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Future of Engineering and Disruption in Maintenance

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How will future technologies disrupt the maintenance industry?

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Future of Engineering and Disruption in Maintenance

  1. 1. 1 Future of Engineering and Disruption of Maintenance
  2. 2. 2 Past and Present
  3. 3. 3 2.6 million years old Author: Jose-Manuel Benito Alvarez https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Oldowan_tradition_chopper.jpg Oldowan Tool from Tanzania
  4. 4. The Ages 4 Stone 2.6 Million Bronze 3,000 BC Iron 1,000 BC http://www.essential-humanities.net/history-overview/stone- bronze-iron-ages/
  5. 5. Transportation 5 The Cugnot Steam Trolley 1771 First Marcus Cart 1870 First Mass-Produced Car Model T Ford 1908-1927 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_automobile https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Model_T 15,000,000 were sold
  6. 6. Model T Ford cost $850 in 1908 equaling $23,715 in 2018 https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/72/Ford_factory_LaBoca.jpg
  7. 7. 2018 Ford Mustang 7 48 years later… https://www.autoblog.com/buy/2017- Ford-Mustang/safety-features/ And 2018 includes…Air-conditioning, anti- lock brakes, stability control, front, side, overhead, and knee airbags, security system, and 5-star crash rating 1970 2018 % of Change $2,721 $25,680 *8.2% 7-20MPG 21-31MPG 55-300% 120HP 310HP 258% * For an 8.2% increase we get…
  8. 8. “If GM had kept up with technology like the computer industry has, we would all be driving $25 cars that got 1,000 MPG.” - Bill Gates http://www.wussu.com/humour/gm.htm
  9. 9. The Future is Now 9 Model S P100D MSRP: $135,000 Miles: 315 mi, battery only MPGe: 92 city/105 highway Horsepower: 691 http://www.motortrend.com/cars/tesla/model-s/2017/2017-tesla- model-s-p100d-first-test-review/ Model 3 MSRP: $49,000+ Miles: 220 mi, battery only Horsepower: 271
  10. 10. U.S vehicle miles driven vs. fatality rate 10 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016 Vehicle miles (tens of billions) Annual deaths per billion miles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_safety_in_the_United_States #/media/File:USA_annual_VMT_vs_deaths_per_VMT.png
  11. 11. Waymo 11 Google Self—Driving Car •Announced July 2018, Waymo has self-driven 8 million miles, now at a rate of 25K miles/day •Over 7 million miles driven and only 14 accidents •Only 1 accident was Waymo’s fault but no fatalities https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2018/07/26/waymo-has- the-most-autonomous-miles-by-a-lot/#2684e9577ee5 Fun Fact Google’s self-driving car pulled over in 2015 in California for driving too slowly - 24 mph in 35 mph zone; cop was unable to ticket the car.
  12. 12. 12 Evolution of the Computer
  13. 13. First Computers 13 First Mechanical Computer First Electronic Digital Computer First Programmable Computer Charles Babbage 1822 John Atanasoff 1903 Konrad Zuse 1936 https://www.computerhope.com/issues/ch000984.htm
  14. 14. Super Computers 14 Cray-1 1976-1982 Speed: 160 megaflops Cost: $8.8M Cost per Teraflop: $58B The Cray Y-MP 1988-1989 Speed: 2.6 gigaflops Cost: $20M Cost per Teraflop: $7.6B Earth Simulator 2002-2004 Speed: 35.86 teraflops Cost: $540M Cost per Teraflop: $15M https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cray-1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cray_Y-MP https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_Simulator Fun Fact: Xbox One X costs $499 in 2018 and has a speed of 6 teraflops Fun Fact: 20 years later, the Cray Y-MP would have cost you $20 million and barely able to run Windows Vista
  15. 15. Average Historic Price of Ram 15 1985-2018 $859,375.00 $103,880.00 $30,875.00 $1,107.00 $189.00 $12.37 $5.50 $4.94 $4.37 $4.80 $5.20 $5.62 $- $100,000.00 $200,000.00 $300,000.00 $400,000.00 $500,000.00 $600,000.00 $700,000.00 $800,000.00 $900,000.00 $1,000,000.00 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 http://www.statisticbrain.com/average-historic-price-of-ram/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xbox_One#/media/File:Microsoft -Xbox-One-S-Console-FL.jpg https://www.computerhope.com/issues/ch000984.htm Cray-1, 1976 $8,860,000 244 Mhz iPhone XS, 2018 $999 850 Mhz
  16. 16. The World is Changing 16
  17. 17. 17 http://investeddevelopment.com/2013/06/the-impact- of-technology-in-agriculture/ 0 5 10 15 20 25 $- $2,000.00 $4,000.00 $6,000.00 $8,000.00 $10,000.00 $12,000.00 $14,000.00 $16,000.00 $18,000.00 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2018 Employment in Agriculture vs. GDP Growth in U.S. GDP in Billions of Current USD Agricutlure Employment (% of total employement)
  18. 18. 18 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 $- $200.00 $400.00 $600.00 $800.00 $1,000.00 $1,200.00 $1,400.00 $1,600.00 $1,800.00 $2,000.00 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Thousands BillionsDollars Manufacturing Output vs. Employment 1947-2011 Manufacturing Output (left) Manufacturing Employment (right) BEA, BLS https://medium.freecodecamp.org/we-cant-bring-back-the- old-manufacturing-jobs-12214a0ab057
  19. 19. 19Scott Santens – scottsantens.com https://medium.com/basic-income/the-real-story-of-automation- beginning-with-one-simple-chart-8b95f9bad71b
  20. 20. 20 1 2 An ”Earth rover” robot that takes closeup photos of the plants and soil building a forensic map of the field. 3 Future Goals: Planting seeds, caring for the crop, forensically weeding, then harvesting. Prototypes for the other tasks will arrive over the next couple of years. https://medium.com/basic-income/self-driving-trucks-are-going-to-hit-us- like-a-human-driven-truck-b8507d9c5961 Meet ‘Rachel’
  21. 21. 21 38%U.S. jobs taken over by robots within 15 years http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-pwc-robotics- jobs-20170324-story.html
  22. 22. 22 What’s Causing This…
  23. 23. Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI)
  24. 24. Artificial Intelligence 24 How Does AI Benefit You? • Google - Search • Alexa and Siri - Personal assistants • Tesla - Self-driving cars • Netflix – Movie recommendations • Nest - Smart thermostat Artificial Intelligence - The theory and development of computer systems able to perform tasks that normally require human intelligence. https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertadams/2017/01/10/10-powerful- examples-of-artificial-intelligence-in-use-today/2/#27e49aac3c8b
  25. 25. 25 The Race to Acquire Top AI Startups over last 8 years Source/Graphics design: CBInsights https://www.cbinsights.com/research/top-acquirers-ai-startups-ma-timeline/
  26. 26. 26 DeepMind pays 400 A.I. engineers $345,000 each to design ways to eliminate thousands of jobs with robots https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/22/technology/artificial-intelligence- experts-salaries.html?_r=0 Google acquired A.I. Lab DeepMind for $650 million in 2014
  27. 27. AI can predict heart attacks more accurately than doctors 27 American Heart Association’s 8-point checklist accurately detects patients heart risk by 72.8% Algorithms outperformed the 8-point checklist by 7.6% and raising 1.6% fewer false alarms AI system could’ve saved 355 extra lives in a 12-month period out of the 83,000 patient records. 1 2 3 https://www.engadget.com/2017/04/16/ai-can-predict-heart-attacks- more-accurately-than-doctors/ 20 million people die each year due to cardiovascular disease
  28. 28. 28 Google’s Deep Learning AI project diagnoses cancer with 89% accuracy vs. 73% by human doctor http://www.ibtimes.sg/googles-deep-learning-ai-project-diagnoses- cancer-faster-pathologists-8092
  29. 29. 29 Apple Watch Series 4 checks for high and low heart rates and reports irregularities https://www.apple.com/apple-watch-series-4/health/
  30. 30. JPMorgan Automation Software 30 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-28/jpmorgan- marshals-an-army-of-developers-to-automate-high-finance COIN interprets loan agreements in seconds what took lawyers 360,000 hours Bank created its own cloud-computing software making 20,000 developers more productive Bots are expected to handle 1.7 million access requests in 2017, doing the work of 140 people 1 2 3 COIN, Learning Machine Software for JPMorgan Chase and Co.
  31. 31. 31 Robotics
  32. 32. Automated Factory in China 32 Changying Precision Technology Company 60 robot arms working 10 production lines 3 humans monitor robots Before robots arrived, the factory needed 650 human workers now it needs 30 Defect rate dropped by 400% 1 2 3 4 https://medium.freecodecamp.org/we-cant-bring-back- the-old-manufacturing-jobs-12214a0ab057
  33. 33. 33 RightPick collects items at a rate of 500-600/HR-same speed as a human https://qz.com/952240/righthand-robotics-has-automated-a-new-type- of-warehouse-work-that-could-help-amazon-amzn/ RightHand robotics, automates the process of recognizing and picking up items from boxes
  34. 34. 2,4001 Robot vs. 200 People 8 hours 34 https://twitter.com/HumanVsMachine/status/881 174606027030529
  35. 35. 35 Uniqlo replaced 90% of staff at its newly automated warehouse with robots https://qz.com/1419418/uniqlo-cut-90-of-staff-at-one-warehouse- by-replacing-them-with-robots/
  36. 36. 36 Truck Industry
  37. 37. Most Common Jobs in 2014 37 Software Developer Truck Driver Farmer Other NPR, https://medium.com/basic-income/self-driving-trucks-are- going-to-hit-us-like-a-human-driven-truck-b8507d9c5961
  38. 38. 21% Demand for Trucks in 2020 38 https://medium.com/basic-income/self-driving-trucks-are-going-to- hit-us-like-a-human-driven-truck-b8507d9c5961
  39. 39. 39 May 6, 2015, the first self-driving truck hit the American road in Nevada 1 2 Daimler Freightliner Truck- First self-driving truck 3 4 Trucks will be decade-long testing phase, over A million miles before being deemed fit for function Robot trucks don’t need salaries Complete autonomous capability will be here by 2022 and mass market penetration by 2026 https://medium.com/basic-income/self-driving-trucks-are-going-to-hit-us- like-a-human-driven-truck-b8507d9c5961
  40. 40. Tesla Semi set to hit the road 2019 40 https://www.tesla.com/semi
  41. 41. Augmented Reality 41
  42. 42. 42 Title with all capitals over image background Computer Vision Industrial AR applications- Visual inertial odometry and AR mapping technology DAQRI- Worksense Collaborate with your team using a natural combination of video, voice and 3D annotations. Daqri AR Platform Technology https://daqri.com/technology/ar-platform/
  43. 43. UpSkill - Connecting your Workforce through AR 43 Receive tasks guidance through real-time content Track task progress, complete orders, checklists and send media Capture and share knowledge for training purposes https://upskill.io/skylight/skylight-overview/
  44. 44. Google Glass - VR in the Workplace 44 Stay Hands-On A quick ‘OK Glass” can activate the right application during your workflow Work Smarter Access training videos, images annotated with instructions, or quality assurance checklists Instant Expertise Glass can connect you with coworkers; allow them to see what you see with live video stream in real-time 1 2 3 https://x.company/glass/
  45. 45. Infrared thermography for mechanical applications 45 Electrical Systems - Faulty electrical connections and overloaded circuits Mechanical Equipment - Abnormal warm motors or bearing failures Building Applications - Missing insulation, infiltration, or moisture damage Fluid Systems -Line blockages, tank levels, or pipe temperatures 1 2 3 4 Thermovision image heating plant chimney http://www.reliableplant.com/Read/20181/infrared- thermography-mechanical
  46. 46. 46
  47. 47. 50 billion machines will be connected http://www.oecd.org/sti/ieconomy/industrial- internet-at-General-Electric.pdf on the internet by 2020
  48. 48. Vibration Analysis 48 Vibration analysis used to improve internal processes and monitor the total help of facilities. Acme Industrial Acme engineers will attach accelerometers to each of the machines sending vibration data to the Cloud. 48 https://www.losant.com/blog/using-iot-and-machine-learning-for- industrial-predictive-maintenance
  49. 49. Guestroom Automation 49 Starwood hotels implementing smart home make the customer feel comfortable and also increasing energy savings for their hotels. ’Daylight Harvesting’ – Save energy by automatically adjusting the lighting based on natural light detected in the room. https://www.hotel-online.com/press_releases/release/7-trends-for- the-internet-of-things-in-hospitality
  50. 50. If you are tracking 16 meters manually with a labor cost of $16/hour: 50 1 check per day $3,840 1 per hour $92,160 1 per minute* $2,242,560 1 per second IMPOSSIBLE *Dedicated employee sitting in front of meter https://techcrunch.com/2017/03/08/cognitiv-is-using-ai-for- contract-analysis-and-tracking/?ncid=rss
  51. 51. Source: Terrence O’Hanlon reliabilityweb.com https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:63 29363657956302848/
  52. 52. 52 How to Future Proof Your Job
  53. 53. 1 Negative review could cost you 30 customers 53 https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/238501
  54. 54. How AI Could Transform Maintenance Industry 54 • Asset managers using predictive analytics to determine warning system of assets • Automate inspection data and checklists for assets • Automatically generate work orders before broken assets • Aids in knowledge transfer for new hires https://techcrunch.com/2017/03/08/cognitiv-is-using-ai-for- contract-analysis-and-tracking/?ncid=rss
  55. 55. 55 Appendix Recommended reading: ØScott Suntans: The Real Story of Automation ØKevin Drum: You Will Lose Your Job to a Robot ØDarrell Etherington: GM’s Cruise sets special self-driving event ØTristan Greene: Google’s DeepMind breakthroughs at a terrifying pace ØFabricio Teixeira: How AI will impact your routine as a designer ØMatthew Hughes: Las Vegas’ self driving bus Øhttps://twitter.com/iamdevloper/status/926458505355235328

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