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The Best Practices in Program Portfolio Evaluation - Student Demand

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The Best Practices in Program Portfolio Evaluation - Student Demand

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Our presentation on Student Demand helps you understand how to get and use Google data, Inquiry volumes, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) completions, and geo-spatial analysis to assess demand for your academic programs. Importantly, we explain the weaknesses in each of these datasets, so you can use them safely. As an example, IPEDS completions are a measure of student demand; however, Bachelor's degree completers started school 4-8 years ago, so trends in IPEDS appear years after they have occurred. On the other hand, search data is more current (but has its own issues).

Our presentation on Student Demand helps you understand how to get and use Google data, Inquiry volumes, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) completions, and geo-spatial analysis to assess demand for your academic programs. Importantly, we explain the weaknesses in each of these datasets, so you can use them safely. As an example, IPEDS completions are a measure of student demand; however, Bachelor's degree completers started school 4-8 years ago, so trends in IPEDS appear years after they have occurred. On the other hand, search data is more current (but has its own issues).

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The Best Practices in Program Portfolio Evaluation - Student Demand

  1. 1. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 1Confidential Program Portfolio Design Choosing Which Programs to Start, Stop, Sustain, or Grow February 2017
  2. 2. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 2 Goals for Today’s Session §  The Challenge §  Framework for Evaluating Markets for Programs §  Data Sources, Uses and Limitations §  Defining Your Market §  Integrated Approach Evaluating Demand for academic programs: best practices
  3. 3. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 3 Agenda 1.  The Challenge 2.  A Framework for Evaluating Markets for Programs 3.  Data Sources, Uses, and Limitations 4.  Market Definition 5.  Integrated Approach
  4. 4. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 4 Thousands of Potential Programs… Everyone has a favorite program…
  5. 5. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 5 Hundreds of Possibilities for Data Everyone has a favorite market metric and source of data.
  6. 6. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 6 Dozens of Stakeholders
  7. 7. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 7 Agenda 1.  The Challenge 2.  A Framework for Evaluating Markets for Programs 3.  Data Sources, Uses, and Limitations 4.  Market Definition 5.  Integrated Approach
  8. 8. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 8 Market Evaluation Framework We suggest screening all programs on four market factors. Student Demand Employment Opportunities Strategic Fit Competitive Intensity
  9. 9. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 9 Student Demand Student Demand Employment Opportunities Strategic Fit Competitive Intensity
  10. 10. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 10 Agenda 1.  The Challenge 2.  A Framework for Evaluating Markets for Programs 3.  Data Sources, Uses, and Limitations 4.  Market Definition 5.  Integrated Approach
  11. 11. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 11 Sources GRAY
  12. 12. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 12 Google Google: trends and keyword search volumes.
  13. 13. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 13 Google Trends Source: www.google.com/trends.
  14. 14. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 14 Trends: Limited Detail Medical Assisting Report by City in Pennsylvania
  15. 15. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 15 AdWords: search volume by location. Google AdWords
  16. 16. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 16 AdWords: historical trends by keyword. Student Demand Data: Google AdWords
  17. 17. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 17 Google AdWords: smoothed data. Google Search 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 10,000,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Google Search Volumes Gray Program Keywords1 2015 2016 Source: Google, Gray Analysis. Data from Dec 2015 to Nov 2016. 1. Gray collects Google program search volumes for 20 keywords for 200 CIPs.
  18. 18. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 18 Student Inquiries Student inquiries can create a current view of program size and trends.
  19. 19. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 19 Student Inquiries Sources: Marketing Agencies, Aggregators, Institutional Websites Aggregator Agency
  20. 20. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 20 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Number of Inquiries Inquiries for Program A Denver: All Award Levels 2014 2015 2016 Sample of over 50,000,000 Inquiries: Local, Current, Precise GrayReports: Inquiries GRAY
  21. 21. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 21 US Map of Inquiries
  22. 22. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 22 Drill-Down on a State (FL)
  23. 23. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 23 Student Demand Data: Completions Completions: program size and long-term trends.
  24. 24. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 24 IPEDS Completions IPEDs: completions by location, school, program, and degree level.
  25. 25. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 25 Discussion: interpreting raw data. National Student Demand Metrics: Auto Mechanic (CIP 47.0604) 100,802 202 8,690 9.4% 39,721 -664 National Student Demand for Program X Your Interpretation?
  26. 26. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 26 Raw Numbers? Meaning depends on comparisons to market or institutional data. 100,000Program X 8,690 9.4% 39,721 -664
  27. 27. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 27 Color coding enables understanding (especially for non-quants) Color and Clarity
  28. 28. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 28 Agenda 1.  The Challenge 2.  A Framework for Evaluating Markets for Programs 3.  Data Sources, Uses, and Limitations 4.  Market Definition 5.  Integrated Approach
  29. 29. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 29 Campus A Campus C Campus B Campus D Market Definition: Map Demand Illustrative Data
  30. 30. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 30 Market: focus on the core. Market Definition: Distance Analysis 10% 18% 23% 14% 8% 4% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 1% 7% 28% 51% 66% 74% 78% 81% 83% 86% 89% 91% 93% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 >60 Miles On-Campus Students by Distance from Campus Percent of Total Cumulative Percent of Total Source: Illustrative Analysis of Enrollment by Distance from Campus.
  31. 31. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 31 Core Market Definition
  32. 32. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 32 Agenda 1.  The Challenge 2.  A Framework for Evaluating Markets for Programs 3.  Data Sources, Uses, and Limitations 4.  Market Definition 5.  Integrated Approach
  33. 33. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 33 Integrated, High-Capacity System 10% 18% 23% 14% 8% 4% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 1% 7% 28% 51% 66% 74% 78% 81% 83% 86% 89% 91% 93% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 >60 Miles On-Campus Students by Distance from Campus Percent of Total Cumulative Market Definition Business Intelligence Database Program Evaluation SystemSM Hundreds of Programs GRAY
  34. 34. Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 34 Upcoming Webinars Student Demand Employment Opportunities Decision-Making Process Competition and Degree Fit March 2nd, 2017 2:00 PM EST March 30th, 2017 2:00 PM EST April 27th, 2017 Time: 2:00 PM EST ✔

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