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Meeting local and global climate goals

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Sustainability Connect, 2016

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Meeting local and global climate goals

  1. 1. may 9.2016 Noelle Eckley Selin Assoc. Professor, IDSS & EAPS Ron Prinn Director & Prof, Center for Global Change Science Steven Lanou Deputy Director, Office of Sustainability Joe Higgins Director, Infrastructure Business Ops, Office of Exec. VP & Treasurer 32 percent and beyond: MIT’s role in meeting local and global climate goals
  2. 2. may 9.2016 Noelle Eckley Selin Assoc. Professor, IDSS & EAPS 32 percent and beyond: MIT’s role in meeting local and global climate goals
  3. 3. may 9.2016 Ron Prinn Director & Prof, Center for Global Change Science 32 percent and beyond: MIT’s role in meeting local and global climate goals
  4. 4. DEPLETION OF ARCTIC SUMMER SEA ICE Replacing reflecting with absorbing surface. New RECORD LOW in Sept 2012 INSTABILITY OF GREENLAND & WEST ANTARCTIC ICE SHEETS 7+5=12 meters of potential sea-level rise (Eemian sea level rise = 5-10 meters) INSTABILITY OF ARCTIC TUNDRA & PERMAFROST About 1670 billion tons of carbon stored in Arctic tundra & frozen soils; equivalent to >200 times current anthropogenic emissions (Tarnocai, GBC, 2009) DELETERIOUS INCREASES OF OCEANIC ACIDITY pH drop exceeding 0.5 (>875 ppm CO2) could decimate calcareous phytoplankton INCREASING DESTRUCTIVENESS OF TYPHOONS/HURRICANES Increased 2-3 times post-1960 and correlated with sea-surface warming (Emanuel, Sci., 2005; Kossin et al, GRL, 2007) DEEP OCEAN CARBON & HEAT SINK SLOWED BY DECREASED SEA ICE & INCREASED FRESH WATER INPUTS INTO POLAR SEAS e.g. collapse if CO2 >620 ppm & CLIMATE SENSITIVITY >3.5oC (Scott et al, 2008) SHIFTING CLIMATE ZONES Maximum warming & % precipitation increase in polar regions More arid sub-tropics & lower mid-latitudes (IPCC, 2013) LOWERING RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: THE GREENHOUSE GAMBLE and THE CHALLENGE of 2OC Ron Prinn, SustainabilityConnect, MIT, May 9, 2016
  5. 5. TO ESTIMATE ODDS OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE, WE USE THE MIT INTEGRATED GLOBAL SYSTEM MODEL (IGSM) THAT COUPLES HUMAN (ECONOMIC) SYSTEM & EARTH (ENVIRONMENTAL) SYSTEM *globalchange.mit.edu/research/IGSM TO FORECAST PROBABILITY For each policy choice, we do 400 IGSM runs (1750-2100) with different but equally probable assumptions about uncertain parameters and structures in the IGSM HUMAN SYSTEM IGSM ATTRIBUTES: (1) ALL MAJOR NATIONAL ECONOMIES AND TRADING BETWEEN THEM (2) DETAILED ENERGY AND NON- ENERGY SECTOR TREATMENTS (3) ALL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY NATION & SECTOR (4) GREENHOUSE GAS & AIR POLLUTANT CHEMICAL CYCLES (5) CLIMATE RESPONSE TO GREENHOUSE GASES (6) IMPACTS OF CLIMATE & AIR POLLUTION CHANGE ON GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
  6. 6. COMPARED WITH NO POLICY What would we buy with STABILIZATION at 660 ppm-equivalent of CO2? A NEW WHEEL WITH LOWER ODDS OF EXTREMES THE “GREENHOUSE GAMBLE” THE VALUE OF CLIMATE POLICY UNDER UNCERTAINTY IS TO LOWER THE RISK USING IGSM, WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF GLOBAL AVERAGE SURFACE AIR WARMING from 1990 (1981-2000) to 2095 (2091-2100) EXCEEDING VARIOUS LEVELS, WITHOUT GREENHOUSE GAS STABILIZATION (median 1330 ppm-equiv. CO2) & WITH STABILIZATION (median 660 ppm-equiv. CO2)? Currently at 490 ppm-equiv. CO2. (Ref: Sokolov et al, J. Clim. 2009; Webster et al, Clim. Change, 2012)
  7. 7. WE ARE CURRENTLY GAMBLING OUR FUTURE CLIMATE ON THE LEFT HAND WHEEL. THE CHALLENGE IS TO MOVE TO A MUCH LESS RISKY WHEEL LIKE THE RIGHT HAND ONE. BUT EVEN WITH THE RIGHT HAND WHEEL THERE IS 80% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 2OC ABOVE 1990, AND 97% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 2OC ABOVE PREINDUSTRIAL
  8. 8. Sea level rise is an exemplar of the risks to be avoided. The record of past temperatures and sea levels deduced from polar ice cores and other data shows that the last time polar temperatures went above about 4°C over 1875 levels (116,000 to 129,000 years ago), global sea levels were 5-10 meters (16-32 feet) higher than present (IPCC, WG1, 2013). This sea level rise indicates melting of much of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets. HOW CAN WE KEEP GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE INCREASES TO BE LESS THAN 2OC (3.6OF) ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL LEVELS? There are now compelling reasons to regard a warming of about 2°C (3.6 °F) between preindustrial (1875) and 2100 as a threshold, above which the damages globally to human and natural systems due to climate change begin to become economically and ethically less and less tenable (IPCC, WG1, 2013) IT WILL NOT BE EASY. WE ARE ALREADY ABOUT 1OC ABOVE PREINDUSTRIAL. Due to amplification of polar warming, a polar temperature 4°C over preindustrial corresponds to a global average temperature of about 2°C over preindustrial. THE 2OC CHALLENGE
  9. 9. MEETING THE CHALLENGE OF 2 DEGREES CENTIGRADE A proposal from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change The global average temperature has increased by almost 0.9°C (1.6°F) between 1875 and 2014. The evidence is now very compelling that most of this increase is due to human activity, especially activity that produces carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and soot. Also, there are now compelling reasons to regard a warming of about 2°C (3.6 °F) between 1875 and 2100 as a threshold, above which the damages globally to human and natural systems due to climate change begin to become economically and ethically less and less tenable, and damages above 3°C warming are certainly untenable. The uncertainties in climate projections mean that we must think in terms of the probability, not certainty, of reaching these thresholds. Hence, a strong case can be made for keeping the warming below this 2°C threshold with 50% probability and below 3°C with 90% probability, given our current understanding of uncertainties in earth system response to greenhouse gases. The long lifetime of man-made carbon dioxide implies that net anthropogenic emissions must decrease substantially by 2050 and eventually become zero to avoid 2°C in the long-term. Achieving this reduction will require a radical transformation in energy use, energy supply, land use, agricultural practices, waste management, and other industrial processes. While a variety of technologies exist to make this transformation, their costs generally need to be lowered, some may present other environmental trade-offs, and most are unproven at the global scale of deployment required. While improvements in technologies are needed, to have a hope of keeping below the 2°C threshold with some confidence, immediate action is also needed by all major emitting nations. Finally, the sooner the uncertainties in climate projections are A PLAN FOR ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE, President Rafael Reif et al, October 21, 2015
  10. 10.  After several years of research, estimates of the cost of Carbon Capture & Sequestration (CCS) have risen substantially.  Entry of China and other countries into the Nuclear Power Sector has lowered costs and increased the future viability of Nuclear at least in Developing Countries.  Current & projected costs of solar power (manufacture and installation) have steadily decreased, and to a lesser extent of wind power, but intermittency remains a challenge for both.  Expectations for affordable biofuels (cellulosic in particular) and to a lesser extent biomass electricity have grown. SOME RECENT TRENDS IN THE VIABILITY OF LOW & ZERO EMISSIONS TECHNOLOGIES THAT INFLUENCE OUR RESULTS USE A POLICY THAT PLACES A COST ON EMISSIONS: CARBON PRICE ($/tonCO2-eq) RISES FROM 50, 100 & 150 ($/tonCO2-eq) in 2010 to 1400, 2800 & 4200 ($/tonCO2-eq) in 2100 FOR LOW, MEDIUM & HIGH CLIMATE RESPONSE RESPECTIVELY. A “PRELIMINARY EXPLORATION” OF THE 2OC CHALLENGE USING THE MIT IGSM
  11. 11. 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 Time (years) 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 SurfaceTemperatureChange(C) e5_policy_150_2015_p0_r0 CS=4.5 e5_policy_100_2015_p0_r0 CS=3.0 e5_policy_50_2015_p0_r0 CS=2.0 OBS Global Average Surface Temperature Change (OC) Total Greenhouse Gases (ppm CO2 equivalents) THE 2OC CHALLENGE, contd. CHOOSE COMBINATIONS OF: POLICY COST (CARBON PRICE in 2010 & 2100, in 2010 US$/tonCO2-eq) and LOW, MEDIUM OR HIGH CLIMATE RESPONSE (labeled by 2, 3, 4.5 OC climate sensitivities) THAT ACHIEVE THE TARGET. After 2100 all human GHG emissions decrease at 1%/year. (Prinn, Paltsev, Sokolov & Chen calculations) 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 Time (years) 350.00 400.00 450.00 500.00 550.00 600.00 650.00 700.00 EquivalentCO2concentration(ppm) e5_policy_150_2015_p0_r0 CS=4.5 e5_policy_100_2015_p0_r0 CS=3.0 e5_policy_50_2015_p0_r0 CS=2.0 Low Climate Response Low Price: $50-1400/tonC Medium Climate Response Medium Price: $100-2800/tonC High Climate Response High Price: $150-4200/tonC
  12. 12. PRELIMINARY EXPLORATION COMBINATIONS OF POLICY (CARBON PRICE in 2010 & 2100 in 2010 USA $/tonCO2-eq) & CLIMATE RESPONSE (2, 3, 4.5 OC climate sensitivities) THAT ACHIEVE TARGET. As carbon price rises, the fraction of energy from low/zero emission technologies rises (renewables [wind, solar, biofuel], hydro, nuclear) relative to fossil. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095 EJ renewables hydro nuclear natural gas oil coal 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095 EJ renewables hydro nuclear natural gas oil coal 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095EJ renewables hydro nuclear natural gas oil coal $50-$1400/ton, Low Response $100-$2800/ton, Medium Response $150-$4200/ton, High Response As carbon price rises, total energy use decreases (higher energy efficiency), while energy use decreases in Developed Nations & increases in Developing Nations. Global Total Energy Use (Exa-Joules per year) by Production Technology. Emerging competition for land and water resources (biofuels, biomass electric power, hydropower, forestry, food)
  13. 13.  Keeping future global average surface temperatures less than 2OC above preindustrial is feasible, but the technological, economic and political challenges are very large.  Decrease consumption of energy through increases in energy efficiency: buildings, urban infrastructure, air, land and sea transportation, and transportation systems.  Transform primary energy generation: biofuels, biomass electricity, fossil or biomass with carbon capture & sequestration (CCS), geothermal, hydro, nuclear, solar, waves and wind.  Match energy supply and demand in an energy system with significant intermittency: energy transmission (the grid), secondary fuels (hydrogen) and energy storage (batteries, pumped storage).  Engage technologies to reduce non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions: methane, nitrous oxide, synthetic high technology gases.  Affordable technologies for CCS also provide a “safety valve” allowing large scale biomass electric power generation with CCS to create a gigatons/year carbon sink.  Economic and political barriers motivate adoption of national & global policies that use market mechanisms to minimize costs and revenue neutrality to gain acceptance.  Achieving the 2OC target has significant air pollution reduction co- benefits.  The many difficulties in achieving the 2OC target argue for substantial efforts in adaptation in concert with mitigation. 2OC CHALLENGE SOME PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS REGARDING IT’S ACHIEVEMENT
  14. 14. may 9.2016 Steven Lanou Deputy Director, Office of Sustainability 32 percent and beyond: MIT’s role in meeting local and global climate goals
  15. 15. http://www.ghgprotocol.org/ http://www.ghgprotocol.org/files/ghgp/public/overview-of-scopes.JPG The GHG Protocol categorizes emissions into three broad scopes: 1: All direct GHG emissions. 2: Indirect GHG emissions from consumption of purchased electricity, heat or steam. 3: Other indirect emissions, such as the extraction and production of purchased materials and fuels, transport-related activities in vehicles not owned or controlled by the reporting entity, electricity- related activities (e.g. T&D losses) not covered in Scope 2, outsourced activities, waste disposal, etc. MIT measures the areas indicated on the graph, which is in line with industry best practice for higher education. Scopes measured by MIT in the FY2014 and FY2015 GHG Inventories* *Transmission & distribution losses are not shown on this graph, but are measured by MIT in Scope 3 according to the GHG Protocol GHG Inventory Scopes Measured MIT GHG Inventory Overview – December 2015 MIT Office of Sustainability | sustainability.mit.edu
  16. 16. MIT measures all direct emissions in Scope 1 and all indirect emissions in Scope 2. MIT also currently measures T&D losses and space leased for academic purposes on the Cambridge campus in Scope 3. Because “scopes” are not an easily recognizable set of categories for the general public, MIT, like most of our institutional peers, categorizes emissions into more familiar categories. Which emissions from each scope are included in these categories is shown in the diagram to the left. The three categories used by MIT are Buildings, Fugitive Gases, and Campus Vehicles. GHG Inventory Scopes Measured Building energy use Campus vehicles Fugitive gases Scope 1 Direct Emissions Scope 2 Indirect Emissions Scope 3 Indirect Emissions Purchased electricity Purchased steam & chilled water Leased space Transmission & distribution losses Buildings Fugitive Gases Campus Vehicles MIT measures all of these, and organizes into three large categories: GHG Protocol Scopes MIT GHG Inventory Overview – December 2015 MIT Office of Sustainability | sustainability.mit.edu MIT Emissions Categories
  17. 17. MITIMCO Not Included OFF-CAMPUS SPACES LINCOLN LABORATORY BATES LINEAR ACCELERATOR CENTERHAYSTACK OBSERVATORY The MIT FY2014 and FY2015 inventories include buildings owned and leased for the Cambridge campus. The inventories do not currently include real estate investment holdings managed by MITIMCO, off-campus space, Lincoln Laboratory, Endicott House, Haystack Observatory, Bates Linear Accelerator Center, or the MA Green High Performance Computing Center. GHG Inventory Space Measured MIT OWNED BUILDINGS (FOR ACADEMIC USE) MIT LEASED BUILDINGS (FOR ACADEMIC USE) MA GREEN HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING CENTER ENDICOTT HOUSE MIT GHG Inventory Overview – December 2015 MIT Office of Sustainability | sustainability.mit.edu
  18. 18. FUGITIVE GASES 4,000 MTCO2E 1.9% VEHICLES 1,150 MTCO2E 0.5% LEASED ACADEMIC BUILDINGS 4,101 MTCO2E 1.9% 2014 is the baseline year for MIT emissions reduction. It is the year from which MIT will begin accounting as the Institute works to achieve it’s GHG reduction goal and represents the first year of comprehensive and streamlined data collection. Fugitive gas emissions and fleet vehicle use comprise <3% of emissions, while 98% of emissions stem from operation of labs, offices, and facilities across campus. Buildings GHG Inventory FY14 Inventory Fugitive Gases Campus Vehicles TOTAL 2014 213,428 MTCO2E MIT Owned Buildings, 204,177 , 96% MIT GREENHOUSE GAS EMISISONS INVENTORY 2014 MAIN CATEGORIES METRICTONSCO2E TRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION LOSSES (3,834) LEASED BUILDINGS (ALL SOURCES) (4,101) #2 FUEL OIL (8,069) #6 FUEL OIL (12,557) ELECTRICITY (38,765) NATURAL GAS (140,953) BUILDING FUEL SOURCE DETAIL MTCO2E
  19. 19. FUGITIVE GASES* 4,000 MTCO2E 1.9% VEHICLES* 1,150 MTCO2E 0.6% LEASED ACADEMIC BUILDINGS* 4,101 MTCO2E 2% The 2015 inventory was audited by the MIT Office of Treasury and represents the second year of comprehensive inventory assessment for the Institute. The total change in emissions from 2014 was a reduction of 12,408 MTCO2e, or 6%. * Some data is currently estimated for the 2015 inventory, including leased building space, campus vehicles, and fugitive gases. These categories will be updated at the end of the calendar year, to accurately reflect total emissions for the GHG inventory which is calculated based on fiscal year. GHG Inventory FY15 Inventory TOTAL 2015 201,020 MTCO2E MIT GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY 2015 MAIN CATEGORIES METRICTONSCO2E TRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION LOSSES (3,609) LEASED BUILDINGS (ALL SOURCES) (4,101)* #2 FUEL OIL (6,892) #6 FUEL OIL (14,746) ELECTRICITY (36,494) NATURAL GAS (130,027) BUILDING FUEL SOURCE DETAIL * Estimated. The GHG inventory will be updated in early 2016 when final data for these categories become available MIT Owned Buildings, 191,768 , 95% MTCO2E
  20. 20. MIT GREENHOUSE GAS EMISISONS INVENTORY HISTORICAL EMISSIONS FROM BUILDINGS ONLY 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 METRICTONSCO2E MMBTU ENERGY USE BUILDINGS ONLY ANNUAL EMISSIONS BUILDINGS ONLY PRE-COGEN 1990-1996 COGENERATION 1996-2002 GROWTH 2002-2006 EFFICIENCY 2006-2014 CLIMATE LEADERSHIP 2015 MIT has non-audited greenhouse gas data for buildings dating back to 1990. From this data, emissions can be roughly categorized into four phases of development from 1990 to the present: Pre-Cogeneration, Cogeneration, Campus Growth, and Efficiency. The next phase of MIT’s greenhouse gas management is Climate Leadership, beginning with the first Institutional GHG reduction goal of at least 32% by 2030 below 2014 levels being set in 2015, and the release of the first comprehensive and audited institutional GHG inventories for 2014 and 2015. Note that this graphic shows trends only for emissions from buildings. Beginning in 2014, MIT also measures emissions from fugitive gases and campus vehicle use which are omitted from this figure. AUDITED EMISSIONS DATA STARTS 2014
  21. 21. MIT GREENHOUSE GAS EMISISONS PROJECTION TO MEET CLIMATE GOAL 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2015 2014BASELINE YEAR 2030 GOAL THE NEXT PHASE OF ACTION FOR MIT CREATING A CLIMATE ACTION PLAN TO REACH THE 32 PERCENT REDUCTION GOAL POTENTIAL REDUCTION STRATEGIES
  22. 22. may 9.2016 Joe Higgins Director, Infrastructure Business Ops, Office of Exec. VP & Treasurer 32 percent and beyond: MIT’s role in meeting local and global climate goals
  23. 23. Program Growth 10% 32% Path to exceed 2030 goal 2014 Baseline 204,000 2030 Meet Goal 2030 Exceed Goal Central Utility Plant (CUP) Enhancements Efficiency Gains in Buildings* 10% 8 -12% On-Site Solar Large Scale Off-Site Renewables 15-17% Large Scale Off-Site Renewables or Other 18-20% Metric Tones CO2e 50% 32% and beyond… *Efficiency gains in buildings include ongoing and planned infrastructure renewal, recommissioning, operations improvements, Efficiency Forward Program, green labs and institute-wide sustainability efforts Grow Renewables Production Efficiency Reduce Demand 1 2 3 1-3% 18%
  24. 24. may 9.2016 MIT’s role in meeting local and global climate goals discussion & questions

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