Christopher Borick Presentation - Continental Divide? Canadian and US Views on Energy and Climate Change February 2011

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Chris Borick, Director, Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion The Public Policy Forum - Sustainable Prosperity Survey of Canadian Public Opinion on Climate Changee Change

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Christopher Borick Presentation - Continental Divide? Canadian and US Views on Energy and Climate Change February 2011

  1. 1. Christopher P. BorickMuhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion Presented February 23, 2011, Ottawa, Ontario
  2. 2.  Project began in Fall of 2008 Surveys have been run on 4 occasions: Fall 2008; Fall 2009; Spring 2010; Fall 2010. Partnership of the University of Michigan and Muhlenberg College in Pennsylvania Designed to examine American views on the existence of climate change, determinants of those beliefs, and public support for climate policies at the national and sub-national level.
  3. 3.  916 Completed Telephone Interviews. Sample of both land lines and cell phones in the United States. Interviews conducted November 15th to December 9th, 2010 Margin of Error +/- 3% at 95% Level of Confidence.
  4. 4. YES NO NOT SUREDemocrat 69% 16% 15%Republican 41% 43% 17%Independent 56% 31% 13%Male 53% 30% 18%Female 63% 23% 14%18-29 62% 28% 10%30-44 55% 31% 14%45-64 64% 22% 14%65 or Older 51% 29% 20%College Educated 64% 25% 11%Non-College Educated 50% 28% 23%
  5. 5. Note: Asked only of individuals who indicated abelief that global warming was occurring
  6. 6. Fall 2008 Spring 2010 Fall 2010 Glaciers Melting 19% 22% 17% Warmer Temps 19% 15% 22% Weather Change 18% 15% 17% Scientific Research 9% 14% 10% Gore 2% <1% <1% Documentary Media Coverage 15% 16% 14% Declining Species <1% N/A 1% Human Activity 4% 5% 9% Natural Patterns <1% 3% 2% Not Sure/Other 12% 10% 10%Note: Asked only of individuals who indicated a belief thatglobal warming was occurring
  7. 7. Fall 2008 Spring 2010 Fall 2010Personal Observation 42% 43% 29%Natural Patterns 19% 22% 32%Not enough evidence 11% 13% 7%Media has misled 3% 2% 3%Evidence Disproves 8% 9% 9%No Particular Reason 5% 4% 5%Not Sure/Other 12% 7% 15%Note: Asked only of individuals who indicated that they did notbelieve global warming was occurring.
  8. 8. LEVEL OF AGREEMENTMy state should not adopt anti-global 35%warming policies unless itsneighboring states/provinces also adoptsimilar policies.If the federal government fails to 62%address the issue of global warming itis my state’s responsibility to addressthe problem.My state/province has already felt 44%negative effects from global warming
  9. 9. Federal State Both Neither Not SureCap and Trade 15% 9% 41% 29% 8%Fossil Fuel Taxes 12% 7% 34% 42% 5%Nuclear Power 18% 5% 37% 35% 6%Gas Taxes 8% 9% 26% 54% 3%Renewable 8% 11% 57% 21% 3%ElectricityPortfoliosAutomobile 25% 5% 48% 20% 3%Efficiency
  10. 10. Fall 2008 Fall 2009 Fall 2010$0 22% 29% 41%$1-49 16% 31% 26%$50-99 17% 15% 17%$100-249 13% 13% 7%$250-499 10% 3% 4%$500 or more 7% 2% 2%Not Sure 15% 7% 4%Refused 1% 0% <1%
  11. 11. General View What if it Increases What if it Increases Electric By $15/mo? Electric By $50/mo?
  12. 12. General View What if it Increases Monthly Electric Bill?
  13. 13.  There has been a small rebound in acceptance of global warming among Americans since the Spring of 2010, but overall belief percentages lag behind 2008 levels. Both those who belief global warming is happening and those who do not are significantly affected by personal observations of weather, with shifts occurring in conjunction with meteorological conditions. The public generally sees a role for all levels of American Government in dealing with climate change but has indicated a diminished willingness to pay for such efforts since 2008.
  14. 14.  Only three years ago it was assumed by many that the American public would continue to accept the existence of global warming. Many of the current levels of public opinion in Canada regarding global warming are where US public opinion on this matter was in 2008.

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