DEAD BULL
in the

CHINA
shop

Sentiment at rock bottom
Hedley Widdup, November 2013
Time after time: Mining Cycles
• Mining is capital intensive – access to capital varies
• Price is proportional to liquidi...
Mining Cycle: Lion Clock
ASX Mining IPO’s
• IPO’s test the ability to raise fresh capital for an unknown / unproven company
• Excellent barometer o...
Global Exploration Expenditure
• Exploration expenditure increases through the boom
• First to be cut in the bust

FULL KU...
Large Mining Takeovers
If BIG is GOOD, MORE
must be BETTER

• Paper takeovers – suit growth focus.
• Characterise the peak...
2008-2013: Full Cycle
2011:
2009 – 2011:
Recovery influenced
by stimulus

European Debt
Crisis

1999-2008: Largest Mining ...
2008-2013: Full Cycle

2013
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Dead Bull in the China Shop, Investor Roadshow November 2013

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Keynote presentation given by Hedley Widdup, Manager at Lion Selection Group, at Symposium's Investor Roadshow in Melbourne, November 2013. Hedley Widdup's presentation

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Dead Bull in the China Shop, Investor Roadshow November 2013

  1. 1. DEAD BULL in the CHINA shop Sentiment at rock bottom Hedley Widdup, November 2013
  2. 2. Time after time: Mining Cycles • Mining is capital intensive – access to capital varies • Price is proportional to liquidity 1974 1983 BHP 1988 1999 ASX100 Resources Index ASX Small Resources Index 2008 2013
  3. 3. Mining Cycle: Lion Clock
  4. 4. ASX Mining IPO’s • IPO’s test the ability to raise fresh capital for an unknown / unproven company • Excellent barometer of the boom 2007: Boart Longyear (Drilling company) A$2,700m IPO
  5. 5. Global Exploration Expenditure • Exploration expenditure increases through the boom • First to be cut in the bust FULL KUDOS for this chart goes to it’s creator – Richard Schodde (MinEx Consulting)
  6. 6. Large Mining Takeovers If BIG is GOOD, MORE must be BETTER • Paper takeovers – suit growth focus. • Characterise the peak of the boom 2006 2007 2008 2008: unsuccessful all share takeover of Rio Tinto by BHP Billiton 2009 2010 2011 Cash Cash & Shares Target / Acquirer Shares 2012
  7. 7. 2008-2013: Full Cycle 2011: 2009 – 2011: Recovery influenced by stimulus European Debt Crisis 1999-2008: Largest Mining Boom in living memory 2011-2013: GFC Risk aversion Tough funding for miners Delayed hangover
  8. 8. 2008-2013: Full Cycle 2013

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