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Purchasing Managers' Index March 2012

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Purchasing Managers' Index March 2012: PMI drops to 50.2 in March – no clear recovery yet for Swedish industry

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Purchasing Managers' Index March 2012

  1. 1. Purchasing Managers’ Index April 2, 2012PMI drops to 50.2 in March – no clear recovery yet forSwedish industry The PMI dropped marginally from 50.3 in February to 50.2 in March. The index level is thus hovering around the 50 mark – the boundary between economic growth and contraction – for the second consecutive month. Though the recovery in the PMI has slowed down, the industrial economy continues to grow, which is clear from the 1.9 point increase in the PMI from the final quarter of 2011 to the first quarter of 2012. The component index for production contributed most to the drop in the PMI, followed by supplier delivery times. Meanwhile, the indices for new orders, employment, and inventories all made positive contributions. Industrial companies’ production plans for the next six months remain expansive, despite a minor downshift in March compared to the previous month. The index for commodity and intermediate goods prices climbed for the third consecutive month, reaching 55.3 in March, which indicates rising price pressure from producers. That said, this is significantly lower than what we saw one year ago, when the index was above the 70 mark for four consecutive months.75 Purchasing Managers Index70 PMI (Purchasing Managers’65 Index)60 Seasonally adjusted 2012 Mar. 50.255 Feb. 50.350 Jan. 51.4 2011 Dec. 48.945 Nov. 47.6 Oct. 49.840 Unadjusted Sep. 48.1 Seasonally adjusted Aug. 48.735 Jul. 50.130 Jun. 52.9 May 56.125 Apr. 59.8 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 11 12 Mar. 58.6 Next publication of Purchasing Managers’ Index: Wednesday, May 2, 2012 apr 64,0 Jörgen Kennemar, Swedbank, Economic Research Department, +46 (0)8-5859 7730 Administration, +46 (0)8-5859 7740, ek.sekr@swedbank.se Sebastian Bergfelt, Silf, +46 (0)73-944 6450, professionals@silf.se 1 (4)
  2. 2. Silf/Swedbanks’ Purchasing Managers’ Index. seasonally adjusted PMI Components of PMI Other indices Forecast Total New Produc- Employ- Delivery Export Domestic Back-log Planned Index orders tion ment times Inventories orders orders of orders Prices Import Production2008 Dec 32.7 26.1 31.0 33.5 28.6 38.9 26.3 23.3 25.7 27.9 32.3 26.32009 Jan 33.8 29.0 33.3 32.1 30.3 41.8 34.2 27.9 25.9 29.1 35.5 32.9 Feb 33.9 28.8 34.0 31.0 28.4 36.6 29.7 30.5 29.7 30.4 33.5 35.8 Mar 36.7 35.1 38.8 31.1 28.0 39.6 39.7 35.5 30.8 27.7 38.5 38.2 Apr 38.8 41.5 39.4 28.3 29.6 35.9 45.3 37.7 39.7 30.6 38.8 42.4 May 43.7 46.4 47.4 31.1 34.2 33.5 47.5 44.1 42.8 32.7 41.0 47.3 Jun 50.5 54.7 55.8 36.0 42.4 34.0 54.4 49.2 47.4 43.3 47.3 55.2 Jul 54.3 60.5 61.0 40.3 44.4 38.4 56.4 58.1 54.1 46.9 51.0 59.1 Aug 52.4 57.8 56.1 40.6 46.4 40.4 61.1 50.1 54.3 52.6 50.7 61.7 Sep 55.9 59.2 60.5 45.0 53.7 40.6 61.1 55.0 54.0 54.5 55.7 63.3 Oct 56.7 60.8 61.7 43.8 56.2 41.6 60.7 55.8 58.9 56.7 55.8 62.2 Nov 56.0 57.9 59.0 48.7 55.0 41.3 59.7 53.6 53.6 59.8 57.0 62.2 Dec 58.2 63.7 59.7 49.5 56.3 42.7 58.1 66.3 56.6 57.3 59.0 67.42010 Jan 61.7 66.8 70.2 49.6 61.5 48.3 62.3 64.8 62.6 61.2 61.3 69.5 Feb 61.5 67.5 65.3 55.0 61.4 53.6 62.7 63.6 64.2 61.3 59.7 68.1 Mar 61.1 63.8 63.7 54.9 67.0 50.2 62.3 58.9 60.6 65.7 62.3 69.6 Apr 64.0 68.1 66.3 56.6 68.3 46.0 64.6 63.2 62.5 75.6 60.3 77.5 May 66.0 68.8 71.0 60.1 71.5 50.7 62.6 64.1 64.3 71.0 59.9 73.0 Jun 62.4 61.1 66.8 60.3 69.2 50.4 57.4 60.1 60.9 71.1 59.5 73.1 Jul 64.2 67.3 72.2 56.3 66.4 51.4 61.4 63.2 63.4 70.9 60.9 72.0 Aug 60.6 61.8 61.9 60.5 64.5 52.0 57.4 58.7 59.7 68.5 56.1 72.4 Sep 63.3 65.8 67.4 60.3 66.3 52.9 61.4 62.9 62.2 71.1 58.6 70.8 Oct 61.8 63.0 63.5 59.0 66.8 47.9 61.6 58.2 61.7 66.4 59.3 72.4 Nov 61.3 60.4 64.2 60.2 67.2 50.2 58.9 56.3 58.2 70.8 61.4 72.5 Dec 60.2 63.6 62.8 57.1 64.5 55.5 60.5 63.6 59.5 71.9 59.7 74.02011 Jan 61.5 64.2 64.9 57.7 64.6 51.9 61.9 62.1 60.2 77.1 58.6 70.9 Feb 60.9 59.5 65.0 61.1 67.2 54.4 58.8 56.3 58.0 77.1 60.2 71.0 Mar 58.6 56.1 61.4 58.3 66.0 52.0 54.7 54.0 54.3 73.8 58.9 71.6 Apr 59.8 61.5 61.9 57.7 65.1 54.6 58.3 56.9 57.3 74.5 58.5 70.5 May 56.1 55.4 59.8 54.4 61.0 55.6 52.8 56.4 55.3 63.5 56.2 69.1 Jun 52.9 52.3 54.0 51.3 58.1 51.4 52.5 48.8 51.0 60.5 52.2 64.5 Jul 50.1 45.4 49.4 53.7 55.4 50.1 46.9 43.4 49.1 51.5 50.4 63.1 Aug 48.7 47.0 48.6 50.9 49.1 51.5 48.0 42.3 47.9 47.4 48.5 55.8 Sep 48.1 46.5 48.9 50.0 47.5 52.0 48.3 46.2 47.0 47.0 45.8 53.8 Oct 49.8 50.5 48.2 50.7 47.8 47.1 48.9 49.1 48.9 39.9 46.8 53.6 Nov 47.6 47.1 46.2 48.3 45.6 46.0 47.5 46.1 45.1 42.6 44.5 51.6 Dec 48.9 47.0 49.2 49.5 49.9 48.3 48.7 45.1 46.4 42.6 46.5 59.32012 Jan 51.4 52.0 52.9 48.0 51.0 47.0 49.9 49.0 50.6 50.3 50.3 56.2 Feb 50.3 49.5 51.9 48.3 52.6 51.2 48.7 48.5 48.0 52.5 50.6 57.7 Mar 50.2 50.5 48.6 49.5 49.3 43.7 50.1 48.6 48.6 55.3 47.9 56.5 2 (4)
  3. 3. Silf/Swedbanks’ Purchasing Managers’ Index PMI Components of PMI Other indices Forecast Total New- Produc- Employ- Delivery Export Domestic Back-log Planned Index orders tion ment times Inventories orders orders of orders Prices Import Production2008 Dec 28.6 20.2 24.8 30.6 24.6 35.1 21.5 17.9 19.9 22.9 28.9 24.32009 Jan 31.7 27.6 30.5 29.4 26.3 40.1 34.0 25.2 24.7 26.9 34.0 33.9 Feb 34.8 32.0 35.3 29.9 26.3 35.2 33.1 32.1 32.5 29.7 33.7 38.2 Mar 38.3 38.7 42.1 30.5 27.5 40.5 42.8 37.5 34.2 28.2 40.6 40.7 Apr 41.1 44.8 43.2 29.7 30.6 36.8 47.8 40.4 42.6 34.1 40.6 45.1 May 45.8 49.0 50.3 33.1 36.5 35.3 49.6 46.6 45.9 36.5 43.2 48.3 Jun 53.9 59.4 60.8 39.1 45.5 37.3 58.3 53.5 50.3 45.1 50.0 54.6 Jul 50.7 55.7 51.3 40.8 46.9 40.7 53.5 53.6 53.1 47.4 47.3 59.2 Aug 56.2 62.9 62.9 41.9 49.3 41.5 64.6 55.3 60.2 54.5 53.9 64.7 Sep 57.7 59.9 63.6 46.7 56.6 40.4 61.2 57.1 54.0 57.0 57.8 62.9 Oct 56.1 58.6 61.1 43.6 57.2 40.4 58.1 54.7 55.0 56.8 54.7 59.6 Nov 53.9 53.8 56.1 48.1 53.5 39.3 56.1 50.8 48.5 56.9 55.4 59.5 Dec 54.2 57.9 53.5 47.2 52.8 39.3 61.6 52.8 50.8 52.8 56.0 65.72010 Jan 59.7 65.4 67.7 47.2 57.9 49.2 61.7 62.3 61.5 59.4 60.1 70.6 Feb 62.2 70.4 66.3 54.3 59.4 52.9 65.5 65.0 66.9 60.6 59.8 70.2 Mar 62.4 66.7 66.4 54.5 66.6 51.4 64.8 60.3 63.4 66.1 64.2 71.6 Apr 66.0 70.9 69.6 58.0 69.2 46.8 66.6 65.4 64.9 79.3 61.7 79.9 May 67.8 70.8 73.6 62.1 73.6 52.5 64.0 66.1 66.9 74.4 61.6 73.4 Jun 65.3 64.9 71.2 63.2 71.8 53.6 60.4 63.7 63.2 72.5 61.6 72.0 Jul 60.3 62.1 62.4 56.3 68.2 53.6 58.0 58.4 62.1 70.8 56.8 71.6 Aug 63.9 66.3 68.0 61.5 66.7 53.0 60.4 63.4 65.1 69.7 58.7 75.0 Sep 64.8 66.2 70.2 61.7 68.7 52.6 61.4 64.9 61.9 73.2 60.3 70.0 Oct 60.9 60.5 62.5 58.4 67.3 46.3 58.9 56.6 57.6 65.8 57.9 69.5 Nov 58.9 55.9 61.0 59.4 65.3 47.9 55.2 53.1 52.8 67.6 59.7 69.6 Dec 56.0 57.6 56.2 54.3 60.5 52.1 55.9 58.3 53.4 67.2 56.6 72.22011 Jan 59.4 62.7 62.3 54.9 60.6 50.7 61.5 59.6 59.0 75.3 57.3 71.7 Feb 61.5 62.2 65.9 60.3 65.0 53.7 61.6 57.4 60.5 76.4 60.3 72.8 Mar 59.6 58.6 63.9 57.6 65.4 53.1 56.9 55.1 56.8 74.0 60.8 73.4 Apr 61.7 64.3 65.0 58.9 65.8 55.4 60.3 59.0 59.6 78.1 59.9 72.8 May 57.7 57.3 62.3 56.1 62.9 57.5 54.0 58.4 57.8 66.2 57.8 69.4 Jun 55.6 56.1 58.1 54.1 59.9 54.8 55.8 52.4 53.7 61.8 54.0 63.1 Jul 45.8 39.7 39.2 53.5 56.9 52.0 43.1 38.1 47.5 50.5 46.0 62.4 Aug 51.7 51.3 54.4 51.7 50.7 52.4 50.7 46.6 53.0 47.7 50.7 57.8 Sep 49.4 46.8 51.6 51.3 49.4 51.6 48.1 48.1 46.5 48.4 47.1 52.5 Oct 48.9 48.1 47.1 50.0 48.1 45.1 46.2 47.7 44.9 38.5 45.2 50.3 Nov 45.2 42.6 42.9 47.4 43.5 43.4 43.8 42.9 39.6 39.0 42.6 48.4 Dec 44.8 41.2 42.8 46.7 46.0 44.8 44.2 39.9 40.4 37.7 43.4 57.72012 Jan 49.6 51.0 50.7 45.2 47.3 45.5 49.7 46.9 49.7 49.0 49.3 57.2 Feb 51.1 52.4 53.1 47.6 50.7 50.7 51.7 50.0 50.7 52.5 51.0 59.8 Mar 51.5 53.3 51.3 49.0 49.0 44.6 52.6 50.0 51.3 56.3 50.0 58.6 3 (4)
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