2006 e home- The Current Situation of the Networked Home Market


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An overview of international activities in 2006 and recommendations on how to advance the market

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2006 e home- The Current Situation of the Networked Home Market

  1. 1. The Current Situation of the Networked Home Market - Overview of International ActivitiesDr. Susan SchwarzeVP Marketing and Board Member, OSGi AllianceMarketing Director, ProSyst Software
  2. 2. Agenda•  Short introduction of the OSGi Alliance and its technology•  General Overview of the current status and future trends –  North America –  Europe –  Asia•  Recommendations
  3. 3. The OSGi Alliance•  The OSGi Alliance is an open organization –  Established in 1999, members worldwide –  Membership spans many industries –  Voting members treated equally –  Membership information available at www.osgi.org Service Providers Auto Makers Device Manufacturers IT Providers OSGi ISV Alliance Solution Developers Providers Others
  4. 4. OSGi Vision and Technology•  Many devices can run the same applications despite their differences in hardware, capacity and performance –  The dynamic module system for Java™ •  Modular, service-oriented architecture Bundle = service interface Bundle •  Defined interfaces Bundle exported and Bundle (Application) •  Device Interoperability imported by bundles •  Future-proof platform OSGi –  Connectivity, easy upgrade and extension Java VM –  Universal Middleware Operating System Driver Driver Driver •  Deployments worldwide by Fortune 100 companies Hardware
  5. 5. Mass Market Consumer Requests •  Low pricing•  Simplicity•  Safety and security •  Added value –  Remote device control –  Service bundlings –  Future proof solutions •  Design adaptibility
  6. 6. Status quo in the networked home market •  Multi-media content –  Different sources/data, location and access of content –  Traditional content provision over internet does not scale (IPTV)•  “Internet of things” –  Heterogeneous networks and device accesses –  Complex device and network configuration and management –  Isolated service solutions, like Google, Yahoo etc. –  Slow shift to user-centric creation and consumption environment•  Networked home environment –  Monolithic solutions –  Complex user interfaces•  Network infrastructure –  Competing wired and wireless network solutions•  Business Models –  First steps/offers –  Monolithic solutions
  7. 7. Broadband access vs. low networked home rate•  226M broadband users worldwide in 2006 - 170M additional subscribers by 2010•  Networked homes worldwide in 2006 (The Diffusion Group, 05) –  USA 17% (~51M homes) –  Japan 16% (~ 20M homes) –  Germany and Korea: 2% (~ 1,6M and ~1M homes)•  Significant increase in home networks expected –  2004: 35M / 100M installed devices (TDG) –  2008: 97M - 160M / 1bn installed devices (In-Stat,04 vs. TDG,05) –  Germany (38% in 2011; ~ 31M home networks)
  8. 8. The heat is on … "The fight between cable operators and phone companies is heating up as attention turns from the triple-play offering to the quadruple play, a service bundle that includes high-speed data, telephony, TV, and now wireless." (CNET News.com) –  Triple Play totaled $535.0 million in 2005 and is expected to reach $755.6 million in 2012. (Frost)•  Actors –  STB vs. Residential Gateway •  Cable operators and phone companies –  Internet / Web 2.0 •  Content providers, like Google or Yahoo •  SW providers, like Apple or MicroSoft –  P2P •  Content providers, like Warner Bros. or in2movies.de
  9. 9. Global Development - STB and Hybrid Gateway Gerry Kaufhold, In-Stat 2006
  10. 10. Development in North America•  Dominance of cable providers –  High volume of Pay-TV STB and related services –  2009: 36M devices•  Key driver: entertainment –  Convergence of Pay-TV, internet and mobile services, Web 2.0, e-mail, SMS, IM –  2010: 30M entertainment home networks (Parks Associates, 06) •  Home networking goes with broadband –  50 to 60% of broadband customers have home networks (Parks Associates, 06) –  US regulation: The 1996 Telecommunications Act •  Proprietary products (smarthomeusa.com; Cisco et al.) •  US Plug&Play agreements between cable operators and CE manufacturers •  “CableHome” certificate (QoS, DRM, simple navigation) plus triple-play –  Industry collaboration: CABA / IHA (Mealtime pilot; IPTV Phase II) •  Market Volume: –  2008: 33.3M home networks (In-Stat, 04) and 2012: 63.8M home networks (Frost, 06)
  11. 11. Development in Europe•  High competition between the various actors –  First solutions in the market •  White goods, CE, triple-play offers •  Additional interest in energy, e-health and monitoring services –  Open for hybrid STB •  2009: Between 12 and 14M devices each (Pay-TV; Digital Terrestrial, RG) •  Convergence with key driver entertainment –  EC funded projects (6th program “Ambient Intelligence”/ “Enabling Technology”: 3.625bn Euro) •  TEAHA, AMIGO, ePerSpace, MEDIANET etc. •  CENELEC SmartHouse Program (code of practice), ETSI –  Industrial collaboration •  OSGiA, HGI, NEM, DLNA, UPnP, KNX etc. •  Market volume: •  2008: ~ 22M home networks (In-Stat, 04) •  Germany 2010: Euro 13.3bn for home networks in total (Soreon Research, 05)
  12. 12. Development in Asia•  Simple PC networks with broadband access –  Declining pricing, higher data transfer, governmental support, more complex home networks •  First solutions in the market –  White goods, CE, first triple-play projects •  Additional interest in energy, e-health and monitoring services –  Open for hybrid STB •  2009: Pay TV STB and RG devices (19.5M and 18.6M) •  Push factors –  Societal aspects –  Olympic Games 2012•  Market Volume: –  2008: 35.5M home networks (In-Stat, 04) –  2009: US$ 21 bn for home networks (In-Stat, 06)
  13. 13. Development in Asia – Japan & South Korea•  Japan –  Rapid spread of broadband and increasing interest in technology •  ECHONET, DLNA, UOPF, OSGiA, RFID –  First product launches, white goods series based on ECHONET •  Leading Toshiba: Feminity Series: 2500 products since 2002 –  First networked home trials (ICT home) –  Rising interest in entertainment and anticipated export to Chinese market Divergent forecasts: 5M networked homes in 2015 / 30M in 2010•  South Korea –  Up to 90% of the population will have home networks in 2011 (44,1M) –  Rapid spread of broadband and increasing interest in technology •  Web 2.0, OSGiA, DLNA, HNCP, ECHELON, RFID/USN –  Strong interest in entertainment services •  Internet and mobile phones as the main access points - especially for the younger generation –  Strong governmental support for building automation (Dig.Media City/U-Port)
  14. 14. Japan - Next Generation “ICT Home” OSGi Service Aggregation Platform(OSAP)Service Providers External Access B B Bundle PC System Network (FLETS, OCN, B B NGN, etc.) B B Control Audio-visuall B B B System B PI NTT Extension Home Appliance OSGi System Framework Sensor System Telco System Service Gateway B B Center System
  15. 15. South Korea – Digital Media City / U-Port•  Part of Digital Media City –  20-story IT center to open in Seoul by 2007 –  Research and development hub for the international IT industry –  IT center to attract multinational IT enterprises and R&D firms in Seoul by 2007 –  Total office space of 19,140 square meters, •  Designed to offer comprehensive support facilities, incl. a joint manufacturing facility to help save equipment expenses•  U-Port –  Project: KT & City of Busan –  Expectation: US$ 15 bn market and 610,000 jobs by 2010 –  Ubiquitous tracking and management of cargo –  Intelligent traffic control system –  U-Convention Center for visitors
  16. 16. Conclusions•  Emerging market with high revenue forecasts –  Fierce competition, declining pricing, higher data transfer, broader variety of connecting devices, more complex home networks•  Divergent governmental support•  Pay-TV STB in North America vs. hybrid STB in Asia and Europe –  Additional service offerings •  Broadband stimulates home network market –  Key driver entertainment •  Content mobility •  Seamless integration of different sources on heterogeneous devices •  User-centric session based services•  Hurdles to overcome: –  Complexity and heterogenity –  Extended home environments (family federation, variety of lifestyles) –  Safety and Security –  Pricing
  17. 17. RecommendationsFoster development of services/applications and offer service bundling –  Entertainment •  Audio/Video: today still low consumer involvement –  Health Care •  Interaction between hospital/doctor, pharmacy and patient –  Office •  Access of information in different environments using diverse devices •  Foster security and safety –  Protected privacy vs. remote control/administration –  Flexible security mechanisms •  Dependent on scenario and communication partner •  Improve ease-of-use –  Elderly and disabled people –  Mass market
  18. 18. Recommendations•  Flexible solutions that are future-proof –  Modular assembly (HW/SW) instead of monolithic product solutions •  Cost- and time effective development •  Integration of today`s islands –  Universal middleware –  Business concepts•  Regular checkups –  Added value –  Pricing –  Simplicity•  IP flow /Patents –  Establish a joint IP policy for all work products where public funds are used •  Uniform and fair royalty payment system OR •  Code: Apache 2.0 licensing / Specifications: Royalty free declaration
  19. 19. Thank You Dr. Susan Schwarze VP Marketing and Member of the Board mailto:s.schwarze@prosyst.com OSGi Alliance Bishop Ranch 6 2400 Camino Ramon, Ste 375 San Ramon, CA 94583 Phone: +1.925.275.6625 FAX: +1.925.886.3696 www.osgi.org
  20. 20. Future trends•  Multi-media content –  Content mobility –  Seamless integration of different sources on heterogeneous devices •  Open to different network technologies/protocols (abstraction layers)•  “Internet of things” –  Fixed-mobile convergence / networked mobility –  User-centric session-based services –  Multi-provider•  Extended Home environment –  Broader variety of lifestyles –  Family federation –  Uniform and user-friendly interfaces –  Flexible solutions on demand (“roaming”)
  21. 21. Future Trends (ctd.)•  Network infrastructure –  Combination of wired and wireless technologies •  Improved wireless technology (longer service life, scalability, ad-hoc networking) •  Further development of wired technologies (KNX, EIB, X10 etc.) •  Business Models•  Service Payment-Concepts •  Application level •  Preference for renting models •  Monthly fix-price, pay-per-use payment or combination •  Device level •  Preference for one-time payment •  Optional additional service fee –  Broad range of portals •  Service Aggregator vs. third parties –  Variety of gateway solutions •  Residential Gateway(s) and Virtual Gateway(s)