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Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services                                                         3 February 2011PMI – Service...
Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services                                             3 February 2011, continuedSilf / Swedban...
Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services                                                  3 February 2011, continuedSilf / Sw...
Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services                                             3 February 2011, continuedSilf/Swedbank’...
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Purchasing Managers' Index - Services

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Purchasing Managers' Index - Services

  1. 1. Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services 3 February 2011PMI – Services drops marginally to 65.9 in January:Service companies continue to expand• The Purchasing Managers’ Index for service companies (PMI – Services) fell from 66.0 in December 2010 to 65.9 in January. This is only a marginal drop compared to the previous month, and the high index level indicates that activities in the private service sector remain strong.• All of the component indices except supplier delivery times increased in January. The most heavily weighted indices in PMI – Services, business volumes and new orders, continued to show strength, rising from already high levels. The index for supplier delivery times fell 3.2 points, but the resulting index level indicates that demand pressure remains high. Demand for new employees also remains strong.• Service companies revised their planned business volumes upward in January. The record high index level of 78.5 indicates that service companies retain a positive outlook for the sector for the next six months.• Service companies’ reporting of suppliers’ intermediate goods prices indicate that these prices have risen in January. The continued positive economic trend in Sweden and rising global intermediate goods prices have likely contributed to increased cost pressure for private service companies. Purchasing Managers Index - Services75706560555045 Seasonally Adjusted Original403530 okt feb jun okt feb jun okt feb jun okt feb jun okt feb jun okt 05 06 07 08 09 10 Magnus Alvesson. Swedbank, Economic Research Department. Phone + 46-8-5859 3341 Administration. Phone +46-8-5859 7740. Fax +46-5859 3540. e-mail ek.sekr@swedbank.se Sebastian Bergfelt. Silf. Phone +46-73-944 6450, professionals@silf.se
  2. 2. Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services 3 February 2011, continuedSilf / Swedbanks Purchasing Mangers Index Service Sector, seasonally adjusted Components of PMI - Service Other indicies Forecast Total index Business Delivery New orders Employment Backlog of orders Prices Planned activity times business activity 2005 oct 59.7 64.9 53.1 63.3 53.3 52.5 54.2 61.1 nov 55.6 61.6 47.3 60.7 47.5 54.5 49.3 68.6 dec 58.7 61.5 53.2 64.2 51.1 60.4 54.3 70.2 2006 jan 59.4 64.8 53.5 60.1 57.1 60.7 45.7 68.8 feb 59.0 65.7 53.0 58.4 57.5 54.7 49.5 62.3 mar 62.5 70.2 53.9 63.5 59.6 63.5 49.3 64.8 apr 57.3 60.8 53.3 59.8 52.4 52.7 52.6 67.1 may 60.1 64.1 51.9 63.7 57.3 57.9 53.8 71.8 jun 66.2 72.4 57.2 70.3 60.4 63.2 58.8 70.0 jul 62.9 65.3 59.9 63.5 61.8 61.9 50.6 66.7 aug 64.6 69.4 54.7 66.8 64.8 61.0 54.8 70.1 sep 61.8 68.7 52.5 65.6 55.7 63.2 55.8 67.0 oct 61.2 67.3 55.0 62.1 58.4 56.1 54.4 67.4 nov 63.9 65.4 61.6 63.2 65.6 60.2 55.6 73.1 dec 67.5 71.7 59.8 68.8 67.8 58.9 53.2 75.6 2007 jan 66.5 71.1 61.1 68.4 63.0 63.8 58.0 74.6 feb 63.1 70.8 60.4 62.9 56.6 61.8 61.5 70.3 mar 59.5 61.0 55.1 61.5 58.6 56.6 56.5 68.8 apr 66.3 73.3 60.1 69.9 57.3 65.0 58.5 66.4 may 60.4 61.2 59.5 61.5 58.3 65.2 59.9 66.7 jun 62.0 62.6 56.9 63.7 63.1 61.6 55.0 63.3 jul 60.0 63.4 61.1 60.8 53.3 60.4 57.6 64.9 aug 57.0 57.8 59.0 55.2 56.9 52.9 58.0 61.0 sep 58.2 59.2 57.2 55.1 63.3 57.3 52.3 62.4 oct 57.1 55.9 56.7 56.4 60.4 53.3 57.0 69.2 nov 60.8 67.0 55.0 61.3 58.0 58.9 61.3 54.8 dec 62.3 66.8 57.1 61.7 62.9 65.0 62.1 60.6 2008 jan 58.1 60.2 52.8 57.4 62.1 56.7 63.4 68.1 feb 56.7 57.3 54.6 58.8 54.6 58.9 62.6 64.4 mar 54.6 54.4 52.7 53.6 58.6 52.4 59.9 71.6 apr 52.9 53.5 49.3 50.0 60.6 53.6 56.7 61.5 may 60.2 67.6 50.5 57.0 66.4 54.8 56.2 64.0 jun 51.9 56.1 49.3 46.6 58.5 44.9 63.5 63.5 jul 53.0 57.2 45.3 49.0 62.2 45.2 65.5 59.6 aug 50.5 52.8 49.6 45.8 56.7 49.0 56.9 60.8 sep 52.1 56.4 47.5 47.0 60.2 38.9 57.7 56.6 oct 42.4 44.1 45.7 35.2 49.7 44.4 57.7 48.3 nov 44.0 43.9 49.7 37.3 50.0 36.0 53.4 42.9 dec 38.3 37.7 39.9 37.2 39.4 37.3 45.2 40.7 2009 jan 35.6 33.5 42.5 36.2 30.5 28.7 48.8 34.6 feb 38.5 37.4 39.1 36.1 43.6 34.9 48.8 41.1 mar 40.8 44.4 41.8 42.2 32.9 39.0 48.9 36.8 apr 40.3 41.4 39.1 40.4 40.1 39.5 43.2 46.2 may 40.2 43.3 42.5 43.1 28.9 37.3 40.6 44.2 jun 41.3 43.6 39.7 45.1 33.2 43.3 34.9 51.1 jul 42.4 44.7 38.1 47.0 35.9 43.0 39.3 54.8 aug 45.6 51.1 40.9 50.8 34.6 47.4 45.2 55.8 sep 48.7 52.8 45.6 55.3 34.9 54.4 48.8 59.1 oct 55.1 62.0 47.2 62.5 41.3 62.7 44.8 61.4 nov 51.4 56.6 47.9 57.0 38.5 57.2 44.4 67.8 dec 47.7 52.5 46.8 50.0 38.4 48.8 52.4 61.7 2010 jan 55.5 59.6 50.9 59.9 47.4 56.7 48.8 62.4 feb 61.3 64.1 54.3 67.8 53.2 61.0 47.8 75.5 mar 61.5 65.5 58.7 63.5 56.0 60.3 56.5 71.9 apr 62.6 66.5 61.1 64.8 55.3 61.6 60.9 73.8 may 58.9 59.4 59.5 60.1 55.7 57.9 62.4 69.2 jun 59.1 61.5 61.7 59.9 52.4 60.5 61.6 68.7 jul 62.8 66.2 61.1 65.7 55.2 63.4 62.2 71.3 aug 63.9 66.1 62.1 68.0 55.8 63.8 61.7 70.5 sep 61.0 59.6 64.3 63.7 54.7 60.3 63.1 73.8 oct 63.8 65.1 61.7 67.3 57.9 61.5 60.0 76.6 nov 64.2 65.1 58.8 67.9 62.1 64.1 65.6 78.1 dec 66.0 69.6 64.6 66.1 62.8 61.0 63.6 77.3 2011 jan 65.9 70.9 61.4 66.7 62.9 65.2 67.3 78.5 2 (4)
  3. 3. Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services 3 February 2011, continuedSilf / Swedbanks Purchasing Mangers Index Service Sector, original Components of PMI - Service Other indicies Forecast Total index Business Delivery New orders Employment Backlog of orders Prices Planned activity times business activity 2005 oct 59.3 64.6 54.2 62.5 52.1 51.4 52.8 59.7 nov 53.8 60.3 47.6 57.3 46.0 50.8 46.0 65.1 dec 54.8 57.1 50.8 60.3 46.0 57.9 50.0 65.9 2006 jan 53.7 57.0 50.8 53.9 52.3 54.0 46.9 65.6 feb 57.5 63.8 52.6 57.8 54.3 56.9 49.1 63.2 mar 63.6 72.6 51.2 66.7 59.5 66.7 48.8 65.5 apr 59.6 63.6 52.7 63.6 54.6 55.6 53.6 70.9 may 63.6 69.2 52.9 67.3 60.6 62.5 56.7 76.0 jun 72.3 78.8 61.0 76.8 67.5 68.3 61.0 73.8 jul 58.9 58.1 62.8 55.8 61.6 54.7 52.3 67.4 aug 66.5 71.6 53.4 69.3 68.2 63.6 54.5 69.3 sep 64.0 72.6 53.5 68.6 55.8 64.0 57.0 66.3 okt 60.8 67.0 56.1 61.2 57.1 55.0 53.0 66.0 nov 62.2 64.1 62.0 59.8 64.1 56.5 52.2 69.6 dec 63.6 67.4 57.4 64.9 62.8 56.4 48.9 71.3 2007 jan 60.9 63.3 58.3 62.2 58.2 57.1 59.2 71.4 feb 61.7 68.9 60.0 62.2 53.3 64.0 61.1 71.1 mar 60.7 63.4 52.4 64.6 58.5 59.8 56.1 69.5 apr 68.7 76.2 59.5 73.8 59.5 67.9 59.5 70.2 may 63.8 66.3 60.5 65.1 61.6 69.8 62.8 70.9 jun 68.0 69.0 60.7 70.2 70.2 66.7 57.1 67.1 jul 56.1 56.3 64.1 53.1 53.1 53.1 59.4 65.6 aug 58.8 60.0 57.8 57.8 60.2 55.6 57.8 60.2 sep 60.4 63.1 58.1 58.1 63.4 58.1 53.5 61.6 oct 56.7 55.6 57.8 55.6 59.1 52.2 55.6 67.8 nov 59.1 65.8 55.3 57.9 56.6 55.3 57.9 51.3 dec 58.4 62.5 54.7 57.8 57.8 62.5 57.8 56.3 2008 jan 52.5 52.4 50.0 51.2 57.3 50.0 64.6 65.0 feb 55.3 55.4 54.2 58.1 51.4 61.1 62.2 65.3 mar 55.8 56.8 50.0 56.8 58.6 55.6 59.5 72.2 apr 55.3 56.4 48.7 53.8 62.8 56.4 57.7 65.4 may 63.6 72.7 51.5 60.6 69.7 59.4 59.1 68.2 jun 58.0 62.5 53.1 53.1 65.6 50.0 65.6 67.2 jul 49.0 50.0 48.3 41.4 62.1 37.9 67.2 60.3 aug 52.3 55.0 48.3 48.3 60.0 51.7 56.7 60.0 sep 54.3 60.3 48.5 50.0 60.3 39.7 58.8 55.9 oct 42.0 43.8 46.8 34.4 48.4 43.3 56.3 46.9 nov 42.2 42.6 50.0 33.8 48.5 32.4 50.0 39.4 dec 34.4 33.3 37.5 33.3 34.4 34.8 40.9 36.4 2009 jan 30.0 25.7 39.7 30.0 25.7 22.1 50.0 31.4 feb 37.1 35.5 38.7 35.5 40.3 37.1 48.4 41.9 mar 41.9 46.8 39.1 45.3 32.8 42.2 48.4 37.5 apr 42.7 44.2 38.5 44.2 42.3 42.3 44.2 50.0 may 43.6 48.4 43.5 46.8 32.3 41.9 43.5 48.4 jun 47.3 50.0 43.5 51.6 40.3 48.4 37.1 54.8 jul 38.5 37.5 41.1 39.3 35.7 35.7 41.1 55.6 aug 47.5 53.3 39.7 53.3 37.9 50.0 45.0 55.0 sep 50.9 56.7 46.6 58.3 35.0 55.2 50.0 58.3 oct 54.7 61.7 48.3 61.7 40.0 61.7 43.3 60.0 nov 49.6 55.4 48.2 53.6 37.0 53.6 41.1 64.3 dec 43.7 48.1 44.4 46.2 33.3 46.3 48.1 57.4 2010 jan 49.9 51.9 48.1 53.7 42.6 50.0 50.0 59.3 feb 59.8 62.2 53.9 67.1 50.0 63.2 47.4 76.3 mar 62.7 67.9 56.0 66.7 56.0 63.4 56.1 72.6 apr 65.0 69.4 60.4 68.7 57.5 64.4 61.9 77.6 may 62.3 64.5 60.5 63.7 59.0 62.5 65.3 73.4 jun 65.2 67.9 65.5 66.4 59.5 65.5 63.8 72.4 jul 58.9 59.0 64.0 58.0 55.0 56.1 64.0 72.0 aug 65.8 68.3 60.8 70.5 59.2 66.4 61.5 69.7 sep 63.2 63.5 65.3 66.7 54.8 61.1 64.3 73.0 oct 63.4 64.8 62.8 66.5 56.6 60.4 58.6 75.2 nov 62.5 63.8 59.1 64.4 60.7 60.5 62.2 74.6 dec 62.1 65.3 62.2 62.2 57.7 58.5 59.3 73.0 2011 jan 60.3 63.1 58.6 60.5 58.1 58.5 68.5 75.4 3 (4)
  4. 4. Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services 3 February 2011, continuedSilf/Swedbank’sPurchasing Managers’ Index – Services- objectives and methodologyHistory Silf and Swedbank AB publ. made the first joint – internal – calculation of the “Purchasing Managers’ Index” for the service sector of the four indexes (PMI) during 2005. The model for PMI – Services is the U.S. based Non-Manufacturing Index and the Swedish PMI, which has been published since November 1994Participants About 200 purchasing managers in the service sector.Publication Third weekday of each month, 8:30 am.Analysis Period Comparison with previous month.Compositionof PMI – Services (%) New orders (within the company) 35 Business activity (within the company) 25 Employment (within the company) 20 Suppliers’ Delivery Times 20Other leading indicators(not included in PMI – Services) Backlog of Orders Suppliers’ intermediate goods prices Planned business activity next six monthsObjective Quick economic indicator Simple statistics Statistics with relatively short publication intervals Constant contact with a well-informed professional groupCalculation According to “diffusion index”. Positive changes are noted in percent for the four sub indexes. The percentage of unchanged replies, multiplied by 0.5, is added to this figure. Then the different sub indexes are weighted as described above to reach the total index. The Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services does not indicate activity levels but rather monthly changes in activity in the service sector.“Break-even” The dividing line between growth and decline – in line with US praxis – has been drawn at a total index of 50. However, this boundary or “neutral growth zone” should not be applied excessively. Rather, “Break-even” at 50 indicates a target value. We believe we have used reliable sources and procedures to generate and analyze the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI – Services). However, Swedbank AB (publ) and SILF (earlier Organisationen för Inköp och Logistik, /I&L/ – The Organization for Purchasing and Logistics) cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the analyses and cannot be responsible for any errors or omissions in the basic data or processing thereof. The reader should base any decisions on other background material as well. Swedbank AB (publ), SILF. their employees, and other coworkers accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss or injury of any kind arising from any errors or omissions in the analyses presented in the Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services. 4 (4)

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