Indonesia's palm oil outlook 2020

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Brief description and illustrative show case on the palm oil outlook.

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Indonesia's palm oil outlook 2020

  1. 1. INDONESIA’S PALM OIL OUTLOOK 2011-2020 Suhardiyoto HaryadiSuhardiyoto Haryadi
  2. 2. INDONESIA’S PALM OIL OUTLOOK 2011-2020 12/6/2010Inonesia's Palm Oil Outlook 2011-20202  Edible Oil Market 3  Rising Global Demand 4  Indonesia’s Production 5  IndonesiaTakes the Lead 6  World Supply and Demand 7  WorldTrade 8  Commodity Boom 9  Indonesia’s Major- Producers 10  Corporate Performance 11  Indonesia’s 20 Richest 12  Promising Global- Economy 13  Price Projection 2011-2020 14  Expansion Areas 15  Controversy and Solution 16  Conclusion: Sustainable Palm Oil 17 TABLE OF CONTENTS
  3. 3. EDIBLE OIL MARKET 12/6/2010 Source: USDA 3 Inonesia's Palm Oil Outlook 2011-2020
  4. 4. RISING GLOBAL DEMAND 12/6/2010 “Indonesian Palm Oil Growth Critical to Global Edible Oil Supply” Source: USDA Commodity Intelligent Report, October 8, 2010 4 Inonesia's Palm Oil Outlook 2011-2020
  5. 5. INDONESIA’S PRODUCTION 12/6/2010 Indonesia’s palm oil production has risen by 13.8 million tons or 192%, while exports have increased 331% over the past 10 years, from 4.3 million tons to 18.4 million tons. 5 Inonesia's Palm Oil Outlook 2011-2020
  6. 6. INDONESIA TAKES THE LEAD 12/6/20106 Inonesia's Palm Oil Outlook 2011-2020
  7. 7. WORLD SUPPLY AND DEMAND Palm Oil Production (000 MT) Palm Oil Consumption (000 MT) 12/6/2010 COUNTRY 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Indonesia 16,730 18,880 20,450 22,090 Malaysia 15,294 17,567 17,259 18,200 Thailand 989 1,273 1,310 1,420 Nigeria 752 812 853 880 Colombia 830 779 758 773 Ecuador 409 417 431 466 World 37,591 42,666 44,262 47,154 COUNTRY 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 India 3,698 4,882 6,565 6,800 China 5,461 5,660 5,917 6,348 EU-27 4,478 4,806 5,592 6,000 Indonesia 3,920 4,362 4,846 5,230 Malaysia 2,132 2,449 2,474 2,540 Pakistan 1,638 1,734 1,792 1,800 Nigeria 1,042 1,219 1,265 1,301 Thailand 700 941 1,161 1,280 US 635 935 917 936 Colombia 467 457 580 748 Egypt 598 486 550 569 Japan 509 550 536 545 Russia 527 690 485 520 Turkey 401 443 388 440 World 37,256 41,325 44,700 47,260 Source: Development Prospects Group The World Bank, 30 December 2009 7 Inonesia's Palm Oil Outlook 2011-2020
  8. 8. WORLD TRADE Export (000 MT) Import (000 MT) 12/6/2010 COUNTRY 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Indonesia 12,465 14,100 16,110 16,840 Malaysia 13,768 15,041 15,990 16,180 PNG 406 385 451 422 Ecuador 180 178 173 189 Thailand 327 399 123 160 World 29,638 32,850 35,480 36,350 COUNTRY 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 China 5,543 5,559 6,297 6,200 India 3,664 5,019 6,875 6,550 EU-27 4,634 5,012 5,790 6,150 Pakistan 1,743 1,769 1,800 1,840 US 692 955 1,036 985 Bangladesh 871 855 832 850 Egypt 716 508 770 660 Iran 419 589 571 610 Japan 516 551 531 550 World 29,366 32,730 35,773 36,280 Source: Development Prospects Group The World Bank, 30 December 2009 8 Inonesia's Palm Oil Outlook 2011-2020
  9. 9. COMMODITY BOOM 12/6/2010 A B C D E F Export of goods (USD billion) MANUFACTURE COMMODITY Commodity Export (USD billion) RENEWABLE RESOURCES NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCES COMMODITY MAKET 1990-2010 A: Early 1990’s Export Boom B: Crisis and Recovery of 1997/98 C: Sluggish Exports D: Commodity Boom  Total exports rose by 120%  Manufacture exports increased 75%  Commodity exports grew by 180%  Renewable commodity growth reflect rapid increase in both volumes and prices. E: Global Crisis 2008/09 F: Current Recovery began in late 2009 Source: IMF Country Report No. 10/285 September 2010 A B C D E F 14 10 8 6 4 2 9 7 5 3 9 Inonesia's Palm Oil Outlook 2011-2020
  10. 10. INDONESIA’S MAJOR PRODUCERS 12/6/2010 STATE-OWNED PLANTATIONS Company PlantedArea Ha CPO Production MT PTPN III 115,470 517,336 PTPNV 114,644 439,445 PTPN IV 128,582 365,081 PTPN II 86,827 236,000 PTPN XIII 79,535 213,774 PTPNVII 55,742 163,762 PTPNVI 45,916 124,888 PTPN XIV 26,296 27,500 PRIVATE PLANTATIONS Company PlantedArea Ha CPO Production MT GoldenAgri 427,253 1,913,654 AstraAgro 264,036 1,082,953 AsianAgri 1) 160,000 1,000,000 Sime Darby 2) 204,237 782,219 IndofoodAgri 307,153 763,000 Sinar Mas 134,478 640,264 First Resources 108,917 368,631 Lonsum 107,870 341,553 Bakrie Sumatra 98,312 211,760 Note: All figures are of end 2009; 1) Pefindo’s estimate; 2) Indonesia’s operations. Source:Company Profiles,Annual Reports 10 Inonesia's Palm Oil Outlook 2011-2020
  11. 11. CORPORATE PERFORMANCE 12/6/2010 Company 2007 2008 2009 2010 3Q Revenue Profit1) Revenue Profit1) Revenue Profit1) Revenue Profit1) Wilmar Int. 2) 16,466 580 29,145 1,530 23,885 1,882 21,289 1,005 GoldenAgri 2) 1,873 1,165 2,986 1,419 2,294 613 2,315 259 Sinar Mas 3) 8,080 989 16,094 1,046 14,201 748 10,689 537 IndoAgri 3) 6,506 994 11,840 1,067 9,040 2,053 6,505 804 AstraAgro 3) 5,961 1,973 8,161 2,631 7,424 1,660 5,721 1,228 Lonsum 3) 2,930 564 3,846 927 3,199 707 2,403 642 First Resources 3) 1,691 627 2,783 1,151 2,276 1,236 1,908 684 Bakrie Sumatra 3) 1,949 206 2,931 173 2,325 252 1,896 245 Notes: 1) Net Profit; 2) in USD million; 3) in IDR billion; Source: Companies’ Reports. 11 Inonesia's Palm Oil Outlook 2011-2020
  12. 12. INDONESIA’S 20 RICHEST 12/6/2010Inonesia's Palm Oil Outlook 2011-202012 Rank Name NetWorth (USD mil) Rank Name NetWorth (USD mil) 1 R. Budi & Michael Hartono 11,000 11 Kiki Barki 1,700 2 Susilo Wonowidjojo 8,000 12 Eddy William Katuari 1,650 3 Eka Tjipta Widjaja 6,000 13 Edwin Soeryadjaya 1,600 4 Martua Sitorus 3,200 14 Boenyamin Setiawan 1,500 5 Anthony Salim 3,000 15 Garibaldi Thohir 1,450 6 Sri Prakash Lohia 2,650 16 Sukanto Tanoto 1,400 7 Low Tuck Kwong 2,600 17 Theodore Rachmat 1,350 8 Peter Sondakh 2,400 18 Chairul Tanjung 1,250 9 Putera Sampoerna 2,300 19 Murdaya Poo 1,150 10 Aburizal Bakrie 2,100 20 Ciliandra Fangiono 1,100 Most of the country’s wealthiest reap their fortune in the renewable resources sector, notably palm oil. Source: Forbes Indonesia 3 December 2010.
  13. 13. PROMISING GLOBAL ECONOMY 12/6/2010 Country 2008 2009 2010 e 2011 f 2012 f World 1.7 -2.1 3.3 3.3 3.5 OECD 0.3 -3.4 2.2 2.3 2.6 Brazil 5.1 -0.2 6.4 4.5 4.1 Russia 5.6 -7.9 4.5 4.8 4.7 India 5.1 7.7 8.2 8.7 8.2 China 9.6 8.7 9.5 8.5 8.2 Indonesia 6.0 4.5 5.9 6.2 6.3 Real GDP Growth (%) Source:WB, Global Economic Outlook 2010 13 Inonesia's Palm Oil Outlook 2011-2020
  14. 14. PRICE PROJECTION 2011-2020 12/6/2010 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Monthly Prices ($/ton) Annual Prices ($/ton) 200 400 600 800 1000 200 500 800 1100 1400 Palm oil prices are expected to average $660 per ton in 2010 and to be slightly higher in 2011. In real terms, however, the 2010-12 average is expected to be two thirds higher in the early 2000s. Source: Development Prospects Group TheWorld Bank, 30 December 2009 Constant 2000 Current (Malaysian) 14 Inonesia's Palm Oil Outlook 2011-2020
  15. 15. EXPANSION AREAS 12/6/2010Inonesia's Palm Oil Outlook 2011-202015 Potential 24.5 million Ha
  16. 16. CONTROVERSY AND SOLUTION 12/6/2010 CONTROVERSY PROPONENTS SOLUTION Saturated fat content Competitors from other vegetable oil industry Joint campaign by government and industry associations Deforestation and biodiversity degradation International interest groups High ConservationValue (HCV) assessment and management Marginalization of local population Local interest groups Social Impact Assessment and CSR programs; and smallholder (plasma) scheme 16 Inonesia's Palm Oil Outlook 2011-2020
  17. 17. SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL 12/6/2010 TERIMA KASIH suhardiyoto@gmail.com 17 Inonesia's Palm Oil Outlook 2011-2020

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