correlation with stocks and bonds in the case of a sudden crisis  Gold as a short-term hedge against geopolitical and terrorist crisis  Gold as long-term hedge against economic inflationary and deflationary crisis  Gold as a hedge against a weakening US dollar  Gold as a safe haven value AND  Gold as a rising investment MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 22
  23. 23. GOLD AS AN INVESTMENT ALTERNATIVEWHY INVEST INTO GOLD?  Physical Gold as a Universal value  Physical Gold is a liquid "commodity”, it knows no borders, it is recognized and can be bought and sold throughout the world  Physical Gold is not a liability to anyone else, it only belongs to YOU  Physical Gold a timeless and non-perishable commodity  Physical gold as a hedge to local currency depreciation  Physical Gold has a lot of value for little space  Physical Gold is easily convertible into all major currencies  Physical Gold used as a cover against domestic inflation  Physical Gold is great as a hedge against depreciation of local ccys MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 23
  24. 24. CASE STUDY – GOLD AS A LAST RESORT ASSET MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 24
  25. 25. TRENDS MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 25
  26. 26. MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 26
  27. 27. TRENDS & DEMANDMKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 27
  28. 28. PHYSICAL GOLD Physical Supply Physical demand MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 28
  29. 29. GOLD SUPPLY 2011 Russia Other CIS 211.9 26.9 Europe 134.9 7.8 18.5 388.7 North America 338.9 165.5 Middle East 23.9 299.3 China 371 146.1 West Africa India 379.2 47.3 2.4 57.5 Other APAC 269.2 333.7 South America 582.1 141 South Africa Oceania 194 - 273.5 3.4Key: TonsMine productionGroup: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com MKS CONFIDENTIALGold scrap 29
  30. 30. GOLD DEMAND 2011 Russia Other 61.8 CIS Europe North 25.6 America 602.2 China 222.1 Middle 825.8 West East Africa 388.5 India 15.6 Other 1045 Asia Pacific South 640.4 America 63.3 Oceania South Africa 20.2 27.8 MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.comKey:Tons 30
  31. 31. GOLD PRICEMKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 31
  32. 32. MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 32
  33. 33. HARD CURRENCY “Hard currency in economics, refers to a globally traded currency that is expected to serve as a reliable and stable store of value” MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 33
  34. 34. MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 34
  35. 35. COMMODITY BULL MARKETS HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF This could also be at the end of History, 1908 - 1923 1933 - 1951 1968 - 1982 1999 – OngoingMKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 35
  36. 36. PRECIOUS METALS FORECASTSMKS PM PRICE FORECASTS 2012 – PUBLISHED ON 01 JAN 2012 GOLD HIGH 2012: 1900.00 USD/OZ LOW 2012: 1540.00 USD/OZ AVERAGE 2012: 1720.00 USD/OZ SILVER HIGH 2012: 42.00 USD/OZ LOW 2012: 26.37 USD/OZ AVERAGE 2012: 33.00 USD/OZ PLATINUM HIGH 2012: 1790.00 USD/OZ LOW 2012: 1385.00 USD/OZ AVERAGE 2012: 1550.00 USD/OZ PALLADIUM HIGH 2012: 730.00 USD/OZ LOW 2012: 564.00 USD/OZ AVERAGE 2012: 665.50 USD/OZ MKS Group: PowerPoint Presentation – 2010 CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch / www.mks.ch – info@pamp.com / www.pamp.com 36
  37. 37. Thank You! MKS GROUP FREDERIC PANIZZUTTI fpanizzu@MKS.CHDisclaimer: Although the informationPresentation – 2010 been obtained from and is based upon sources MKS believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee/ its accuracy– and it may be incomplete or condensed. All MKS Group: PowerPoint in this report has CONFIDENTIAL info@mks.ch www.mks.ch info@pamp.com / www.pamp.comopinions and estimates constitute MKS judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for 37the purchase or sale of an investment. This report does not consider or take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of a particular party.

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